Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Playoff Predictions

Playoff predictions, and after the division series, we're 2-2. Well, what went right and what went wrong, that would be the question you, and, we are asking themselves. We did a very simple analysis in the first round. If a team had the higher total team PEVA (player rating) in our Team Power Ratings during the regular season, they got the nod. We didn't get into injuries and who was playing better at the end of the season. If your players were better over the long haul, we gave you the nod. So it was Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals. That seemed to make sense. But something happened on the way to the stadium and as we look further into the PEVA numbers, we're starting to see just what that is.

The second index beyond the Team Power Ratings is our Best Management/Overachievement Index. To see both index, go here. And that is where we might have gone wrong. Both the Red Sox and Cardinals (especially the Cardinals) performed well below the capabilities of their opponent during the year compared to their stats. The Cardinals won 27 games less than they should have with the Pitching and Batting PEVA ratings their players got. That's a heck of a lot of games, by far the worst in baseball in 2009. We should have taken that into account.

Playoff Predictions (Only Using Team Power Rankings)
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

WIN (+18 PEVA)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
of Anaheim

And if we had taken that into account for all four division series, our predictions would have looked something like this, and we would have predicted all four series correctly. Of course, it's nothing like hindsight in predictions, so we're just pointing these things out.

Playoff Predictions (Only Team Power Rankings/BMO Index)

Colorado vs. Philadelphia (+1 PEVA/PRW) WIN
Minnesota vs. Yankees (+15 PEVA/PRW) WIN
St. Louis vs. LA Dodgers (+14 PEVA/PRW) WIN
Boston vs. LA Angels of Anaheim (+2 PEVA/PRW) WIN

But now it's time and we have to predict the League Championship Series. And we're going to use both index to do it. And it goes something like this.

American League
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees had a Team Power Rating of 223.453 PEVA during the regular season while the Angels came in at 160.009. This gives the Yankees a Power Rating advantage of 63. The Angels had a BMO index of +13 wins while the Yankees had a BMO index of -14 wins. This gives the Angels a 27 advantage. Overall this gives the nod to the Yankees at +36.

Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Yankee victory.

National League
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers had a Team Power Rating of
193.985 PEVA during the regular season while the Phils were slightly lower at 178.241. Advantage Dodgers at +15. In the BMO index, the Dodgers were -7 in wins while Philadelphia was -1. Advantage Philadelphia by +6. Overall this gives the nod to the Dodgers at +9. And we hope we are wrong since we're Phillies fans. And we think we're gonna be.

Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Dodgers victory.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Coming Up at Baseball Evaluation

There's a lot on the way at Baseball Evaluation this fall and offseason. We're working to incorporate postseason data and regular season data into the Salary Projection system, and of course, coming with the end of the regular season, will come our Regular Season Player Ratings, as well as the Free Agent Tracker 2010 Salary Projection updates, plus our long term project, the Stat Geek Baseball MySql database.

For an idea of what's coming and when ... with a bit of a concession that the dates are still in flux.

2009 Regular Season Player Ratings (Preliminary) - October 9
Free Agent Tracker 2010 SPRO Update - October 15
2009 Postseason Player Ratings - November 10
2009 Regular Season Player Ratings (Final) - November 15
Stat Geek Baseball 2010 - November 30
MySQL Stat Geek Baseball Database - January 1

There will be other things along the way. Updates to the Best Player Ever lists. Plus predictions, for all sorts of things.

Thanks for making the first year of baseballevaluation.com an eventful year. Stop on back and see what we have in store over the next year as well.