Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Who, What, When About This Year's HOF Class

The candidates have just been announced and the list if chock full of potential Hall of Fame inductees, both within the cadre of new nominees, just off their five year waiting list, and leftover candidates, some in their last year, and more than a few with PED problems, who will vie for the 75% of votes needed for election.  So how would we approach this?  How will the baseball writers who actually vote?  Well, we know the former and can guess at the latter.  Here goes.

As those who've read our ideas on Hall of Fame election in the past know, we're very selective and judicious about the amount of players we think should be in.  We'd likely get rid of a few already there, if that was possible or you could go back in time.  But you can't.  So for us, we only want new Hall of Famers who would be in the Top Half of their position values and only want up to three new inductees per year.  We think two is optimal and there should always be one.  So last year, yes, we would have selected somebody, who in a year like this year might not get in.

Let's go down the list (alphabetically).

Moises Alou - Good player, deserves to be on the list his first year and we think he should remain there for another go around.  But, it's a good possibility he doesn't get the 5% votes required to remain.  Not a HOF player to us.

Jeff Bagwell - As stated in last year's post, we think Bagwell is a HOF player and should eventually get in.  We'd have voted for him last year.  293.606 PEVA points, above the 275.000 threshold where everybody eligible above that, without major PED allegations, is in.  There might be a slight rub there with voters, but no real accusations. But this year there's too many great candidates, and he won't get our vote this year.

Armando Benitez - Should not be on the ballot.

Craig Biggio - Over 3,000 hits says he's going to get in sometime and maybe that time's this year.  Again, too many candidates above him this year for us, but we'll eventually vote for him when the list is lighter. With 226.358 PEVA points, he'd be the #6 rated 2nd baseman in the Hall, even though we know he wasn't always at that position.

Barry Bonds - Second best position player in the PEVA rankings and we do think he'd be in the Hall without taking steroids and augmenting his stats.  No vote from us this year.  Might in the future.

Sean Casey - Should not be on the ballot.

Roger Clemens - See Bonds above, except he's ranked #3 in the pitching PEVA rankings.

Ray Durham - Should not be on the ballot.

Eric Gagne - Should not be on the ballot, even though he had two of the top 10 relief pitching seasons ever.  Not enough of them.

Tom Glavine - WE WOULD VOTE FOR HIM.  Over 300 wins, over 275 PEVA (325.047), and ranked #12 All-Time.

Luis Gonzalez - Better stats than you'd think without looking them up, and nearly 200 PEVA points.  But as an outfielder, that's way down the line and near the bottom of those in the Hall.  Despite those 2591 hits, 354 home runs, 1439 runs batted in, we don't think Gonzalez should ever get in.  But he should remain on the ballot.

Jacque Jones - Should not be on the ballot.

Todd Jones - Should not be on the ballot.

Jeff Kent - Most home runs ever by a 2nd baseman.  He'd be #8 All-Time among Hall of Fame players in PEVA as a 2nd baseman if he got in.  Don't think he'll get in this year; we wouldn't vote for him right now.  But eventually we think he gets in.

Paul Lo Duca - Should not be on the ballot.

Greg Maddux - No doubt about it Hall of Fame player.  Ranked #1 in PEVA pitcher points.  Two of the best seasons of All-Time.  WE WOULD VOTE FOR HIM.  All of the baseball writers should, too, but not all will.  But it will be in the very high 95% plus range.

Edgar Martinez - Just below Molitor in the DH rankings, but he is below.  Not quite good enough, to us, to be in the Hall.

Don Mattingly - Very good player, just not quite good enough for us, to make the Hall.

Fred McGriff - There are 19 first baseman in the Hall of Fame now; McGriff would rank #10 if he got in, which is right on the cut line for us.  Not this year, but we can see a year when we'd be okay with it.

Mark McGwire - See Bonds above, but add one important fact.  We don't think McGwire would have the stats to get in if he hadn't used.  So he shouldn't in.

Jack Morris - Last year for Jack on the regular ballot.  Some think he'll get in because of that.  He's in the middle of the pack, #34 of #63 if he got in.  We wouldn't put Jack in, but it's close.

Mike Mussina - Mike ranks high in PEVA value, above the 275 threshold, but because of the quality of this year's candidates, we won't vote for him this year.  But we would in the future, and he should get in.

Hideo Nomo - Should not be on the ballot.

Rafael Palmeiro - See Mark McGwire.

Mike Piazza - A bit like Jeff Bagwell to us, but would rank even higher, Top 3, All-Time, in HOF catchers, if in.  Not voting for Mike this year, but do think he will eventually get in, but not this year.

Tim Raines - Not quite good enough for us.

Kenny Rogers - Should not be on the ballot.

Curt Schilling - We would have voted for Schilling last year, but he's behind Maddux and Glavine, so not this year.

Richie Sexson - Should not be on the ballot.

Lee Smith - If you are of the belief that specialties should give you special consideration, and lower thresholds, then you probably think Smith deserves consideration.  If you think he was better than Sutter, then you probably think he should be in.  We don't think Sutter should be in.  No from us.

J.T. Snow - Should not be on the ballot.

Sammy Sosa - See Mark McGwire.

Frank Thomas - WE WOULD VOTE FOR HIM.  The Big Hurt.  2468 hits, 521 home runs, 1704 runs batted in, 0.301 batting average, 333.924 PEVA, #28 All-Time among Position Players.

Mike Timlin - Should not be on the ballot.

Alan Trammell - He'd be #11 of #23 in the Hall of Fame among shortstops.  Using our rule of above half already in the Hall, he should get in.  But not this year.

Larry Walker - Not good enough for us.   

Okay, there you have it, for whatever little it may be worth.  It will be interesting to see how things roll out.  Some are predicting a very large class.  We wouldn't be surprised if the three we'd vote for would be the only three who get in though.