The second index beyond the Team Power Ratings is our Best Management/Overachievement Index. To see both index, go here. And that is where we might have gone wrong. Both the Red Sox and Cardinals (especially the Cardinals) performed well below the capabilities of their opponent during the year compared to their stats. The Cardinals won 27 games less than they should have with the Pitching and Batting PEVA ratings their players got. That's a heck of a lot of games, by far the worst in baseball in 2009. We should have taken that into account.
Playoff Predictions (Only Using Team Power Rankings)
|Colorado Rockies||vs.||Philadelphia Phillies|
|WIN (+4 PEVA)|
|Minnesota Twins||vs.||New York Yankees|
|WIN (+18 PEVA)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||vs.||Los Angeles Dodgers|
|WIN (+6 PEVA)|
|Boston Red Sox||vs.||Los Angeles Angels |
|WIN (+8 PEVA)|
And if we had taken that into account for all four division series, our predictions would have looked something like this, and we would have predicted all four series correctly. Of course, it's nothing like hindsight in predictions, so we're just pointing these things out.
Playoff Predictions (Only Team Power Rankings/BMO Index)
Colorado vs. Philadelphia (+1 PEVA/PRW) WIN
Minnesota vs. Yankees (+15 PEVA/PRW) WIN
St. Louis vs. LA Dodgers (+14 PEVA/PRW) WIN
Boston vs. LA Angels of Anaheim (+2 PEVA/PRW) WIN
But now it's time and we have to predict the League Championship Series. And we're going to use both index to do it. And it goes something like this.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees had a Team Power Rating of 223.453 PEVA during the regular season while the Angels came in at 160.009. This gives the Yankees a Power Rating advantage of 63. The Angels had a BMO index of +13 wins while the Yankees had a BMO index of -14 wins. This gives the Angels a 27 advantage. Overall this gives the nod to the Yankees at +36.
Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Yankee victory.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers had a Team Power Rating of 193.985 PEVA during the regular season while the Phils were slightly lower at 178.241. Advantage Dodgers at +15. In the BMO index, the Dodgers were -7 in wins while Philadelphia was -1. Advantage Philadelphia by +6. Overall this gives the nod to the Dodgers at +9. And we hope we are wrong since we're Phillies fans. And we think we're gonna be.
Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Dodgers victory.