Stat Geek Baseball Blog @ baseballevaluation.com

Changing of the Glove

2011-10-14T15:37:00.002-04:00

Well, that really shouldn’t be the title, although it’s appropriate for this discussion on who should win the Gold Gloves of 2011, who will, and where the fielding prowess in the National and American Leagues have shifted. We really think this is the year Derek Jeter won’t win one. The hubbub that went on last year when Derek won another, while many think he’s not a good shortstop at all. (We’re not one of those, just don’t think he’s a Gold Glove candidate with a Range Factor that low.) But let's get going with the discussion, and start first with Jeter's position, shortstop.

Shortstop -

Who Should Win, J.J. Hardy (AL); Troy Tulowitski (NL)
Who Will Win, Alexei Ramirez (AL), Troy Tulowitski (NL)

The amount of good shortstops in the American League has risen in the past several years, so much so, that fielders like Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox might not be the best, although we think he might just win the 2011 prize, and folks like J.J. Hardy of the Orioles or Alcides Escobar of the Royals probably should. It’s funny, but I don’t think people in Milwaukee thought of Hardy as quite this good in the field, but with a fielding percentage of 0.990 and range nearing 5.00 (actually 4.88 A+PO per 9 IP), that’s a deserving combination. For those not too versed in what a great range factor for a shortstop is, there’s few who reach that 5.00 number. This year only Tulowitski reached it for players with over 1,000 innings played. And we do think this year Troy Tulowitski wins another.

Outfield

Who Should Win: Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Markakis, Jacoby Ellsbury (AL); Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Michael Bourn (NL)
Who Will Win: Jacoby Ellsbury, Franklin Gutierrez, Austin Jackson (AL); Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Drew Stubbs (NL)

This is where we are starting to see a changing of the guard, although it might take a few years for the voters to shake it out in this direction. In the National League, Shane Victorino will probably win his third, although he might have been passed by folks like Drew Stubbs and Chris Young. Michael Bourn deserves another, so no changing of the guard there. In the American League, we think the propensity to reward centerfielders will mean Austin Jackson and Jacoby Ellsbury and not Nick Markakis, but it is hard for a right fielder to rise up to the #2 spot in the Field Value ratings, all the way to 1.66. (Only Ellsbury was higher at 1.70) Markakis was durable, sure handed, and threw runners out, all with a range factor above 2. However, that's low compared to his counterparts in centerfield, so we think that will count against him. It never counted against Ichiro, but this year, we think he won't win one. Of course, we didn't think he'd win won last year, and Gold Glove voters are notorious for rewarding history of good play and not the particular year in question.

Catcher
Who Should Win: Alex Avila (AL); Jonathan Lucroy (NL)
Who Will Win: Alex Avila (AL); Yadier Molina (NL)

Yadier Molina will likely win another Gold Glove, but catchers like Jonathan Lucroy should get that honor this year. But he's too new on the block to overcome Molina. Alex Avila is turning into one good catcher/baseball player and his prowess with the bat might just overshadow his ability behind the plate just enough to keep him from a Gold Glove, but he would be deserving and just might have enough attention on that bat to keep him in mind for the glove.

First Base
Who Should Win: Joey Votto (NL); Casey Kotchman (AL)
Who Will Win: Joey Votto (NL); Mark Teixeira (AL)

We're likely wrong about Votto winning this award over Pujols, with the conventional wisdom that Pujols is not only the best hitter in the league, but the best fielder, too. In the American League, Teixeira was a fine fielder again in 2011 and would be a deserved recipient of the award. Field Value rewards it to Kotchman, however, by a slim margin.

Second Base
Who Should Win: Robinson Cano (AL); Mark Ellis (NL)
Who Will Win: Robinson Cano (AL); Brandon Phillips (NL)

It will be a consensus pick when Cano again wins the award for the Yanks, and Ellis split time between both leagues, which will likely keep his vote totals below that of last year's winner, Brandon Phillips.

Third Base
Who Should Win: Evan Longoria (AL); Placido Polanco (NL)
Who Will Win: Evan Longoria (AL); Placido Polanco (NL)

Polanco did not win in 2010 in his first year at the position, losing out to Scott Rolen, but with Rolen's lack of playing time and Polanco's repeat of a very good fielding season despite his injuries, we think Placido deserves to, and will win, the award in 2011. Evan Longoria won last year and will win it again.

For more info on the Field Value rankings and ratings, go to http://baseballevaluation.com/playergrades/fieldvalue.html.

Radical MLB Realignment Not Necessary, What About Expansion

2011-06-22T14:52:00.002-04:00

It's gonna be a surprise to most, but it's just as surprising to us that the subject has not been broached in the debate over Major League Baseball realignment, with some of the radical ideas that are being thrown around. Get rid of the American and National Leagues. That's throwing one hundred years of history down the drain. Go to a fifteen team, one division format. Talk about getting rid of rivalries and expanding travel times. Put the DH in everywhere. That's right, get rid of traditional baseball altogether. But in all this hubbub about what's gonna be done to get those extra playoff teams involved and what the players union will agree to as far as divisions and playoffs and no DH or all DH, plus a new baseball draft slotting system for signing bonuses, the solution may be staring them right in the face and would solve more problems than it would cause, and we're pretty sure the players union would love it, ... Expansion.

Yes, we know that expansion in many purists minds is a dirty word. It dilutes the product. There's not enough pitching to go around already (oh, wait a minute, right now there's too much good pitching and not enough hitting, so we'll forestall that debate for now.) But in reality, neither might be true. Since the last two teams were added in 1998, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays, there has been approximately 16% more people added to the census of the USA. Doing quick math, ... that means there would be no further dilution, if all other things were equal which they surely are not, if baseball added 4.8 more teams. So our proposal for adding two teams, with each league now having 16, parceled out in four divisions with one wild card playoff team per league, is far from problematic on the dilution front. And we even agreed to five teams per league in the playoffs per Bud, even though we don't really like it.

But can Major League Baseball handle two additional teams economically in this poor economy. Well, ... the answer is likely yes. First off, the additional two teams would begin play in 2014, giving them three years to choose the location, owners, get stadium plans in order, and more. Hopefully the economy rebounds by then. But second, and more importantly, Major League Baseball has seen a revenue boom since the last two expansions. In 1993, total revenues for MLB were $1.87 billion. In 1998, total revenues for MLB were $2.479 billion. Six years after the last expansion, they had grown to $4.1 billion. And the last several years, even during the downturn. $6.1 billion to $6.5 billion to $6.6 billion to $7 billion. That's growth folks and there's more to come.

The major problems in baseball finances these days come from the personal financial problems of two current owners in Los Angeles and New York, and neither of their poor circumstances come from the profitability of their clubs, two of the largest and traditionally most successful. They have to do with specific issues in the McCourt family and the Bernie Madoff and Wilpon ponzi scheme relationship. And it might even help to give them part of the expansion fee pie, which surely would grow significanlty from the $130 million per in 1998.

So we say now is the time to throw off the shackles of expansion fever and get two new franchises on board over the next three years. Give us traditional American and National Leagues, a division race and rivalries to root for, and I'd even throw in let's get rid of the DH along the way. Seems like a good tradeoff for the union with 50 new jobs and $150 million payroll dollars to throw around that we can lose 14 DH's. But hey, I'd even keep the one league only DH if that was a dealbreaker.

And what about the scheduling. 4 divisions of 4 each in both leagues keeps rivalries, pushes down travel costs, and makes more sense than you'd think. No, we're not crazy about only 4 teams in a division, but it's better than 15. With 4x4 leagues, the following is possible.

You'd play 18 games against your 3 division opponents = 54 games.
You'd play 8 games against your other 12 league opponents - 96 games.
You'd play 3 games against one division of 4 in interleague play - 12 games.

For a total of 162. And as far as interleague. Every other year you play your corresponding division for those great rivalry series. On the off year, you play another division. Keeps parity in scheduling for the division schedule that way.

As far as the playoffs. 4 division winners. 1 wildcard. Worst division winner vs. wildcard in a one game playoff. Quick. Simple. Easy. Lots to root for.

So here goes our divisions, with two new teams added in the Las Vegas Silverados and the Mexico City (or Monterey) Iguanas. Yes, we know there's other candidates, but we'll start with this. And the only changes of leagues of today's teams are Arizona and Tampa Bay switching leagues. Yes, we know Arizona won't like this, but hey, we're okay with getting rid of the DH, too, which had been one of the things they didn't like.

American League
East - New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
Central - Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins
South - Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Mexico City Iguanas, Arizona Diamondbacks
West - Seattle Mariners, LA Angels of Anaheim, Oakland A's, Las Vegas Silverados

National League
East - New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates
Central - Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers
South - Tampa Bay Rays, Florida Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros
West - Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies

So there it is, our opinion about one possibility of where baseball goes as far as realignment. And it seems less radical to us than the suggestions we've seen, and might even grow the revenue pie to boot.

Opening Day Ramblings

2011-03-31T09:35:00.002-04:00

Hooray. Hooray. Hooray. It's opening day. And no matter whom you root for, no matter where they play, it's opening day. It's opening day. It's opening day.

Okay, so that's not good haiku or even much of anything, but it's a cheer that almost every baseball fan has when this day, March 31, 2011, arrives. It seems to have come very fast for us, but here it is. And we thought we'd throw out a few opening day ramblings that are rumbling around our brain right now, from the nonsense to the off the cuff predictions that have nothing to do with PEVA or SPRO or any of those other new stats baseballevaluation.com has come up with. Well, not much to do with them anyway.

1) 60% of the opening day starters this year, who were eligible for the draft, were drafted in the first round. That's remarkable really, and not what we would have thought. Yes, we always knew that being a first rounder indicated a greater chance of making it to the majors. And a second rounder behind, but a decent chance, too, with rounds lower than that pretty much a flip of the coin. But 60%. So folks. On draft day this June, pay a whole lot of attention to who your favorite team chooses, because it apparently is pretty important that they choose well.

2) Will this be the opening day when the greatest amount of team face snow in the forecast. We're pretty used to seeing that in Colorado, and formerly in Montreal, but it seems that in the northeast a good amount of teams could face this today and tomorrow. Nothing like mittens at a baseball game, and I'm not talking about only in the stands.

3) We think the Phillies are gonna sprint out of the gates, even though their lineup has taken a few hits with the injuries to Utley and the departure of Werth. We think Ben Francisco, and later in the year, Domonic Brown, are gonna fill in pretty well for Werth, and we don't like their bench at all, but pitching is gonna keep them in tons of games. For some reason, we're not that concerned about the loss of Lidge for awhile. The last two years haven't seen consistent production out of Brad anyway.

4) Who will have one of the best seasons ever and join the list of players in our Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Well, we think Troy Tulowitski is gonna be fantastic, and think the park in Boston is gonna make Adrian Gonzalez a household name, just to state a few. Hey, and take a look at our book and think about buying it. I know we're not a household name like Baseball America, but those 5,000 hours of research into who was the best ever in the history of baseball gave us a pretty unique and interesting take on the subject. And we need your support to carry it on. Thanks.

5) Who will be the surprise team of 2011? Well, we don't know about surprise, but we do think the Milwaukee Brewers are gonna contend for the National League title and wouldn't be surprised if the Oakland A's won the American League West. We don't think they will, coming up a couple wins short, but we wouldn't be surprised.

6) We're really hoping this is the year Bud Selig stops trying to come up with new ideas about expanding the playoffs and let's baseball succeed where it is. Com'n, unless you have a team in the first round, you already don't care about it. I mean, we follow baseball pretty darn closely and I couldn't care less, if my team isn't in it, about the playoffs until they're playing for the right to go to the World Series.

7) How many people are gonna be buying ice cream at the park on Opening Day when they can get a snow cone from the arm rest on their seat?

Well, that's enough nonsense from us for now. Enjoy Opening Day, baseball fans, no matter what the weather in your city is like. Here's hoping you have a great baseball season in 2011 and that your team wins more games than anyone is predicting.

Staff
Baseballevaluation.com

American League Team Predictions 2011

2011-03-18T11:53:00.000-04:00

American League

	Wins	Loss
American League East
New York Yankees	97	65
Boston Red Sox *	90	72
Tampa Bay Rays	76	86
Baltimore Orioles	76	86
Toronto Blue Jays	71	91
American League Central
Detroit Tigers	86	76
Chicago White Sox	84	78
Minnesota Twins	82	80
Cleveland Indians	70	92
Kansas City Royals	65	97
American League West
Texas Rangers	92	70
Oakland A's	84	78
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	81	81
Seattle Mariners	71	91

Wild Card Winner - Boston Red Sox

Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2011 to wins and losses.

American League East
There are a whole lot of people who think the Boston Red Sox made the biggest gains this offseason and will best the Yankees for the top of the American League East in 2011. We're not one of them. While the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will add a new dynamic to their offense, we're just not as sure about their pitching. Of course, a big rebound by Josh Beckett will go a long way toward mitigating that concern and it's not like we're fans of the Rafael Soriano huge contract, either to pitch in the eighth inning or an eventual ninth if needed. We just think the offense of New York, with pillers at every position and new emerging players like Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner will take the cake. But don't fret Red Sox fans, we still think you're gonna make the playoffs as the real Wild Card, before Bud adds another spud to the Wild Card mix in another year or two.

Unfortunately for the rest of the division, they're gonna be playing for themselves as we see no way for the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Rays to contend for the playoffs in 2011. But there are some quiet good things happening in Baltimore as they surround young players like Markakis, Wieters, and Jones with veterans who know how to win. We just wish they knew how to pitch. And there's gonna be a lull in Ray land until all those draft picks they gained from losing free agents come of age. Hopefully Evan Longoria won't get too frustrated by then. The Blue Jays are really counting on young pitchers to make up for the two years of losing their top gun, plus a newly found power hitter in Bautista remaining so for years. We like some players here such as Lind and Hill, plus Drabek in out years, but not this year.

American League Central
This is going to be an exciting race that could go down to the last week between three teams. And even though we're picking, statistically, the Detroit Tigers, to come out on top, it really could be any of the three. There's things to like about all three. Miguel Cabrera and young pitchers in Verlander and Porcello coming of age. In Chicago, the south side has added what we think will end up being the best offensive free agent signing of the offseason in Adam Dunn, and they have just enough pitching to keep competitive in the Central with Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and the rest of the cast. If Minnesota can get and stay healthy, they might even be the favorite, but the injury woes of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, and to a lesser extent, Joe Mauer, will go a long way to determining the winner here. We actually think all three are bound to have great years and rebound from last season, but for now, the shuffle index goes with Detroit, winning in two games over Chicago, and four games over Minnesota. It's going to be a fascinating time around the Great Lakes this year. Give the Indians and Royals a couple more years and we think you're gonna see some special things from these teams. Kansas City has, in almost all the experts opinions, the best farm system in baseball with prospects at all corners. Think three years down the line, but they are coming. Some of the comers are already there for Cleveland, but the young players they gained from trades like Lee to Philadelphia, are gonna have growing pains. Donald, Carrasco, and others will start to pay dividends in 2011, but not large ones just yet. And we are rooting for a complete return of Grady Sizemore to the greatness everybody saw in him two to three years ago.

American League West
We didn't foresee the rise of the Texas Rangers last year. But this season, we do see them repeating as AL West champs. Probably don't have them in the World Series again though. And that young crew at Oakland is going to make a lot of waves with a dynamic pitching staff of Anderson, Braden, Gonzalez, and more. We don't think they have enough offense to win 90 games, which we think it would take to overcome Texas, but there's going to be more than a few teams not wanting to take that road trip to the Oakland Coliseum (and it's not because of the stadium) and face those young arms. We think the Angels have just enough to hang around awhile and finish near 0.500. Just don't think they have enough to contend through September. We do, however, like some of their arms as well and expect good years from Weaver, Santana, and Haren. But they could have used one of those stellar free agents to drop into Anaheim and prop up the offense. For Seattle, they have two of the most dynamic players in the game in Ichiro and Felix. Unfortunately, there's just not enough others around, although some are young and good, to win in 2011. But don't give up hope, we were wrong about the Rangers last year.

National League Team Predictions 2011

2011-03-17T11:48:00.000-04:00

National League

	Wins	Loss
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies	98	64
Atlanta Braves	88	74
Florida Marlins	78	84
Washington Nationals	76	86
New York Mets	76	86
National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals *	89	73
Milwaukee Brewers *	89	73
Cincinnati Reds	86	76
Chicago Cubs	77	85
Houston Astros	70	92
Pittsburgh Pirates	66	98
National League West
San Francisco Giants	92	70
Los Angeles Dodgers	88	74
Colorado Rockes	82	80
San Diego Padres	77	85
Arizona Diamondbacks	75	87
NL Central Winner - St. Louis Cardinals Wild Card Winner - Milwaukee Brewers

Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2011 to wins and losses. Shuffle Index has been adjusted to reflect injury to Adam Wainwright; see explanation below.

National League East
It's really a huge change since their World Series championship in 2008 for the Philadelphia Phillies. This team is all about pitching with a big four in Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels in which every one of them could contend for the Cy Young Award. Their PEVA preseason shuffle pitching total of 129.754 is huge. How huge you might say? Is it best ever huge? Well, not quite, but if they perform up to their pitching level of 2010, it would be the fifth highest total in the history of the game. That's pretty big. But there's been a decline, it seems, on the offensive side. When you're missing Pat Burrell, (yes, we said Pat Burrell. You did notice him winning another World Series in San Francisco last year) Jason Werth, and perhaps for some of the season, Chase Utley, it hurts. Fortunately for Philly, they might only have to score 3 runs to win on a lot of nights. There are some who think this team could win 110 games. It could, but only if the offense rebounds to the way it used to score runs. Right now, the stats say 98 wins, but we wouldn't be surprised if there were more. The Atlanta Braves are a good team and getting better all the time. With the addition of Dan Uggla in the middle of their lineup, along with old stars like Chipper, and new ones like Jason, we predict a lot of wins for the Braves this year and contention for a Wild Card slot with the likes of St. Louis, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers. Down the Eastern Division line, the Nationals of Washington are going to be better than people think. We wouldn't have signed Jason Werth to that contract, but if he can perform like he did in 2010 with Ryan Zimmerman becoming a force at 3B there and on a national stage, they might move up the standings some. Might need that Strasberg fellow to do more than that though. Florida is likely to edge them out for third spot, however. They have their own youngsters on the rise there in Mike Stanton and better pitching. And those Mets. I guess if they get healthy players, they could get more wins, but there seems to be a culture there that would be better off changed. We don't think that change is now.

National League Central
Yes, we've adjusted the PEVA shuffle index to reflect the loss of Adam Wainwright for the season to the St. Louis Cardinals. We don't usually do this, but it seemed appropriate since his PEVA factor from 2010 was so high (he might have been the 2nd best pitcher in baseball last year) and we know he's out for the year. And how much is this gonna cost the Cards? We think in the range of 9 wins. But guess what, this team is so good, they're still gonna win 89 times and edge out the Milwaukee Brewers in a one game playoff for the title. Exciting, isn't it! But don't fret, fans of Fielder, Braun, Wolf, and Greinke, you're still gonna make the playoffs. But neither of these tasks is gonna be easy as the offensive juggernaut that is the Cincinnati Reds, is bound to win more than a few contests. And if their pitching holds up, we wouldn't be surprised if the Reds took the top spot and knocked one of the other two from the playoff round. For the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates, this might be a long year. We do not like what the Cubs have been doing over the last decade in constructing a team and we haven't seen enough change yet to think they're bound to contend. We think the Astros, or Phillies retread south, will be better than many think and could surprise for awhile. We've always liked those past Phils like Happ and Bourn. They're better than many think. And oh, those Pirates. Think Royals without as much coming from the farm.

National League West
Pitching, pitching, and more pitching keeps coming at you in that beautiful ballpark on the bay and we don't see it stopping any time soon. A repeat in the NL West by the Giants, who added some nice pieces on the offensive side with the addition of Miguel Tejada, is in order, although we do see the LA Dodgers making them run for their money. Colorado has been signing their young players to long term contracts and see this version of the Rockies as having tons of potential. So do we. Just don't think it will be this year. For San Diego and Arizona. Just too many losses in players and victories to add up to contending seasons. They'll pitch well in Padre land and hit well in Diamondback territory, but their lack of punch on the other side of the ball will see that stacking up losses at a higher pace than their fans would like in 2011.

PEVA Shuffle Index 2011

2011-03-16T09:23:00.003-04:00

PEVA Shuffle Index - Batting Power Rankings

March 16, 2011 - The Hot Stove league is behind us and preseason games are about to give way to the regular season. And then we'll know, won't we. Just who did the best job of the off-season and shuffled their lineup into a juggernaut, or not. And it's funny. With all the yammer about that great pitching rotation in Philadelphia, or that great team in St. Louis that just lost the second best pitcher of last season, or about those Yanks and Sox, the team that may have made the best overall splash of the offseason, but did it very quietly, was the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hmmm. I wonder if that'll mean those Dodger blue will contend with their Giant foes for the title this year. But we're getting ahead of ourselves, or at least diving into the overall effect pool, so before we go too far afield, let's get back to the topic at hand. Who has done the best offseason job in the PEVA Shuffle index for batters. Well, it's another blast from the past team, ... those Baltimore Orioles.

Top Five
1. Baltimore Orioles - No, Cal isn't coming back to play, but somehow, this squad has done a pretty nice job of adding productive offseason players this year. Yes, they're a bit gimpy, ... see Vladimir Guerrero, and Derrick Lee, but they are a whole lot better than what was there last season, and those two old warhorses look pretty good surrounded by the up and coming young stars of Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. Never really heard about them, ... well, we get the feeling that you will. And let's not forget Mark Reynolds coming over from Arizona. Yes, he'll strike out alot, and that can be a problem. But he's gonna hit a bunch of homers out of Camden Yards and make for some interesting games. Unfortunately for Oriole fans, the pitching staff didn't make as many strides, so you might be looking at football scores, but it will be interesting.

2. Texas Rangers - Geez, the club that lost Vlad comes in at number #2. What's up with that! Well, what's up is that even though they made that subtraction, they added three bats with solid credentials. One big stick in Adrian Beltre, and a couple smaller ones in Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba. Now we're not big fans of Adrian, but maybe that's just us, and we'll have to see whether this second big contract, and a hitter's park, will work out better than the first one in a pitcher's park. But for now, he's the big part of why the Texas Rangers have made the #2 spot on this shuffle list.

3. Boston Red Sox - Not alot to say about this. Pretty simple really. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Enough said.

4. Chicago White Sox - For some reason we think the White Sox got the best of free agency when they signed Adam Dunn. No, he's not a gazelle anywhere in the field, but he's one of the most consistent power hitters in the game who's not considered great, and added to the power already on the south side, we think the White Sox are gonna contend for the Central title with Detroit and Minnesota all year long.

5. Oakland A's - No big time moves for the moneyball crowd, but the additions of David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and and Hideki Matsui will provide a better offense for those good young pitchers to pitch behind. Don't be surprised if they contend, although they may fall just short in the end.

Bottom Five
26. Florida Marlins - Dan Uggla can hit, and now he's doing it in Atlanta. And I'm sorry, but super sub Omar Infante is not an All-Star caliber player. Yes, they're not gonna be counting on him to carry them, that'll be up to the young guns like Mike Stanton, but as far as experienced major leaguers, the Marlins took a step back. But they're used to it.

27. Philadelphia Phillies - Focused on pitching by adding Cliff Lee and losing Jason Werth gets you into this bottom five.

28. San Diego Padres - Any team that loses Adrian Gonzalez is gonna take a hit.

29. Tampa Bay Rays - We're having a sale. They all must go, except Evan Longoria. And now they're gone, but hey, Tampa Bay has so many draft picks in 2011, they'll be able to field one pretty good team in six years or so. Hopefully, for Tampa fans, it won't take that long.

30. Toronto Blue Jays - Second year in a row, they've taken the last spot. That's no way to run an airline.

PEVA Shuffle Index - Pitching Power Rankings

March 15, 2011 - It's hard to believe if you're a Philly fan, but the best pitchers in the game want to pitch in your bandbox. Last year, Roy Halladay helped Philly to the #3 spot in the positive pitching shuffle rankings, and this year it's Cliff Lee who puts them into the top spot.

Who has done the best in the PEVA Shuffle for pitchers.

Top Five
1. Philadelphia Phillies - Okay, we already stated the primary lead, but let's not forget, lead number #2. They now also have a full year of Roy Oswalt.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers - Even though at a lower scale than the Phillies and their two big guns, the Dodgers have quietly added 21.898 PEVA points to the pitching staff (Philadelphia added 29.097). Jon Garland won 14 games last year; that's not too shabby. And Ted Lilly will be on staff for the whole year as Oswalt will. Add to that the minor, but important additions of Matt Guerrier and Blake Hawksworth. We get the feeling the Dodgers will surprise some folks this season.

3. Milwaukee Brewers - Zach Grienke won the AL Cy Young in 2009; he's now on staff. When you add pitching to those boppers, it might be a season of fireworks in Brew Crew land.

4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Yes, even though those Angels seem to be in a decreasing mode the last couple years as they missed out on free agent after free agent, and lost some of their own, they made a few nice changes on their pitching staff between the start of last season and this one. Dan Haren back for a full year and Hisinori Takahashi on board as well.

5. Florida Marlins - Took some hits on the offensive side of the ball, but with the additions of Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, Dustin Richardson, and Javier Vasquez, things look up. And if Vasquez pitches as well as he usually does in any place not named New York, this positive impact could even be greater.

Bottom Five
26. Seattle Mariners - The Cliff Lee era of Seattle lasted a very short time, none of it is going to happen in 2011.

27. Houston Astros - Ditto for Roy Oswalt, although we actually think the addition of J.A. Happ is gonna end up being very good for them.

28. San Diego Padres - Jon Garland is now pitching north of here, although with this ballpark, we're guessing some of their young pitchers will be able to fill in the gap.

29. Toronto Blue Jays - Last year, it was their best pitcher, Roy Halladay going south; this year, it was their best pitcher, Shawn Marcum, going west. Not a good trend in a division that includes Yanks and Sox.

30. Tampa Bay Rays - Matt Garza and relievers de jeur flying the fish coup. Time to wade into the kiddy pool.

PEVA Shuffle Index 2011

It's Gonna Be A Player's Arbitration Year

2011-01-19T13:28:00.005-05:00

There's not a whole lot a real good number crunching GM can say. Hey, don't you know there's a recession going on? We can't possibly give Francisco Liriano $5m!

That ship has sailed, that plane has flown, that Elvis has left not only the building, but he's residing now in Reno after retirement from that Las Vegas gig.

When a cadre of GMs stepped to the plate during the first two weeks of January as they prepared their arbitration numbers and broke the proverbial bank for their players who had achieved that status and awarded contracts way beyond the norm, or prudent, in order to keep them from the arb table, there's no use almost anyone getting into that argument. The argument is lost. Prince Fielder, who's at least a very good to great player, was awarded the highest amount in history with a $15.5m one year deal. A player like Kyle Kendrick, ... Kyle Kendrick for sake, was awarded $2,450,000. He'd have been ecstatic with $1,609,000, which is where the SPRO salary projection system pegged him. This is a man with an above MLB average ERA, and although we actually like Kyle, most teams have a half dozen guys toiling in their minors who could step in right now and perform to that ERA and get the major league minimum, $414,000.

Matt Capps got $7.15 million after one good year; geez, didn't he used to be someone the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals didn't really want a little more than that one year ago after he posted an ERA of 5.80 in 2009?

Okay, we'll stop now. You get the picture. Salaries are rising in professional sports, and particularly baseball and their arbitration eligibles this year. Somehow, someone should have reminded somebody that the public who pays their salaries don't have jobs.

The Shock of This Years HOF Election

2011-01-06T08:30:00.002-05:00

No, it's not in who made it, or even in who came close. We predicted that Bert Blylevin and Roberto Alomar would be in this year, even though we'd have preferred Jeff Bagwell over one of them, but recognized that he wouldn't make it. Thought his percentage was about where it would be, in the middle of the electorate pack. But the shock of this election, ... no doubt about it for us, ... was in the one and done candidacy of one of the best pitchers of his age, yet below the radar for most, Kevin Brown.

Ask most baseball fans who Kevin Brown was and you'll likely get a shrug. There's the reason, folks, he didn't get in. He's also getting that shrug from the writers. But that's just not fair. Kevin Brown, during some years, was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Yes, he moved from team to team to team. And that hurts. No, he didn't pitch as long at the top of his game as he should have. We recognize that, too. However, there were those 211 wins sprinked across the baseball landscape of Texas, Baltimore, Florida, San Diego, the Dodgers, and the Yankees. From 1996 to 2000, he won 82 games and pitched over 230.0 innings each year, some of that during the peak of the steroid era. His ERA those years had a low of 1.89 and a high of 3.00.

Let's track those years and how he ranked among all pitchers for those 5 seasons.
1996 - #2 behind John Smoltz
PEVA 40.004 (#65 best pitching year in baseball history)
1997 - #9 behind Clemens, Maddux, Martinez, Schilling, Neagle, Randy Johnson, Kile, Pettite
PEVA 22.694
1998 - #2 behind Maddux
PEVA 42.712 (#47 best pitching year in baseball history)
1999 - #3 behind Pedro and Randy Johnson
PEVA 29.265
2000 - #4 behind Martinez, Maddux, Johnson
PEVA 23.960

Only future Hall of Famers above him.

Oh, sure, he was pretty good those years, but overall, he didn't have enough wins. Maybe that's an okay reason to keep him out of the HOF, but it's certainly not enough to kick him out after the first year of eligibility.

And BTW. Don Drysdale had 209 wins. Hal Newhouser 207. Pedro Martinez has 219 and he's gonna get in in the first year. And let's not rank on his winning percentage. Kevin Brown was 211 and 144. 59.4%. Hey, I wanted Bert to get in, but his winning percentage was 53.4%. Brown's career ERA was 3.28, Blylevin 3.31, Jack Morris (the new darling of the not yet in crowd) 3.90. And Brown pitched in a much more difficult era to pitch than either.

There needs to be a do-over here and the writers who vote should be ashamed. Again, I'm okay that a pitcher like Kevin Brown is on the outside looking in, but he should be on the outside looking in after he gets the same 15 years consideration of any other pitcher with more than 200 victories. If after those years, he still is not in the Hall, so be it. He's not an automatic lock to us, but better than a bunch of others already in.

And at the end of the day, perhaps even after the Veterans Committee considers Brown way down the line, he'll might be the best pitcher in baseball history not to make the Hall of Fame. Geez, this is one time I hope those men on the VC quickly rectify this overlook, and at least give Brown a fair shot to make his case the same way Blylevin did and Jack Morris will.

To check out more about Brown and where he ranks in baseball history, buy the Stat Geek Baseball, Best Ever Book, now in the updated 2011 version.

Our Ballot for the Hall

2011-01-04T10:15:00.004-05:00

Okay, we don't have one, but if we did, what would our ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2011 look like. It would be short. Our philosophy about the Hall of Fame is that it is a special place for special players and don't like it when marginal candidates enter. However, our philosophy, at least as far as who will get into the Hall of Fame is changing. We acknowledge that election has alot to do with positions and where players rank among players who played at catcher or shortstop or first base did, and we'll now take that into consideration. But we still think election should be rare. How rare? Only no doubt about it candidates plus about one other per year. In the average year, we think there should be two players elected; if there are three no doubts, then a maximum of three, and never less than one. Okay, that's our philosophy, not saying it's a good one.

Here goes our application of that philosophy for 2011. There is only one no doubt about it candidate for us and it won't be one that everybody agrees with.

We vote for: Jeff Bagwell.
Why: In Stat Geek Baseball's PEVA rankings of best offensive players in baseball history, Bagwell has 293.606 PEVA Regular Season points. Every player with more than 275.000 who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is already in Cooperstown. That's a no doubt about it for us. Add in 449 HR, 1529 RBI, and a 0.297 batting average. Add in the fact that he's the best player in the history of the Houston Astros, too.
Why He Probably Won't Make It This Year: Most HOF voters will not think he's a First Year and In type of player. Not dominant enough for them. And they don't think 1500 RBI is magic like 500 HR used to be.

We vote for: Bert Blylevin
Why: Because he's the best player just below the No Doubt About Its not to be in and this is his last year. PEVA points of 271.050 regular season is just below the 275.000 automatic line, and his 287 wins are just below 300. And we don't hold those 250 losses against him as much as others might, because of the teams he played for. A 3.31 ERA, even though he pitched 22 years, is pretty good, too.
Why He Will Make It This Year: Second to last year of eligibility and we don't think the writers will want to make him wait out that final year or until the Veterans Committee. Plus he was so close last year.

Who'll Also Get In This Year That We Won't Vote For: Roberto Alomar
Why: Not an automatic inclusion for us, and we already voted for Blylevin. Alomar is gonna make it however, and we won't argue against it. He would be the 7th highest ranked second basemen in the Hall, of 19 in, if elected. And it's fine with us to elect someone in the top half of his position. We just wouldn't do it this year.

Who Won't Get In This Year, but eventually will: Kevin Brown and Barry Larkin
Why: Kevin Brown was a lot better than many folks remember, but it will take more than a few years until he gets elected. His lack of wins, 211, will hurt him, but eventually people will realize that Brown may have been a pitcher in the mold of Don Sutton and Fergie Jenkins and eventually vote him in. He would be ranked #16 All-Time among HOF members today in PEVA total, and that would be among 61 already in. Barry Larkin is not someone will will vote for, ... just think he'd be below the half way mark in shortstops already in the Hall and there are too many of them in there already, 21. But we think the voters will vote him in, and he's certainly in the class of Pee Wee Reese and Ozzie Smith, but we likely wouldn't have voted for them either.

Who Will Likely Never Make It: Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro. And it's not just the PED issue, although that will be the one that doesn't allow them to be included for most. They're just not automatic Hall of Fame guys to me and with the PED cloud in there as well, not gonna make it, at least from the vantage point of today.

Well, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see who's in for 2011 or not. It'll be interesting to see where the new candidates sit after that day. How far up the percentage totals people like Kevin Brown are and if this year greets Bert with a HOF nod. We hope it does.

Contract Reach Back No More

2010-12-09T11:13:00.003-05:00

Well, that title is an odd one, I realize, and it hasn't really gone completely away, but if the trends seen in the early free agent contracts are any true indication, the days of the full reach back four years to find a good year to justify a high contract are on the downside. Now what do we mean and what are we talking about? We mean. Very few contracts are now being given out to players who were good four years ago, but haven't done much in the last three, at high "former glory" dollars. And this trend, that only existed for about five years up to last years, is now returning to a last three year look.

Now, there's still some of the "he used to be good and might be again" dollars thrown into these contracts. But it is significantly diminished. And it should be. SPRO projections currently include the look back provision, even though we disagreed with it when it came into play about the year 2005. And if trends continue, when the mid off-season adjustments are made, it will be diminished.

And who are we thinking proves this point. Look at the contract of J.J. Putz. In some past years, he would still be rewarded as if the Seattle days of 2006 and 2007 were the basis for his contract, i.e. being payed as if he were a dominant closer, but while the 2 year $10,000,000 contract recently signed throws some respect toward those years, it is predominantly being based on his good 2010 campaign and poorer two season before. It's even more noticeable with a pitcher like Aaron Harang. Using the former logic of reaching back to a year like he had in 2007 when he was a dominant force, his recent contract acknowledges that he has that possibility, but is not paying him at a rate that thinks he'll probably get there. With the SPRO RAVE lookback, he'd be worth north of $9 million per year; without it, you're looking at $2.4 million. The Padres are paying him $4 million, more than his recent years say he deserves, but not nearly what past glory has in the reach back days of contracts would compute.

Now maybe this will change back again as more contracts become signed for 2011, but we just wanted to note the trend we're seeing today, and applaud it. Finally, general managers and the economy have come together to ask the question; if he hasn't been very good for the last three years, let's make him prove he can get back to the former level again, instead of paying him as if he will.

Of course, that doesn't explain the $10,000,000 contract given to Carlos Pena, now does it?

Not Jeter Again, the Gold Glove Debate

2010-11-11T08:46:00.003-05:00

Let's start right off here and put some things to rest. No, we don't think that Derek Jeter should be given a gold glove, but, as much as we think that's a mistake, we don't think he's the worst fielding shortstop in MLB as some others have stated and some statistics, i.e. UZR, seem to suggest. But, come on, folks who vote for the Gold Glove awards and witness game after game from the manager's bench, you had to have seen others in your league you think we better, even if you've never seen a UZR or even the more traditional, and one we favor, Range Factor stats.

Our Fielding Metric, Field Value, values Jeter as the 11th best shortstop in Major League Baseball in 2010. (For more discussion on this, you can visit the Bleacher Report article, which we thank them for mentioning us.) He's durable, he's reliable, he's sure-handed and accurate with his throws, but he just doesn't get to enough balls to justify the highest mark. We think #11 is a pretty good rank for this Yankee. There is a lot of value in having a shortstop that makes the plays he gets to; would you rather have Rafael Furcal and that cannon arm, plus all those errors. We wouldn't. But the fact that Jeter is amongst the worst in Range Factor, which calculates, with no interpretation, the amount of balls a player gets to that turn into outs (and you can interpret beyond that to ones he gets to, but don't). His Range Factor of 3.78 is amongst the lowest of those with enough innings to be ranked, #50 of 54. We agree, that's not good, and when you compare it to the Gold Glove winner in the National League, Troy Tulowitski, at 5.06, it really means that Jeter gets to 25.3% less balls that Tulowitski does. When compared to Alexie Ramirez of the White Sox, who we would have given the AL Gold Glove to, he gets to 22.7% less balls. That's too many for us to overlook, and while the numbers speak to not denigrating Jeter to the lowest of the low levels of shortstop fielding, it does yell out "Not Jeter Again."

Our Silver Mitt Awards pointed out a few other curious selections, although at least from the National League standpoint, there were very few that we have issue with. Six of the eight winners of our awards (we don't rank the pitchers) and the Gold Gloves are the same; Pujols, Phillips, Tulowitski, Victorino, Bourn, and Molina. We would have chosen Placido Polanco over Scott Rolen at third, but it's perfectly understandable why the voters didn't choose a first year thirdbaseman without a cannon arm for the Gold Glove. Still think his numbers say he deserved it. Polanco is more sure-handed and with better range at this point in Rolen's career. The main discrenpency on the NL side is with Carlos Gonzalez winning the third outfield spot. Look, Gonzalez is not bad, for a left fielder, but there's few major league managers, if they had the choice of selecting another outfielder for defense, who would choose Gonzalez over folks like Andres Torres, Drew Stubbs, or Marlon Byrd. For a left fielder, his 1.96 Range Factor is good, not Brett Gardner good, but good.

In the American League, it wasn't just the Jeter selection that had us perplexed, as our awards only agreed 37.5% of the time with Teixeira, Cano, and Franklin Gutierrez those three of eight. And we can live with selections such as Longoria and Mauer at their positions, even though we believe there were better candidates and think that those two profit from great offensive numbers when voters think of fielding. At #7 in our rankings, both are good defensive players, we just think A.J. Pierzynski and Matt Weiters were better in the AL catching ranks, and that Jose Lopez was the best third baseman in both leagues. Yes, he had a slightly worse fielding percentage, but was 12.8% better with range. But it's in the outfield where our biggest disagreement would come.

Brett Gardner is one of the best fielders in baseball, and that's even with the fact that he's relegated to playing left field, because Granderson is patrolling center. With a Range Factor of 2.22, a strong arm, and good hands, he's just a bit better fielder than his counterpart in left who won the award, Carl Crawford. But it's close. With Ichiro, we think the numbers show that he might have won his award this year on past performance. He's still good, maybe still great, and makes highlight plays, but Vernon Wells does this as well. Now, we have to admit, that with Ichiro playing predominantly in right field, this adds to his luster, and we have no Jeter problem with his selection, we just would have gone a different way. And maybe in that selection, would have been wrong. There's no way we would suggest No Ichiro Again as the title. That's reserved for Mr. Yankee, ... again.

Bill Hall Free Agent Analysis

2010-11-08T10:12:00.000-05:00

Bill Hall 2010-11 Free Agents

Analysis

Okay, here's the consternation with Hall. Just what are you getting here? He's only 31 years old, so the wane really shouldn't have taken over his career, but it seems like it might have. At one time, back in the days of 2005 and 2006 in Milwaukee, Hall had plus starter written all over him, with years of 17 HR and 62 RBI followed by 35 HR and 85 RBI, with that last year added up to a very respectable PEVA rating of 11.905. Pretty good stuff at 27 years of age. But now it's four years later and what we're seeing is a platoon player, and one, we're not real sure whether a playoff contending team should want.

Whoa, there, ... maybe we're jumping to the wrong conclusion and are just plain wrong about that. Sure, Hall is a low batting average and low OBP guy at this point in his career and someone you're not looking at as an everyday starter, but he did hit 18 HR for Boston in 2010 and played every outfield and infield position except first base (and he can probably do that). Perhaps this is just the type of hitter/fielder a contending team needs, as long as the price is right.

But what about that price. And just what role would that contending team be talking about? Let's assume he's a platoon player again, one who will be getting 300 to 400 ABs.

PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY

Bill Hall	Year
4.538	2007
3.733	2008
2.459	2009
3.093	2010
3.031	RAVE

Last year, Hall was paid $8,525,000, but he's looking at a significant drop from that number in 2010. SPRO Salary Projections state that he's looking like a $3,000,000 player now, and that's only because there's still a bit of a look back five years quality and hope that he can repeat some of those headier days.

Personally, we're still a little conflicted on whether Hall's worth those numbers and might be more comfortable in the $2.5 million range. But SPRO is holding out hope. It will be interesting to see just what type of team, a playoff contender or just one looking for production from a cheaper alternative, will take that risk, and whether it will pay off.

SPRO PROJECTIONS - Bill Hall

2011 - $3,021,000
2012 - $3,127,000
Total Contract - 2 years @ 6,148,000

Jason Werth Free Agent Analysis

2010-11-05T13:49:00.001-04:00

Jayson Werth 2010-11 Free Agents

Analysis

There's a pretty good consensus around baseball circles that Jayson Werth will gain a pretty fine payday this offseason and the bellweathers for his services is likely to be a contract between that of Jayson Bay and Matt Holliday. And that's pretty good territory, but is it territory that a baseball general manager should play in, and which of those two players does Werth really compare better to.

Jayson Bay signed a four year $66 million contract ($16.5m per season) with the New York Mets in 2009 that included a fifth year option at $17 million in 2014. Bay had been pretty darn productive in the years prior to this season, but had a poor first season with the Mets mainly due to injury.

Matt Holliday signed a seven year $120 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009 that included an eighth year option at $17 million as well. Holliday was the preeiminent position player out there last year and this contract, at an annual rate of $17 million per season, reflected that.

With those two contracts, it seems as baseball was saying that these were two players with similar skills and value. Bay was 31 years old at the end of 2009; Holliday was 29 years old, two years younger. Werth will be 31 years old at the end of this year.

For the four years prior, Bay had accumulated 123 home runs and knocked in 413 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE of 17.062; Holliday had bashed 119 home runs, and knocked in 448 runs, all with a 3 Year RAVE at the end of 2009 of 19.057. (RAVE is a 3 year adjusted number taking the most recent year at 50%, 1 year back 30%, and 2 years back at 20%.)

PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY

Bay		Holliday		Werth
22.511	2006	18.861	2007	4.523
7.133	2007	25.713	2008	9.727
18.155	2008	15.333	2009	19.511
20.378	2009	18.627	2010	20.813
17.062	RAVE	19.056	RAVE	18.205

Now what about Jayson Werth. For the four years prior to this offseason, Werth had hit 95 home runs and knocked in 300 runs, and had a 3 year RAVE of 18.205. So yes, he does seem to have a value in between those two players. Now Werth had other abilities that some say will add to his value (i.e. defense, baserunning), and all those are true, but are held within the PEVA rating.

So Bay got $16.5m and Holliday $17m per year. That means Werth should be worth $16.75m, right? And what about those who are theorizing that he should be paid $18m to $20m per season.

SPRO projections show that Werth is very close to Jason Bay per contract value terms, and should be paid $95,399,000 for six years of service. Yes, that's a long contract, and it's value of $15,900.000 per year is lower than both.

Personally, we believe that Werth will be paid in the Bay to Holliday per year territory, and not be quite worth it.

SPRO PROJECTIONS - Jayson Werth

2011 - $14,564,000
2012 - $15,074,000
2013 - $15,602,000
Total Contract - 6 years @ 95,399,000

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The Felix vs. C.C. Debate

2010-10-04T12:58:00.002-04:00

Let's get into the Felix vs. C.C. debate, or Cy Young American, if you'd rather refer to it that way. First off, at first glance, and even after looking at the statistics, if I had an actual ballot, I'd have to vote for C.C. Sabathia for Cy Young. Hernandez has just too few wins for me to consider him when Sabathia and Price had at least 20. If Felix had won 16 or 17, that would be a different story. So right off the bat, I'll state that I'd vote for C.C. But I probably would be wrong.

The case for Felix is so strong on most other categories that the numbers guy in me sees a stronger case for him, even though my paper ballot says otherwise.

Complete Games - Felix 6, C.C. 2
Innings Pitched - Felix 249.7, C.C. 237.7
ERA - Felix 2.27, C.C. 3.18
Strikeouts - Felix 232, C.C. 197
SO to W Ratio - Felix 3.31, C.C. 2.66
WHIP9 - Felix 9.52, C.C. 10.72
HR/9 IP - Felix 0.61, C.C. 0.76

In every category listed, Hernandez is out in front. So I'd vote for C.C. if I had one, but probably be wrong. At least I wouldn't be wrong in the National League, as the consensus candidate, Roy Halladay, is both the pitcher I'd vote for and the one who has the best stats, and the one who should and will win.

Halladay had the best season of any pitcher in either league, totalling a PEVA of 43.916, good enough to be the 4th best season in Philadelphia Philly pitching history and rank in the Top 50 of All-Time. His closest competitor in the race, Adam Wainwright, had a phenomenal year, as well, the 2nd best season in 2010 according to his PEVA ranking. At 20-11 W-L, 2.42 ERA, I'd have chosen Wainwright ahead of both Felix and C.C. if he'd been an American League hurler. But he wasn't.

For a list of the Top 40 pitchers according the PEVA, Stat Geek Baseball comparative index of All-Time player rankings, go to the Top 40 Pitchers of 2010 page at baseballevaluation.com.

Gold Glove Prospects

2010-07-07T09:47:00.003-04:00

Okay, we're at the midpoint of the season and everybody is talking about who has made the All-Star team, or who was dissed, or who will be traded at the trading deadline. But we're going to talk about fielders. Yes, fielders! And even Prince Fielder, too. We're going to discuss who is fielding their position well at the half way point of the year and should be in the discussion for winning a Gold Glove (or Silver Mitt to us) if they continue their prowess til October.

We're using our Field Value rating system to do this and not discounting those who haven't played a ton of innings at their position, which we'd do if this was an end of the year yammer, but we're going to give some love to the under innings guys, too. Field Value takes into account a number of factors, and like much in the baseballevaluation universe compares those factors to the maximum value and the average value to determine where the player sits amongst his peers. There are different maximums, as far as Field Value goes, for each position. The categories include Innings Played, Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Catching Caught Stealing Percentage plus Assists per 9 Innings Played for Outfielders.

So, here goes!

There's a changing of the guard at some positions, most notably at shortstop due to the injury to Rollins in Philadelphia, but for the most part you'll recognize the names involved. So let's start out at catcher. Those Molina's do a great job, and at the midpoint of 2010, it is not Yadier who lands at the top of the list (he's #3), but Jose. No, Jose, has not played a ton, only 211.7 innings thus far, but his perfect fielding percentage plus 0.647 Caught stealing percentage is just fantastic! Now, if this were the end of the year, Yadier would have to take the cake (yes, he should be Gold Glove, just not the All-Star starter), but we're giving the nod right now to Jose.

There's nothing much to say about the position at first, but when you're talking about first sackers, not only at the plate, but in the field, the conversation really does start with Albert. He has range, 10.628 per 9 IP, picks it clean, an is durable. Notable right behind him is his counterpart in the American League, Justin Morneau. Kinda shocking to us, because we don't think of him in this fielding light, is #3. But Prince Fielder is having a good season in the fields of Milwaukee, picking it at a 0.999 clip, although his range does not measure up to the other two.

You could be looking at an MVP candidate and Gold Glove winner in Robinson Cano. Yes, he's really that good, although grand fielder Brandon Phillips will make the case for himself and steady Eddie, David Eckstein, does lack range, but gets the job done.

There are fielders at third base many think of as the head of the class. For the young, they think of David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Evan Longoria. For the veterans, it might be Scott Rolen. And all four are very good. However, this year, two unlikely fielders, relatively new to their position, are making claims for Gold. Jhonny Peralta is fielding at a 0.995 percentage and just below 3.000 Range Factor. (I know, that seems to small, but there are only 27 outs in a game and nine positions to claim those Assists, Putouts, and Errors). Placido Polanco, Gold Glove worthy at 2nd base for years, may not have the strongest arm of the bunch, but he gets to a lot of balls and handles them clean.

Troy Tulowitski has been one of the best fielders in the game since he came on the scene several years ago, but for some reason, is thought of as a good fielder, not great. We disagree. Perhaps it's his size, lack of spectacular quickness, or fielding humidor balls, but with a Range Factor of 5.420 and steady glove, he's Gold Glove worthy. This might be the year with Rollins on the Disabled List for part of it. And although many disagree, including players, about Rollin's range. We think it's okay; most think it's great. There's no denying that a Colorado masher might just gain a little bling sometime soon.

Outfielders who roam the tarmac of grass and win Gold Gloves usually do so from centerfield, and that's the case this year for the top three. Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Bourn, and Torii Hunter all posess the speed and glove to win Gold this year as Hunter has done for many in the past. We think Torii might even be doing this better than he has in the past. Bourn adds a solid arm dimension to the position. Gutierrez might just have the best range of the bunch.

So there you have it. One small discussion in July about Gold while others talk about Cliff Lee moving to New York.

Best Ever Batters by Teams, Week 9 Countdown

2010-06-30T13:28:00.001-04:00

The final week of the countdown starts with the St. Louis Cardinals and spans the back of the alphabet through the many incarnations of the Washington Nationals. It's been a good ride, and we hope you enjoyed the journey, plus bought a Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book or two. Thanks for joining in and following along, plus those sales. We'll end the Bonus Coverage with a look at five of the best players from the Washington Nationals of today, plus those old Montreal Expos. And we'll leave you with some final guesses to just who are in the top spots.

Part of the Top Twenty
8. Larry Walker. He played for the Montreal Expos when it was still cool to be one, ending his career there in 1994 before moving on, as almost all of them did, to other pastures, particularly one that now has a humidor. But over those six seasons north of the border, he would have 56.370 PEVA position player points while batting 0.281. That average would rise once he made it to Colorado, think 0.334 and the #2 spot on their list.

9. Larry Parrish. Back one more decade and you get the 56.177 PEVA career of Expo Parrish. Parrish played eight seasons there through 1981 and might just have played some of them in Jerry Park, we think without checking.

10. Warren Cromartie. One of the troika of great outfielders who came up in the Expo system at the same time, including new Hall of Fame electee Andre Dawson, Cromartie played nine seasons in Montreal and collected 1,063 hits for a PEVA total of 56.137. Anybody remember the name of the third guy?

11. Jose Vidro. At one time, Jose Vidro looked like a lock to be one of the best players to play for this franchise, well above the #11 spot, but things waned once he got to Washington. Still, with that 0.301 average and 55.678 PEVA, he became one of the few bridge players between the two cities, adding to the trivia that will mark the franchise going forward, in what looks to be better days.

12. Ryan Zimmerman. Now we've reached the best position player of the Washington Nationals era and before he end of his career, a potential #1 player on this list in years to come. Lots of time before that will happen, but with 55.064 PEVA through his first 5 years, and seemingly better seasons ahead, we surely wouldn't be surprised if Zimmerman ends up in the top three at least.

So what does that Top Seven look like. Try two Hall of Fame players in Andre Dawson and Gary Carter, add in some flavor with Rusty Staub and Vladimir Guerrero, and fill it out with Bob Bailey, Tim Raines, and Tim Wallach. Put them in order for some fun and check out the final rankings in Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book at Google Books or Amazon.com.

Best Players by Team (Cardinals, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals)
Week Nine Countdown Sample

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Week Eight Countdown

2010-06-28T13:10:00.000-04:00

Where does the best pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons sit on his historic team's list of best pitchers ever, even though he's barely started his career. That's just one of the questions answered in the Week 8 Countdown of the best pitchers in team history sample list. And yes, since we're talking about the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Seattle Mariners as the three current teams on this list, it's not too hard to figure out we're talking about Tim Lincecum. Just where does he sit? Sit back and check out the bonus coverage of the Giants, both New York and San Francisco versions.

In the Top Twenty
11. Mickey Welch. The year was 1892 and Victorian days were part of the present, not the quaint past for this New York Giants pitcher who would win 238 games in his Giants career, in only ten seasons, while losing only 146, all with an ERA of 2.69. And he wasn't thought of as the best of his time, when folks like Cy Young were pitching for other clubs. It still adds up to a great careers for the New York hurler with 89.061 PEVA points.

12. Jason Schmidt. We're only a couple years removed from the time when Jason Schmidt was one of the best pitchers in baseball, although I get the feeling we're already starting to forget it. Over six seasons in San Francisco, he won 78, lost only 36, and pitched to an ERA of 3.36, some of which was accomplished in the steroid era, although to be fair, with his teammates in SF and a big ballpark, he might have had some advantages, too. 86.771 PEVA.

13. Sal Maglie. 78.428 PEVA in seven seasons for the New York Giants brought them 95 wins and only 42 losses in a career that ended for the Giants in 1955.

14. Tim Lincecum. Small of frame, huge in arm, and already in the #14 position for a historic franchise even though it spans only three seasons. With 77.848 PEVA already counted and a per year figure of 25.949, how high can Tim go? Well, that per season average is already higher than Amos Rusie. So pretty high, we'd say. 40-17 career record and a 2.90 ERA tell a good part of the tale. It's more than possible he moves into the top ten after this season.

15. Mike McCormick. He pitched in the 1960s for the San Francisco version and accumulated 71.854, winning 104 games.

Some of the names that Lincecum is trying to catch ... Carl Hubbell, Tim Keefe, Juan Marichal, Christy Mathewson, Gaylord Perry. For the full top twenty in both pitching and hitting, check out Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book at Google Books or Amazon.com.

Best Players by Team (Padres, Giants, Mariners)
Week Eight Countdown Sample

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Week Seven Countdown

2010-06-21T12:00:00.000-04:00

Back to batters for teams who started out in Philadelphia and stayed, or started out in Philly and left. Yes, the A's, plus the Phils, and thrown in a Pirate. It's Pennsylvania connection week for those current squads, plus the old-timers in the bunch, think Philadelphia Keystones for one or Philadelphia Centennials for another. For the bonus coverage below, we're going to focus on the western part of the state, in Pittsburgh, starting out with the #4 man on the totem pole. One, two, and three shouldn't be too hard for you to figure out, but in what order? Yes, there's a Clemente, Stargell, and Wagner among them.

Some of the Top Ten
4. Paul Waner. Yes, that's Waner, not Wagner sitting at number four, and during this man's 14 year playing career in Pittsburgh that ended in 1940 he would accumulate 2,868 hits and a batting average of 0.340. Pretty heady stuff. Adds up to 228.401 PEVA Ratings Points.

5. Max Carey. We'll go back two decades earlier to capture the career of the number five player in Pittsburgh position player history. With 2,417 hits and 183.198 PEVA, the 17 year career of Carey didn't produce alot of power, only 67 Home Runs, but it did produce a good amont of valuable years.

6. Ralph Kiner. Only eight years for the Pirates, but what a great eight years. His 21.955 average PEVA points is the 2nd highest in club history, behind only the overall number one, and those 301 HR and 801 RBI added up to 175.644 PEVA total points despite the short tenure.

7. Arky Vaughn. He'd bat 0.324 over ten season in bucco gear, adding up to 162.788 PEVA rating points and the #7 spot on the Pirate list.

7. Fred Clarke. Final season 1915, this dead ball era player had 1,638 hits for the Pirates over his 15 seasons in town and 159.569 PEVA points.

Some key names also in the Top Twenty include Barry Bonds, Jason Kendall, Dave Parker, Bill Mazeroski, and Pie Traynor. For more on the batters and pitchers on the Pirate list, check out Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book at Google Books or Amazon.com.

Best Players by Team (A's, Phillies, Pirates)
Week Seven Countdown Sample

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The Week 6 Baseball's Best Countdown

2010-06-14T11:38:00.001-04:00

It's starting to get hot out and the days of summer are beginning in earnest. Just the right time to break out another best pitcher in franchise history sample list, and this time include the most storied franchise of them all. No, I'm not talking about the New Haven Elm Citys, although they are included, I'm talking about Bronx Bombers, those New York Yankees, as well as the Minnesota Twins, those Mets across town, and the Milwaukee Brewers. But for one team in bonus coverage, the Minnesota Twins, aka the Washington Senators in past years, we're going to start with with the list at #3, the man most discussed during Hall of Fame balloting right now and whether he has the merits to make it (better hurry, not many writer's ballot years left) and count down five from there, then you can try and fill in the blanks about who sits at the top.

Some of the Top Twenty
3. Bert Blylevin. Let's stop with the bickering and put Bert in the Hall already. Yes, we know that win loss percentage is lower than we'd like, but hey, he wasn't playing for the Yankees, or even the current Twins. Over his Twin career, Bert won 149 games, about half his career total, and accumulated 144.556 PEVA Rating Points. Only two pitchers in Minnesota, and Washington Senator, history did better than that.

4. Brad Radke. Radke spent twelve seasons pitching for the Twins with a baggy behind him. Much like Blylevin, he didn't have a great won loss percentage at 148-139 and an ERA over 4.00, but his 130.309 PEVA Rating Points lands him at the #4 spot in Twin/Senator history from the pitching side of the equation.

5. Jim Kaat. The big, quick pitch, lefty won 190 in Minnesota, with an ERA of 3.34, all totaling up to 128.252 PEVA.

6. Frank Viola. Another lefty in the eightees won 112 games for the Twins and lands at the #6 spot in the countdown. 115.982 PEVA pitching.

7. Camilo Pascual. His last year in Minnesota came in 1966 and the 110.796 PEVA points were part of a career there, and in Washington, that saw 145 wins, 141 losses, and 10 saves over 2,465 innings.

Okay, now for the Top Two, and the rest of the Top Twenty. It's pretty easy to guess who's number one, but just where did some other Twin favorites end up? Match the pitcher with his rank ... Rick Aguilera, Firpo Marberry, Joe Nathan, Jim Perry, Johan Santana, and Walter Johnson. Check out Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book at Google Books or Amazon.com.

Best Players by Team (Royals, Dodgers)
Week Six Countdown Sample

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Week Five Countdown - Best Batters

2010-06-07T10:36:00.000-04:00

They broke the hearts of their fans in Brooklyn when they trotted west in the late 1950's and made Chavez Ravine home and they are more known for the best pitchers than best batters, but the Los Angeles Dodgers and Kansas City Royals are the two current franchises listed in the sample countdown of best batters for their teams ever, along with ten other teams that have gone into the anals of baseball history. We'll list the top five for the Dodgers, and yes, we were surprised Jackie wasn't in the Top Five, although he only played ten seasons, which explains more than a bit.

The Top Five
1. Duke Snider. It's hard to imagine how he could have been the third best outfielder in the city where he played most of his career, but during the Brooklyn Dodger days, he was third behind Mantle and Mays in New York. But that's a great third, now isn't it! Snider comes out on top as the best Dodger player ever, accumulating 246.786 PEVA points while hitting 386 HR, knocking in 1271, and getting 1995 hits. And there are only two Dodger players whose per year PEVA average are better over shorter careers, the man at #5 in Roy Campanella, and the catcher of recent vintage, Mike Piazza.

2. Zach Wheat. Talk about a player with a name just made for a cereal box, Wheat played 18 years for Brooklyn through 1926, batting 0.317 and garnering 2804 hits. At 211.353 PEVA rating points, that comes in just behind Snider as the second best player in Dodger history. Now back to the endorsements.

3. Gil Hodges. There's always a campaign to get Hodges into the Hall of Fame, but those measures come up just short despite a grand career. He hit 361 HR, 1254 RBI, 1884 base hits over 16 seasons for Brooklyn and LA. Pretty darn good, even if just shy of some Hall of Fame standards. All toll 168.075 PEVA.

4. Pee Wee Reese. The slick fielding shortstop from the Dodgers is in the Hall, and over sixteen years plied his trade for the Dodgers. And although his prowess at the plate was less stellar than his time in the field helping those Dodger teams of the 1950s win a whole lot of games, it all adds up to the #4 spot in Dodger batter history and 166.690 PEVA rating points. Yes, fielding does count.

5. Roy Campanella. In a short career, Campanella caught and hit his way to the #5 position in Dodger history. His per year PEVA average of 16.266 in 2nd best, behind only Mike Piazza, and totals 162.658 for the ten seasons in Dodger blue.

For some, the more interesting list of Dodger greats sits on the mound side. For were greats like Koufax, Drysdale, and Newcombe sit, plus Valenzuela and Hershiser, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book.

Best Players by Team (Royals, Dodgers)
Week Five Countdown Sample

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Organizational Depth

2010-06-02T13:18:00.003-04:00

Just wanted to step away from the best player countdown for a moment and discuss something most baseball fans, and I'm guessing more than a few execs, seem to discount. Organizational depth. Now I'm not talking about pure "next superstar" type players, but I am talking about a player who can come up when injuries happen, a young player with the potential to become everyday players in the future.

And why am I bringing this up now? Well, as a Phillies fans, we're starting to see the downside of trading that organizational depth at the upper minor league levels for a pure stud, Hall of Fame, caliber player.

There have been three eras of Phillies baseball just within the time, last ten years, when they began to compete for division titles. Let's call them Ed Wade, Pat Gillick, and Ruben Amaro. Now all three men have to be given some credit for the three division titles, two World Series appearances, and one World Series title. It was under Ed Wade that most of the home grown talent were drafted and nurtured through the minor leagues. It was under Pat Gillick that his stand pat attitude, for the most part, put together the additional pieces in predominantly minor moves (I'm thinking moves like Matt Stairs, Jason Werth, J.C. Romero, and Jamie Moyer), just to name a few. Now we've moved forward into Amaro time. And that's the time I'm speaking of.

Amaro seems to favor the "striking while the fire is hot" scenario. He likes the bold move, the stud player, and even the older player to fill out a roster. And that's the gamble now playing out. There is a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher in Roy Halladay who is capable of pitching a perfect game. There was an All-Star level pitcher in Cliff Lee traded for last year that pitched so well through the remainder of the season and postseason that they had a chance to win title number two in a row. There was the older outfielder, Raul Ibanez, who was given a large paycheck to form a formidable lineup meant to win now. There were the Ramon Castros of the world to fill in the blanks and the roster in place of the organizational depth that had to be traded to gain some of the former three.

And we have seen the positives and negatives play out in just the first two months of the 2010 season. Month one, most players healthy, with notable exceptions in Lidge and Rollins, and the lineup that pounds the ball to the tune of 5.5 runs per game. Month two, more players get hurt and you're left with playing Ramon Castro and Wilson Valdez for more than a day or two, and your lineups starts to sputter, and the wins slow to a drought induced trickle.

But now, why is organizational depth important in this scenario? Because there's no way a team as good as the Phillies should be relying on never beens to be more than the last player on the bench. The two trades made to acquire the top level pitchers over the last two years raided the upper minor leagues of the backup catcher, backup infielder, backup outfielder, and backup starting pitchers who would have come to the potential rescue. Yes, we're talking Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek.

Now both Marson and Donald are starting in Cleveland with middling results, but they have potential. You really can't say the same about Castro or Valdez or even Brian Schneider, who we think was a good sign, but still past his prime.

Now we believe players will get healthy and the Phils will rebound, hopefully to the World Series again. But if they don't, and the struggles continue, without a plus minor league player (beyond Domonic Brown) to fill in the gap. You're going to find a lot of managers of other teams who were really glad they had to pitch to Castro, Valdez, Gload, or Schneider, during the injuries, and not take the chance that the organizational depth might have provided a spark of potential to get you through bad times. Of course, to be fair, they weren't going to pitch a perfect game either.

Week Four Countdown

2010-05-31T10:12:00.000-04:00

We're back to pitchers now in franchises from one old franchise, the Detroit Tigers, two recent expansion teams, the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins, one team that's been around forty years or so in the Houston Astros, plus eight teams that no longer play major league baseball, but used to. And it's only fitting that we give a taste of the Houston squad and some of their best pitchers in history, because, of course, it include the no hit wonder, Nolan Ryan, although he's not at the top of the list, actually #4, which has more to do with his relatively short stay there and stints in New York, Anaheim, and Dallas.

The Top Five
1. Roy Oswalt. He may be mad about players who cheat him and explore the PED usage to gain an advantage, but through the first nine seasons of his career, it does not seem to have affect his prowess. Currently averaging 18.440 PEVA points per season, with a total of 165.964, and with some talk that this could be his last year in an Astro uniform, Oswalt ranks as the top pitcher in franchise history. 137-70 wins to losses and a 3.23 ERA pitching a large amount of time in a park where a train can be hit by a batter, and there's a short porch in left. Maybe they should keep him.

2. Mike Scott. Another one of those pitchers that baseball fans seem to shortchange, he won 110 games for Houston, a Cy Young, and did so to the tune of a 3.30 ERA and 131.199 PEVA Rating Points. Yes, many of those came in a short time span, but, oh, when he was good, he was certainly good.

3. Joe Niekro. Joe, the other brother, lands here at #3 due to 11 seasons, 144 wins, and 122.547 PEVA points while pitching in the Astrodome for 2,270 innings and a 3.22 ERA until his last season in Houston in 1985.

4. Nolan Ryan. Ryan spent his career in New York, Houston, Anaheim, and Texas and did not land at the top for any team, although in the minds of many, he was the best pitcher Houston, Anaheim, and Texas ever had. Ranks #6 in Houston, #2 for the Angels. For his Astro career, he won 106 games and 110.250 PEVA.

5. J.R. Richard. At his best, he was stellar, and dominating. For the ten seasons he played in Houston, there were 107 wins and a PEVA rating of 99.479.

Fill in the blanks of the Top Twenty in Houston Colt 45s and Astro history. Where do they rank in the list? ... Roger Clemens, Jim Deshaies, Larry Dierker, Ken Forsch, Mike Hampton, Pete Harnisch, Darryl Kile, Bob Knepper, Jose Lima, Andy Pettite, Shane Reynolds, Joe Sambito, Dave Smith, Billy Wagner, Don Wilson.

For the full list, plus the Top Twenty batters, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Check sample pages at Google Books.

Best Players by Team (Cubs, Reds, Indians)
Week Four Countdown Sample

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Week Three Countdown

2010-05-24T09:42:00.001-04:00

Week three and we're back to batters, including those from some long suffering franchises, i.e. the Chicago Cubs, and current teams in down years like the Reds and Indians, but who've won their share of titles in the past. Who can forget those Big Red Machines. And as the summer starts to heat up in earnest soon, let's count down five of the mid-level exceptions (oh, no, a basketball reference) in the Top Twenty of the best historical Big Red batters, and yes, there are two Big Red Machine player among them, and four more above them, too.

Five of the Best
8. Vada Pinson. There's more than a few old-timers who consider Pinson Hall of Fame worthy and one of the most exciting players of his era. For the eleven seasons he ran the outfield and bases for the Reds, he garnered 159.183 PEVA Career Points, 186 HR, 814 RBI, 1881 Hits, while batting 0.297. Not too shabby for the #8 player in franchise history.

9. Charley Jones. You have to reach back to the pre-1900 baseball era to get the #9 player in Reds history, with the last of his nine seasons coming in 1887. This was a time of short seasons, many years about half of the current 162 game schedule, but even with this limitation, Jones held his own with career stats of 839 hits and a 0.301 batting average. When compared to his peers, this added up to a PEVA Career in a Reds uniform of 152.276 and an average season of 16.970 PEVA.

10. George Foster. Here comes one of the Red Machine, who shook the stadium with a lean frame and thunder bat. Always thought it was amazing he could hit the ball that far; it was like steel was in his arms. And his 1977 season, the 4th best year in Reds history, was a year of pure amazement; 52 HR and 149 RBI in a pre-steroid year. Foster didn't have as many of those years as others, so he's ranked down at #10, but it still added up to a PEVA Reds Career of 151.263.

11. Edd Roush. This Reds player from the Babe Ruth era was a hits machine with 1784 of them and a 0.331 career average with the Reds. All totaled to 139.644 PEVA in a Cincinnati uniform.

12. Dave Concepcion. There's always an argument among baseball fans, and particularly Reds fans, on whether a player like Dave Concepcion, or perhaps the more recent a better version of him in Barry Larkin, deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. We don't think so, but that shouldn't diminish the fact that Concepcion was an integral part of a great era in Reds history. He played a ton of seasons there, 19, and collected a lot of hits, 2626. Career PEVA with Cincy of 130.003.

Okay, we won't let you guess who was in the top seven, but we will let you ponder what position they are in; Top Seven Batters in Reds history are ... Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Bid McPhee, Joe Morgan, Frank Robinson, Pete Rose, and Tony Perez.

For the full list, plus the Top Twenty batters, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Check sample pages at Google Books.

Best Players by Team (Cubs, Reds, Indians)
Week Two Countdown Sample

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Week Two Countdown

2010-05-17T08:59:00.000-04:00

The countdown clock continues with a focus on pitchers in the second week for the franchises from Red Sox nation to White Sox lore, plus a bunch of teams in between. And what you begin to see when you start comparing the best better and best pitchers in the PEVA career totals is, ... geez, some teams were much better at hitting than pitching over their history, and for some, it's almost glaring. We're getting ahead of ourselves here, but the Philadelphia Phillies were so bad at pitching over their history that current players with limited years and accomplishments are already in the top ten, i.e. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. And that's kinda true, in many ways, for those from Red Sox nation and explains why it took so long to get those championship seasons going again. In Red Sox history, only four pitchers have reached the 100 Career PEVA mark, while 19 hitters have done the same. But we're not focusing on that franchise today and those four pitchers mentioned, we're going to look at the second franchise in many Chicago hearts, the Chicago White Sox, where it's a bit more even with 11 batters and 7 pitchers reaching that rarified territory. And we're going to keep the suspense going a bit at the top and let you guess later who might top the pinnacle.

#3 - Red Faber	1933	177.153	20	8.858	254	213	28	4086.3	3.15
#4 - Billy Pierce	1961	163.992	13	12.615	186	152	19	2931.0	3.19
#5 - Wilber Wood	1978	140.663	12	11.722	163	148	57	2524.3	3.18
#6 - Mark Buehrle	2009	139.037	10	13.904	135	97	0	2061.0	3.80
#7 - Eddie Cicotte	1920	122.749	9	13.639	156	102	21	2322.3	2.25

Five of the Top Ten
3. Red Faber. He last pitched in a White Sox uniform in 1933 and he had been pitching there for awhile, twenty seasons in fact. And during those twenty seasons, he would win 254 Games, pitch over 4,000 innings, and all to the ERA tune of 3.15. There were two pitchers in White Sox history who were better, but not much, as the 177.153 PEVA Career Points are only 36 points behind number one. Can you guess who that is yet?

4. Billy Pierce. His career was shorter in Chicago than Faber, but more recent, ending in 1961. For thirteen seasons, he would toil on the mound at Comiskey Park and tally 186 wins, a 3.19 ERA, and 163.992 PEVA ratings points. The top two pitchers in franchise history would win more games, although the man in the number one spot only nine more.

5. Wilbur Wood. He won games, he saved games, he pitched alot a knuckle balls. And all that added up to the #5 spot in the career pitching list for the Chicago White Sox in a career that lasted twelve seasons, ending in 1978. Wood's a pitcher people remember. He was interesting to watch. And with those 163 victories and 57 saves, it added up to 140.663 PEVA for his White Sox playing days.

6. Mark Buehrle. Let's get current! Let's get loud! Let's trumpet the man who can pitch a no hitter and give the current White Sox team a chance to win almost every game he pitches. There are some in baseball today who dismiss Buehrle as one of the game's best, because not every game does he dominate. But he pitches innings and wins, pretty darn important stuff. In only 10 seasons, he has 135 wins and 139.037 PEVA. In an era of relief pitchers, that's pretty heady stuff, and if his career on Chicago's White Sox side last another five years or more, you could be looking at the #1 or #2 pitcher in their history. Okay, the ERA's a bit high, but that's a function of the DH and today for a large part, isn't it?

7. Eddie Cicotte. A bit of the antithesis to Buerhle in the fact that his career in White Sox land was short, under ten years, but his record great. He won 156 games and lost only 102. And his ERA can not be questioned at 2.25, although it certainly was affected by the dead ball era he played in for a good portion of his career. In the end, Eddie accumulated 122.749 PEVA Career points in a White Sox uniform, coming in at #7 in the countdown list.

Now, have you guessed who the Top Two are or their mates in the Top Twenty below those listed. Here's the remaining list of Top Two and Twenty players. Listed alphabetically, they are ... Dick Donovan, Richard Dotson, Alex Fernandez, Jon Garland, Joe Horlen, Ted Lyons, Jack McDowell, Gary Peters, Jim Scott, Frank Smith, Tommy Thomas, Ed Walsh, Doc White, Hoyt Wilhelm. For the full list, plus the Top Twenty batters, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Check sample pages at Google Books.

Best Players by Team (Red Sox, White Sox)
Week Two Countdown Sample

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Countdown to the Best Players by Team

2010-05-14T08:18:00.008-04:00

We're going to start the clock. Over the next nine weeks, covering twelve franchises per week, we'll give you a taste of the best career players and best pitchers by all teams in history, highlighting one of the top twenty for each. Yes, this is only a taste. All teams have their top twenty or so listed in the Stat Geek Baseball, Best Ever Book, now on sale in ebook or at your favorite online store. We're trying to promote what the reviewers are saying is a great read, but, hey, we're new at this, and need you to see what we're talking about. Then if you like it, please check out the book. It will make a great Father's Day gift for a baseball dad, or a great summer read for the baseball fanatic of any age.

But let's get on with the countdown. Each week we'll focus on either batters or pitchers. In week one, today, it will start out with the batters of the top of the alphabet teams, including the long gone franchises like the Altoona Mountain City, plus today's Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, and Baltimore Orioles. So there's something there for the deep baseball historian and the historian of today as well. You can read the webpage of the sample for the first twelve teams at the page listed below, but right now we're going to focus on the bonus coverage of one team among that twelve, the Baltimore Orioles and their best batters in the long history of that franchise.

The Top Five
1. Cal Ripken. It will come as no surprise to most that the best player in franchise history played not long ago, and captured the city's hearts, and still does, like no other player in their history. Yes, Cal Ripken plied his craft on the left side of the infield for that longest consecutive games streak and put up numbers and class that has not been outclassed by any other batter, or pitcher for that matter, on the club. He would accumulate 320.188 PEVA Career Rating Points, make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and run the gauntlet of all the many qualities of what a baseball hero should be. He hit 431 Home Runs, knocked in 1695 RBIs, and collected 3,184 hits.

2. Eddie Murray. For thirteen seasons in Baltimore, Eddie came to the park and plate with remarkable consistency and a dogged determination to create runs. No, he didn't do it with the style and panache of Ripken, although the similarities in day to day production are really a lot closer in quality than one would think. And while his Oriole career was shorter than Ripken's 21 seasons, his per year production was not. He would average 18.435 PEVA rating points and total 239.660 PEVA for his Oriole playing days. All in all this added up to Cooperstown, 343 HR, 1224 RBI, and 2,080 hits through his final Baltimore year of 1996.

3. Brooks Robinson. Prior to that Ripken fellow coming along, you'd have to say that Brooks held the favor of Oriole fans as their best player ever. Much of that came from the spectacular plays Robinson made in the field; his hitting always took second fiddle to the backhand stab behind the bag and seed to first for that out highlights. But while his hitting played that second string, it still accumulated to some great stats; 268 HR, 1357 RBI, and 2,848 hits. Gold Gloves, Cooperstown induction, and 239.660 PEVA Career Ratings points for Baltimore to boot.

4. George Sisler. It's always hard to reach back to a career that ended in 1927 and compare them to more current compatriots. But it's really not that difficult to see why George Sisler rises to the rank of the 4th best position player in Baltimore Oriole franchise history. He batted 0.344 for his Oriole career, which spanned 12 seasons. And while the home runs hit were low by comparison, with 93, to the three listed above, those 2,295 hits were not. This added up to 175.399 PEVA Rating Points for his Maryland career.

5. Ken Singleton. He didn't play that long ago, but for many, becomes the forgotten man in the Oriole current legend. And that's not fair. Because for the ten years he played with a bird on his shoulder, he collected 159.850 PEVA Rating Points, while knocking out 182 HR, 766 RBI, and 1455 hits. Yes, he was a better Oriole than Boog Powell, at least by the numbers, and ranks as the 5th best batter in their history.

Go to the Week One countdown to see the rest of the Top Ten, and the Best Ever Book for the Top Twenty batters and pitchers in Baltimore Orioles (AL) history. And before you get there, see if you can rank the remainder of the Top Twenty in order. Listed alphabetically, they are ...
Brady Anderson, Paul Blair, Al Bumbry, Harland Clift, Baby Doll Jacobsen, Melvin Mora, Rafael Palmeiro, Boog Powell, Frank Robinson, Burt Shotton, Vern Stephens, George Stone, Jack Tobin, Bobby Wallace, and Ken Williams. Good luck!

Best Players by Team (Angels, Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles)
Week One Countdown Sample

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or Ebook @ Baseballevaluation.com

Ryan Howard: Was He Worth It?

2010-05-04T16:04:00.004-04:00

Yes and No. Boy, now there's taking a stand for ya. But it really is a yes and no question. The contract Ryan Howard just signed for the 2012 to 2016 seasons, with a more than reasonable chance of having his option year picked up (it will only cost the Phillies $13 million more for one extra year), is where the market seems to be for MVP caliber talent. Just see the Joe Mauer deal, which was 8 years and $184 million dollars, or $23 million dollars per year. The Howard contract is essentially the same, including the option year, which makes it 6 years and $138 million, or $23 million dollars per year. We won't start discussing Albert Pujols here; he is in another class as a top of the Hall of Fame level player.

So how does Howard fare against the SPRO numbers? Where does the baseballevaluation.com Salary Projection system place him?

Actually, pretty darn close. While we have some issue with the length of contract (essentially one year shorter) and do think that the arbitrator got it wrong and pushed Howard's arbitration year numbers too high, we're still only slightly on the low end of this salary scale. We think Howard deserves a 5 year contract, starting in the 2012 season, at $103.398 million, or an average of $20.7 million per year.

So now we get into the no territory.

We have no problem with his age or the fact that in the last years, the value of his performance may not keep pace with the contract dollars. That's the way of the MLB contract wars. We do, however, think, that the scale of dollars, which for Howard escalates from $20 million in 2012 and 2013 to $25 million in each of the last three years with a guaranteed buyout for $10 million if his 2017 option is not picked up, starts a bit too high. But perhaps we should be rethinking that as well. It is what it is, as they say.

But it does beg the question about why a stellar MVP level performer is worth $6.5 million more than a player, say a Jason Bay, who got 4 years and $66 million, with an option year for $17 million (average of $16.5 million guaranteed). It begs the question whether someone with a slightly lower pedigree, if he had played with perennial All-Star level talent above him in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, would get if circumstances were different. BTW, the SPRO numbers for Bay were for 6 years and $99 million (average $16.5 million).

But I guess we'll never know, although Bay is doing pretty well in his current circumstance now with pretty good players above him and did the same last year in Boston.

So the answer is still yes and no. Yes, Ryan Howard was paid an appropriate level considering the salary scale in Major League Baseball today, although we think it should have been a little lower. But all in all, as Phillies fans, we're really glad the Phillies took the new bull by the horns and paid him. Now I wonder if we have any money left over for Jason Werth. Oh, well, that's a discussion for another day.

Note: The length of Howard's SPRO contract is inclusive of his two remaining contract years, i.e. would have been 7 years in length.

The Mauer Mandate

2010-03-30T15:32:00.002-04:00

It's almost as if he were channeling the President when the spectacular catcher of the Minnesota Twins, with one year to go before free agency, hit the motherlode of catcher contracts with a $184 million 8 year extension beginning in 2011. Add that to the $12.5 million he is due this year, that makes $196.5 million over 9 years for an average salary of $21.83 million. And if anyone is worth it, outside the Alex Rodriguez arena, Mauer might just be that man. A catcher with emerging power and a high average bat, the 2009 MVP was only 26 years old when 2010 began, and should provide a stable Hall of Fame level bat for the Twins for the next decade.

But just why did Minnesota break the bank for Mauer at the level they did? And is there no prohibition of salaries in the entertainment business (not only sports but music and tv/movie as well) in an era when many Minnesotans are losing their jobs or homes?

Mauer is a special case for the Twins, the hometown hero chosen as the first pick in the draft over other higher profile players, who turned around and made that pick look like gold. His contract was running out at a time when the Twins are ready to contend for years, and this is the year they are moving into newly minted Target Field with higher dollars to spend because of the new park. So suddenly, they were thinking in Yankee dollars? Well, it seems that might be the case.

Outside of the contract given in the last decade to Alex Rodriguez and Roger Clemens, most contracts for high caliber players begin in the range of $18 million per year, however, there seems to be the special case of two each year that pushes that number to start around $22 million. Think Santana, Sabathia, Teixiera, and now Mauer. Now Rodriguez and Clemens were above those numbers, actually above $25 million per year for both, so are we actually seeing a retrenching of that figure back a couple million dollars or an extension of the $18 million per year player forward. Both Rodriguez and Clemens had accomplished more in their career than that foursome. They were either Hall of Fame or nearly Hall of Fame worthy at the time of their contracts, especially in Clemens' case. That's not where Santana, Sabathia, Teixeira, or Mauer are today. They will need the years within the large contract to be Hall of Fame worthy to make it to Cooperstown down the line.

We have the tendency to question whether players at this level are worth an almost doubling of the slightly lesser player who might make it to the All-Star game level. Is Mauer worth 50% more than Chase Utley? Is he 50% better as a player or helpful to his team winning? We have our doubts. But it's not like we think, or the PEVA or SPRO projection system denotes, a salary that is not expensive. For us, Mauer is worth $140 million over the next 7 years, including 2010, only slightly lower on average than the $21.83 million of his current contract and the extension. So it's really just a quibble on the reasons of why and whether it makes sense from an overall payroll sense. For a team like the Yankees, it really doesn't matter. They can afford the next $15 million player just as well as that last $22 million one. But for a team like the Twins, even in the rarified air of a Target Field, that won't necessarily be the case. Or maybe the landscape is changing so much, that Minnesota is the new Bronx. Doubtful, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The Best Ever Book

2010-03-15T10:28:00.001-04:00

Yeh, we know, it's the cause of a lot of debate around water coolers, or wine coolers, maybe even a water bottle or two, and especially around a ballpark. Who was the best player of all-time? What pitcher had the best season in franchise history? Can a reliever actually be considered better for their career than the best starting pitcher for your favorite squad? What about the postseason and the bests there? Well, worry no more. Get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, the first publication printed in both paperback and ebook from us here at baseballevaluation.com.

It's 271 pages of best ever lists, over 100 of them, plus explanations and a whole lot more. You can buy it an amazon.com, plus see a bit of the book with their Inside the Book feature. You can get it at your local bookstore, or buy the ebook from us through our link on the Best Ever Book page.

Check us out. Buy the book. There are career best lists for every franchise in history, even the long gone ones.

Makes a great gift for that baseball fan in your life or yourself.

The Anatomy of a Pre Free Agent Contract

2010-03-10T10:36:00.001-05:00

We get so carried away during the offseason Hot Stove talk about where the free agents of the year are going to land and how much money they will get, that sometimes we forget about those deals made by clubs to their players, locking them up long-term before they reach that status. And many times those deals are misunderstood. Misunderstood because many in the public try to compare them to the deals made when a player reaches free agency, the time when maximum dollars have to be paid, because the leverage in the situation has now tipped over to the player's side. But that's not the case with a contract prior to free agency, and especially prior to being arbitration eligible. That's not the case at all.

Free agency starts when a player reaches 6 years of Major League Service Time. Major League Service time is calculated as the number of days in a season when the player is considered on the major league roster, including time spent on the disabled list. If a player has 172 days of service time in a year, it is considered a full year. The arbitration clock begins for all players when they reach 3 years of Major League Service Time, plus the top 1/6 of players, with the most MLST, who have reached 2 years of Major League Service Time. But enough for definitions (there are caveats in the Super Two category, also, but we won't get into that).

Let's take one example of a pre-free agency contract. Let's look at the recent six year deal given to Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Justin Upton is a 2.060 MLST player, therefore in the last year of his pre-arbitration time. Next season, 2011, he would be arbitration eligible. So when Arizona recently signed him to a 6 year contract for $51.5 million, they were buying out one year of pre-arbitration, three years of arbitration eligible service, and two years of free agency.

How did that break down?
2010 - $1.25 million signing bonus; $500,000 salary.
2011 - $4.25 million.
2012 - $6.75 million.
2013 - $9.75 million.
2014 - $14.25 million.
2015 - $14.50 million.

Now, what Arizona is really doing, is taking a large gamble. Upton has a lot of ability, but has yet to max that ability out. His 2009 season was great, and at only 22 years of age, batting 0.300 with 26 HR and 86 RBI. However, it was his first very good season. There are a ton of baseball players in the history of the game who've had one very good season, but never continued to progress in the way this contract suggests.

But did Arizona overpay? Should they have waited another year or two to extend him that far out?

The answer is yes.

Justin Upton deserved a multi-year deal, in our opinion, using the baseballevaluation decision model SPRO salary projection, but only one that bought out a couple years of arbitration, not extending into the free agency period yet.

SPRO
2010 - $459,000
2011 - $2.096 million
2012 - $2.892 million

But aren't the SPRO numbers too low?

Perhaps. We are not projecting his stats forward, but going on what he has already done. With a 2009 PEVA of slightly over 9 at 9.035, Upton has not yet broken into the top echelon of players. Yes, he has that potential. And 2010 might be the year that potential is realized. Just hasn't been yet. And we hope it does, not only for the sake of those fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but for the pocketbook of those who extended him that far in the future. Remember, for Upton to warrant the free agent numbers they extended him to, he has to become not only a perennial All-Star, but a veritable superstar in the game. That might happen, but we still think, from a contract standpoint, that it was pushed too far and too soon. Only time will tell how it all works out.

Worst Idea in the World

2010-01-08T09:42:00.002-05:00

Just when you thought Bud Selig couldn't come up with a worst idea than having a tie in the All-Star game or allowing steroids to take over his sport for more than a decade, he's willing to reduce the best baseball league on the planet to just another league compared to Japanese baseball? Com'n now, Bud. Buy a clue. Get a vowel. In case you haven't heard, Bud Selig is in negotiations, or discussions, to have the Major League Baseball World Series champion play the champion of Japan Baseball in the real Global World Series, and he's planning to do it soon.

I don't know, but when I saw the blurb skitter across the wire, I had to gasp. I mean, geez, it's bad enough he's trotting out the oblivious World Baseball Classic, perhaps an okay, but inconsequential idea held when most of our players are just rounding into baseball shape prior to, or during, spring training. I know, I know, other countries really love this. Who gives a darn about them? We, the baseball playing United States of America has the two leagues people around the world are hankering to play for. You don't see the Daisuke's of the USA running off to Japan to get the ultimate baseball experience. That's what we send a 0.216 hitter like Edgar Gonzalez to do so he can find a job.

Stop the madness! Kibash this notion before it gets any footing. I don't care about Japan baseball. I do care about reducing our World Series, the championship of the American vs. National League to just another round in an unending series of playoff baseball. Stop the madness before it's too late.

Hall of Fame Candidates 2010

2009-12-22T15:12:00.003-05:00

Hard to believe that time of year is coming soon when we discuss and rate our favorites to end up in Cooperstown, but it's coming very soon. In fact, by the end of the first week in January, we'll all know whether holdovers Dawson and Blylevin made the grade and whether first-timers McGriff and Larkin will make a dent in the voting.

For all those that like to look at numbers, check out of Rating the Hall of Fame Candidates 2010 page. There's a whole lot there to shake through, including PEVA Career Totals for the Regular Season, Postseason, PEVA-EQ stats, and where they'd stand among Hall of Famers already in if they make it, too.

But for now, we'll just ramble on and on about how we think about such things, and elaborate a bit as well.

First off, we're very stingy about who we think should make the Hall of Fame. It's a special place where only the best of the best should reside. Now, there are many already there who you could argue against inclusion, so it's probably not quite as exclusive a club as we'd like, but ... as they say, it is what it is. And it's great!

For Stat Geek Baseball and the baseballevaluation PEVA system, it's pretty apparent who should definitely get in. All players who have garnered 275.000 PEVA Ratings Points (PEVA-B or PEVA-T) or 285.000 including the postseason during their career, and eligible for the Hall, are in. So if any players on the current ballot has reached that Total, it's a no brainer. But nobody has. Now it gets tricky. When you get to a 200 PEVA level, about 75% get in, but you better be above 210 to have the best shot. There are 124 in that category (on the All Inclusive List) and 75 are in, and 16 not yet eligible.

But what about those 25% who are on the outside looking in, why are some included and some not. Well, for starters, many who are on the outside have lower PEVA per EQ year averages. This is the average PEVA value for a full season per the player's career. But there are some who have similar values and have not made it, while others have.

That's just the way the game is played. But for us this year, it comes down to the case of "are any of the players deserving" and "how many of the marginal to good candidates" should make it. We're of the opinion that every year should have at least one HOF inductee, with the perfect year 2, and the maximum three. For us, this is one year when we'd only choose 1.

Bert Blylevin has been toiling in this HOF voting for 14 years, and if he doesn't make it in 2010, he has only one more year on the writer's ballot to make it. He's getting punished for playing on bad teams that lost games, even though he did his darndest to prevent it. Bert won 287 games in his career with a 3.31 ERA. His Total PEVA score of 274.610 ranks #69 All-Time among all players and pitchers. Yes, his PEVA Per EQ average year is lower than we'd like at 13.075 when he should be around 15.000 and if there were other better options, we'd choose them. But this year, there just aren't, and it's time to elect Bert to the Hall of Fame.

For us, not too many others even deserve a mention. We'll get one out of the way before going any further. If Mark McGwire had not used or been involved in the PED allegation scandal, he'd be a lock to be in the Hall. But for us, we think his use added enough to his stats that without them, he'd be below the threshold for election. We're not saying that we'd never vote for anybody involved in this scandal; we're using the "if they hadn't used PEDs, would they still have made it" logic. We don't think Mark would have; Sammy and Rafael, too when they're on the ballot in the future.

Okay, so who are the other possible players we have considered. There are three that top our list, but fall just short of deserving inclusion. One holdover, Dale Murphy, and two newcomers, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff. For some reason, voters don't like Dale, preferring to toss votes more toward Andre Dawson or Tim Raines or Dave Parker last year. And he is similar to those players, but we think better. Murphy had 228.963 Total PEVA points in his career after hitting 398 HR, 1266 RBI, with a 0.265 AVE. Those numbers aren't quite good enough for us, but one number is, a 15.767 PEVA EQ. But for this year, our nod goes to Bert and leaves Dale behind. It's unlikely Murphy ever makes the Hall, and he may be just under our radar every year, too, in the future. But of the rest of the holdovers, we like Dale better than the rest.

McGriff and Martinez are interesting candidates to us. You could make the same case for Edgar that we just made for Murphy, Martinez with 227.901 Total PEVA Points and a 15.130 PEVA EQ. He had a higher AVE than Murphy, but was a DH most of his career, which will likely be counted against him. McGriff played on a ton of good teams and put up HR and RBI numbers that almost gets him to automatic inclusion (well at least past automatic inclusion), 493 HR and 1550 RBI. But his PEVA numbers were lower than those numbers suggest at 229.985, because he played on those teams and the PEVA EQ score of 13.319 does not quite cut it for us. (PEVA separates production with rate stats like OBP and SLG to segment some of the production that was dependent on teammates). We won't be surprised if McGriff actually makes the Hall someday, and that would be okay. But he'd be just on the outside looking in for us.

Well, that's about it for now, with the possible exception of not understanding why Lee Smith is thought so highly of, but that might be out penchant to undervalue the relief pitcher compared to the starter. Geez, just like we undervalue the pinch hitter versus the every day player. But that's a debate for another day.

All the best guys from Stat Geek Baseball.

Measuring the Halladay Deal

2009-12-18T09:38:00.003-05:00

Okay, we'll get this right off our chest. We don't like the deal. Not that we don't think it could help the Phillies win a pennant or another World Series during the next two to four years, but because we just like prospects. As Phils fans, we enjoy watching the young guys develop into studs and rooting for our players from the minors to the pros. But are we wrong in that from a statistical standpoint? Is it stupid to hold onto such ideals? Should we be afraid that we'll be watching several years of great baseball, but followed by a mediocre team when the Halladays and his new teammates Rollins, Utley, and Howard age without the two talented minor league studs Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek to help them?

Well here goes our analysis and it's gonna have a lot of conjecture in it to be sure.

Roy Halladay has been a three year PEVA RAVE average of 28.961 and a career PEVA per EQ year of 21.942. He'll be pitching those four years at 33-36 years of age. So we're going to assume some diminution is his performance, and for arguments sake, attribute his career average, not recent PEVA average, to those years.

21.942 x 4 = 87.768 PEVA.

For those not versed in PEVA, 21.942 per year is great, perhaps not Cy Young worthy, but definitely All-League.

But what about those young studs, the outfielder Taylor and the pitcher Drabek. What can we expect over their first 6 years of service before they hit Free Agency? Let's assume Michael Taylor can be Jason Werth ... and Kyle Drabek can mirror Zack Greinke. I know, a large assumption.

Werth, who started out slow in his career, had 21.823 total PEVA points in his first 6 seasons; Greinke for his first 6 seasons had 70.006 total PEVA rating points, including his stellar 2009 year.

That would mean that over 6 years, they would be worth 91.829 PEVA compared to 87.768 PEVA for Halladay. Yes, Halladay's numbers don't include the 4th option year on his new contract, or 6 seasons per the prospects, but they are a guaranteed club player prior to free agency while Halladay may not be.

But overall, you can see, that if the ifs come through, and you have Taylor/Drabek becoming some combination of Werth/Greinke, it's fairly even.

But here's where we have a problem with it. Halladay was only signed for one year prior to agreeing to Philadelphia's extension, and his value in Toronto was one year only. Combine that with the fact that Taylor/Drabek would cost you significantly less than the $75,000,000 that is due Halladay over the next four years, and that that savings could have been applied to other free agent players, and you can see how muddy the waters can be.

I wouldn't have done the trade; I like prospects. I even like contending for the playoffs better than winning a World Series then struggling afterwards. Yes, I wouldn't be a good Marlins fan. But this trade was a much larger gamble than most in the media seem to think, and it will be fascinating to see how it works out. I still think it will work out in the short term, but if Taylor/Drabek become perennial All-Stars, I'd likely choose that course, plus kept Cliff Lee for one year and two prospects ahead. But that's another story altogether.

On Their Way Up

2009-12-10T08:16:00.002-05:00

Up. Up. Up. Up the best ever lists for their respective franchises that is. 2009 saw a number of great performances by players like Pujols, Greinke, Prince Fielder, and others. But were they enough to crack the Top 20 Best Ever Years for the Cardinals, the Royals, or the Brewers. Were they the best ever, #1, for those franchises. We've just calculated the best ever lists for every franchise in baseball history and the new rankings are out.

Check them all @ Best Seasons Ever by Team index page.

But let's give you a preview of the new additions on that list.

1. Arizona Diamondbacks. Sure they're a relatively new franchise, making it a whole lot easier for a player to crack the best ever Top 20 season list. And this year, they got two players who made their case. Dan Haren jumped into the #11 spot in the pitching list with his 14-10 3.14 ERA season while Mark Reynolds now holds the same spot in the batting Top 20 for thsoe 44 HR, 102 RBI season.

2. Colorado Rockies. Now here's a new squad just looking for Top 20 Seasons, especially on the pitching side. And they've got a new #1. Ubaldo Jimenez and his 20.035 PEVA Rating now tops the pile or humidor hurlers in the rarified air of Colorado. And he had company, too. Jason Marquis joins at #3. Jorge de la Rosa at #11. And Huston Street at #14. We get the feeling that Mr. Tulowitski won't be satisfied with having the #9 spot on this list in years to come, but for now his 32 HR, 92 RBI, 0.297 AVE and stellar defensive season in 2009 will have to do. He had company in Todd Helton, too, who jumped into the #20 spot. That's the 8th time Helton appears on the list.

3. Detroit Tigers. Now it's not nearly as easy to jump into the list of Top 20 Pitchers for a club that's been in the American League since the early days, but that's just what Justin Verlander has done. Joining the likes of Hal Newhouser, Dizzy Trout, and Denny McLain, Verlander now occupies the #8 spot with his 2009 season of 19 wins and a 27.965 PEVA rating.

4. Florida Marlins. Okay. Another newbie. And another high ranking in the #4 spot of Josh Johnson. Hanley Ramirez. What more can you say. And if he stays a Marlin for much longer (and that's always in doubt with this franchise), he'll likely have more seasons on the list. For now, the 2009 year jumped him to the #4 spot.

5. Kansas City Royals. Yes, this is the spot for a Greinke siting and it's not too surprising that the Cy Young season of Mr. Zack has him landing in the #2 spot in Royals history behind the 1989 season of Bret Saberhagan. When you just hurled yourself in the #50 spot All-Time, that's pretty special, and his 16-8 record and 2.16 ERA garnered him the coveted runerup spot in KC pitching lore.

6. Milwaukee Brewers. It's not too easy for a relief pitcher to enter into the hallowed halls of a franchise's Top 20 list, but Trevor Hoffman has been doing that for years in a San Diego Padres uniform, and even at 42 years of age (end of season) he's not done yet for the Brewers. His 2009 season warrants a #17 spot. But the batters did a whole lot better than that with Prince Fielder coming in at #2. That's what you get with 46 HR, 141 RBI, and a 34.062 PEVA rating. Not far behind at #5 was Ryan Braun as well.

7. Minnesota Twins. We might be looking at one of the best hitting catchers to ever play the game and in 2009, Joe Mauer took his MVP award and 0.365 batting average to the #3 spot on their list, behind only Ed Delahanty in 1902 and Harmon Killebrew in 1969.

8. New York Yankees. Although it's a lot easier to join their Top 20 pitching list than the batting one (Babe has a lock on a lot of those spots), to pitch your way into the storied franchise best ever seasons countdown is no small feet. And nobody ever said that C.C. Sabathia was small. Count him big at #17 on the Yankee list, joining Guidry, Hunter, Ford, plus Spud Chandler and Jack Chesbro, too.

9. Seattle Mariners. I think most people, particularly on the East Coast, are unaware of the spectacular season that Felix Hernandez had. And at the age of 23, he joined the Mariners best ever list at #2 with his 19-5 2.49 ERA campaign. He almost took the top spot, too, just fractions of a point behind Randy Johnson and his 1995 season. And he may not be done climbing this list yet.

10. San Diego Padres. Another one of those guys whose name keeps coming up in trade, but there's really no good reason to get rid of the wonder named Adrian Gonzalez. While playing in a park better know for wide open spaces, Gonzalez in 2009 had the #2 hitting season in Padre history.

11. San Francisco Giants. There's a lot of names on this list that spark historic memories, from Carl Hubbell to Christy Mathewson to Juan Marichal, but after only two full seasons, Mr. Lincecum now has two spots in the top twenty, coming in at #7 this year.

12. St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter #8. Wainwright #18. Right in there with Gibson and Dean. Pretty good company, don't you think. One of the best players in baseball history period through his 29th birthday, Albert Pujols now stands at #2 for his 2009 year in Cardinal history, with only the great Rogers Hornsby in 1922 standing in his way to the top. Albert already occupies 5 spots in the Top 20.

12. Tampa Bay Rays. This is the easiest list to crack, but the Rays of today are doing just that. James Shields in 2009 at #5 on the pitching list. Evan Longoria at #2, Ben Zobrist at #3, Carl Crawford at #11, Carlos Pena at #14, and Jason Bartlett at #16 on the hitting side.

13. Toronto Blue Jays. They tried to get rid of him most of the summer, but he refused to stop pitching his way into their record books. Roy Halladay took his 2009 season all the way to #6 on their All-Time Pitching Season list and now occupies 5 spots in the Top 20. Adam Lind is one of those players most baseball fans couldn't name, but should be near the top of most fantasy baseball lists in 2010. His 2009 season became the #15 best season in Blue Jay history and he can thank those 35 HR and 114 RBI and 0.305 AVE for most of that 18.508 PEVA rating that helped his join.

14. Washington Nationals. Becoming only the 2nd player to join the Top 20 since moving from Montreal, Ryan Zimmerman cracked the list at #15.

That's it, folks, but it sure was a fun ride. Now check out the other teams and seem where your favorites from the near or far past rank in their team's best ever lists in history.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010

2009-12-08T09:32:00.002-05:00

Hard to believe we're all starting to think in this direction already. It seems like the last game of the World Series was only yesterday. But here we are. It's time to think, at least in the first blush of winter, about Fantasy Baseball and where we should rank the players in 2010. Hard to do without knowing where some free agents will end up, but what the heck. That's never stopped anyone before.

Stat Geek Baseball's rankings rely on two things; 1) the previous year's PEVA rankings from baseballevaluation.com's player rating decision model, and 2) a three year relative average, called RAVE, of a player. RAVE uses a floating value system, giving 50% to 2009 stats, 30% to 2008 stats, and 20% to 2007 stats. Depends on how you think of things and trends, but for want of a better analysis. PEVA is for Current Thinkers. RAVE is for those that think more Long Term.

You can find both full lists (Top 400 Ranked) at Fantasy Baseball 2010 Cheatsheet (PEVA) and Fantasy Baseball 2010 Cheatsheet (RAVE). There's also a printable PDF available on those pages.

But lets' look at the Top Five players on those lists.

Stat Geek Baseball Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010 (PEVA)

Rank	Year	Name	First	Team	Lg	Age	PEVA-T
1	2009	Pujols	Albert	SLN	NL	29	43.976
2	2009	Greinke	Zack	KCA	AL	26	42.305
3	2009	Lincecum	Tim	SFN	NL	25	37.546
4	2009	Carpenter	Chris	SLN	NL	34	35.177
5	2009	Fielder	Prince	MIL	NL	25	34.062

Stat Geek Baseball Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010 (PEVA)

Rank	Year	Name	First	Team	Lg	Age	PEVA-T	RAVE	Track Quotient
1	2009	Pujols	Albert	SLN	NL	29	43.976	29.797	47.59%
2	2009	Sabathia	C.C.	NYA	AL	29	26.289	29.144	-9.80%
3	2009	Halladay	Roy	TOR	AL	32	31.554	28.961	8.95%
4	2009	Haren	Danny	ARI	NL	29	29.954	28.056	6.76%
5	2009	Lincecum	Tim	SFN	NL	25	37.546	26.684	40.71%

No surprise that Albert Pujols tops both lists and would be the top player that most fantasy baseball players would like to pick almost every year. This is a player who you almost can't go wrong with, at least looking at the past. Durable. Spectacular. Even better this past year, by 47.59% than his RAVE average of the past 3 seasons.

But the dilemma begins at number 2. Zach Grienke is a risk, with that one spectacular season, while Tim Lincecum now has two of them in a row. For us, that means Lincecum. But for those who favor an even longer term view, take C.C. Sabathia or Roy Halladay. If you don't have one of the top five picks in your draft, and want to start with a pitcher who has a pretty good shot at giving out good numbers, with durability and prime age in 2010, think Dan Haren. This is one of those consistently good pitchers that most people on the East Coast don't think of as in the category of the others listed, but just look at those last few years, all adding up to a RAVE rating over 28. It's not easy to have a RAVE over 25.000, folks, particularly when your team is an up and down lot.

Take a look at the rest of our list, and plan accordingly. It won't look like all the others, and take into account the defensive component for position players in the PEVA ranking, if, like most leagues, your league does not include defense in its scoring system, but the Stat Geek Baseball rankings might must help you improve your standings in 2010. Here's hoping they do!

MVP and the PEVA Rankings

2009-11-24T14:36:00.002-05:00

So the final two of the big four awards are now in, and while the winners were expected by almost anybody in Joe Mauer, AL MVP, and Albert Pujoks, NL MVP, just how did the votes come down below the winners and how well did the PEVA Rankings do in predicting the best of the best. Well, first off, not quite as well, as with the Cy Young race, although, it is understood that the MVP is about most valuable and not best, which is where PEVA might differ. But I digress. We did pretty well, predicting 7 of the top 10. Combined with the Cy Young Award, that makes us 17 for 20, or 85% correct in predicting the top five place finishers in each league for the four awards.

Yes, we predicted all four winners, and that 85%, but where were we wrong in the MVP races, you ask. Well, here is the Top five Actual, and Top five PEVA, for starters.

MVP Award Voting (AL) - Mauer, Teixeira, Jeter, MCabrera, KMorales
MVP Award Voting (NL) - Pujols, HRamirez, RHoward, PFielder, Tulowitski

PEVA Rankings (AL) - Mauer, Teixeira, Jeter, JBay, MCabrera
PEVA Rankings (NL) - Pujols, PFielder, AGonzales, HRamirez, RBraun

In the American League, we were only off by including Jason Bay and missing on Kendry Morales. Even if PEVA were not solely based on stats, it's debatable who was more important to their team, but we'll accept the miss there. In the National League, it got down to who the better player was, again which PEVA measures, and how voters would gauge a player who did not play for a good team. So the voters left out Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Braun, which PEVA ranked more highly than RHoward or Tulowitski. Yes, they were more valuable in getting their teams to the playoffs.

Check out the Top 40 pitchers and Top 40 positions players in the PEVA Player Ratings for 2009.

Cy Young Winners and PEVA Rankings

2009-11-19T15:35:00.004-05:00

Well, the first two of the big four postseason awards are in, and Zach Greinke and Tim Lincecum are the winners of the awards from the BBWAA. But how did we do, the PEVA Player Rating system, in predicting who was the best. Well, we're two for two. Greinke topped the 2009 PEVA ranking with a Player Rating of 41.843 with Lincecum coming in second at 36.774. But it's not just who topped our list, but the rankings below them that show it's value.

Cy Young Award Voting (AL) - Grienke, FHernandez, JVerlander, CC Sabathia, Halladay
Cy Young Award Voting (NL) - Lincecum, Carpenter, Wainwright, Vazquez, Haren.

PEVA Rankings (AL) - Grienke, FHernandez, Halladay, JVerlander, CC Sabathia
PEVA Rankings (NL) - Lincecum, Carpenter, Vazquez, Haren, Wainwright.

That's 10 for 10 with slight variations in their rankings. So we'll pat our back on that one and check back to see just how well we do in the race for the MVP. Check out the Top 40 pitchers and Top 40 positions players in the PEVA Player Ratings for 2009.

PEVA ratings are preliminary number pending final data and park factors.

Gold Gloves and Silver Mitts

2009-11-12T11:15:00.002-05:00

Well, the Gold Glove Awards have been handed out, as well as our own Silver Mitts, and the debate goes on to just how valid the Gold Glove awards are, or whether they are tainted by the perception of how a player used to field versus how he fields today. Never was that way, or at least to this level. Prior to the debacles of Rafael Palmeiro winning the award for first base in a season (think that was 1999) when he DH'd almost all the time, and the year Bobby Abreu won the gold glove for the outfield. Just ask any Philadelphia Phillies fan who watched Bobby tiptoe his way thru the field in 2005 whether he even deserved to be listed in the top half of all outfielders and you'll get a ribald answer on that.

So this year we have the tried and true Gold Glove winners like Jeter and Torii Hunter and Ichiro who got a lot of votes on past glory, but some new and deserving winners, too, in Adam Jones and Ryan Zimmerman. But where do they all really rank, in our opinion of the stats, in reality, not perception. Well, let's just take a look for fun. Okay.

1B - Gold Glove winners Mark Texeira and Adrian Gonzelez. Both are good fielders, durable and skilled, although in 2009, there might have been better candidates. First, let's admit. First base is a difficult position to go on fielding numbers to determine who's the best. And it's the position people care less about fielding unless the player is completely hamhanded. Teixeria ranked #6 among full-time firstbasemen in the BE Field Value rankings at 1.19 FV (Out of 1.40). He was surehanded with a 0.997 Fielding %, and was durable. His range factor was low, however, at 8.774. Now this certainly had to do, somewhat, with the type of pitchers he played behind, but does indicate, one factor in determining whether he deserves the Gold Glove. We don't put a lot of stock in UZR due to its subjectivity, although that may be a failing in us. Take a look at the stats of Lyle Overbay or Paul Konerko. Would they have been better choices; you decide. As far as Gonzalez. While we think his bat is one of the most underrated in baseball, we think his glove was below the level of Todd Helton, Adam LaRoche, and Albert Pujols in 2009.

2B - Placido Polanco won both the Gold Glove and our Silver Mitt awards. Nuff said, there. Orlando Hudson has been a stellar fielder and we don't have a lot of arguments with the voters selected him, however, Kaz Matsui was our selection based on a higher Fielding Percentage and Range Factor.

3B - Too close to call really with Zimmerman and Longoria ranked #3 and #4 in our Ratings, so close behind the leaders that you'd be hard pressed to debate the number either way. One note, however, is with Melvin Mora, who topped our Field Value list. Mora, who has played all over the diamond during his career, may not be getting a lot of fielding love based on that past flexibility. He has turned himself into a fine third baseman.

SS - Derek Jeter is not one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball. #12 in our Field Value Rankings of Full-Time SS. He is solid, and gets on a highlight reel or two because of individual heady plays, but Jeter does not get to a whole lot of balls and there are better shortstops in the American League such as the youngster Erick Aybar. Jimmy Rollins, despite the perception, does not get to the greatest amount of balls, either, just slightly more than Jeter, but is one of the most surehanded fielders in baseball with the most accurate strong arm for a shortstop I've ever seen. No problem with his being given a Gold Glove, although the extra range of Troy Tulowitski merits our own Silver Mitt.

C - Yadier Molina has received both GG and SM awards, which he richly deserves. Joe Mauer, who we love as a player, get the benefit of the doubt from some voters due to his prowess overall. Gerald Laird, however, is more deserving, to us, of the fielding merits. He led Mauer in all categories of FV. More IP. Higher FPCT. Better Range. Higher Caught Stealing Percentage. Nod should have gone to Laird.

OF - The National League pretty much got it right with Kemp, Bourn, and Victorino, even though there was a slight edge to Nate McLouth, as far as FV (Field Value) is concerned. Too close to call to quibble. But in the American League, with the exception of Adam Jones, there was a whole lot of legacy voting going on. Ichiro has been a great fielder and still performs well, but there are a good amount of younger outfielders who now field as well or better. Same true for Torii Hunter, although we've always thought he was overvalued as a fielder outside the highlight reel catches he's famous for. In 2009, Ichiro ranked #54 in OF Field Value, too far down to consider him Gold Glove caliber. Hunter ranked #24. Now we'll admit that players such as Jason Bay, whose stats are marginalized, and rightfully so in some cases, by playing in front of the Green Monster, but the stats of David DeJesus and Ryan Sweeney show that they should be considered Gold Glove worthy in the future.

2009 Postseason Pitching

2009-11-05T12:07:00.002-05:00

It's coming as somewhat of an expectation, although the outcome of his team was not the same as last, but a Philadelphia Phillies pitcher had the best postseason of any pitcher. Unfortunately for Cliff Lee, nobody else on the staff even came close. The only other staff that had three pitchers in the top five of the 2009 playoffs in pitching prowess were the Yankees, and with Sabathia, Pettite, and Rivera, were too tough to overcome.

Cliff Lee, with a postseason PEVA rating of 4.171 (41.709 Full) jumps into the Top 25 of postseason pitching performances all-time with his stellar 2009 campaign that saw him dominant through almost all of his starts (the final start probably cost him a spot in the Top Ten), but with a 4-0 record over 40.3 innings and an ERA of 1.56, Lee pushed himself into rare territory, as one of a select few pitchers with both a season, 2008 #21, and postseason, 2009 #25, that rank in the Top 25 All-Time. Add in stats like a 5.50 SO/W Ratio and 7.37 WHIP9, and oh, boy. Now if only Cole had been able to come close to his 2008 postseason, but that just wasn't to be.

And the reason for that had a lot to do with C.C. Sabathia and his postseason, too. With a Post PEVA rating of 2.410 (Full 24.096) and an ERA of 1.98 during his 36.3 IP and 3-1 record, Sabathia may not have reached the rarified air of the All-Time Top 40, but he does rank amongst the Top 20 of the decade. Combine that with the performance of the master reliever, Mariano Rivera (1.848 POST PEVA, 18.479 Full), whose ERA of 0.56 over 16 IP just boggles the mind when you consider he does this every postseason, and Game 6 starter Andy Pettite (1.636 POST PEVA, 16.361 Full), and you have a trifecta that couldn't be beat.

Rounding out the Top Five pitchers in postseason 2009 and you have to drop way down the PEVA list to A.J. Burnett and his 0.660 Post (6.604 Full), but he was a Yankee, too.

Que lastima for us Philly fans.

Note: Post PEVA 2009 reflects preliminary values subject to change due to Final Park Factors.

Playoff Predictions

2009-10-13T09:09:00.002-04:00

Playoff predictions, and after the division series, we're 2-2. Well, what went right and what went wrong, that would be the question you, and, we are asking themselves. We did a very simple analysis in the first round. If a team had the higher total team PEVA (player rating) in our Team Power Ratings during the regular season, they got the nod. We didn't get into injuries and who was playing better at the end of the season. If your players were better over the long haul, we gave you the nod. So it was Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals. That seemed to make sense. But something happened on the way to the stadium and as we look further into the PEVA numbers, we're starting to see just what that is.

The second index beyond the Team Power Ratings is our Best Management/Overachievement Index. To see both index, go here. And that is where we might have gone wrong. Both the Red Sox and Cardinals (especially the Cardinals) performed well below the capabilities of their opponent during the year compared to their stats. The Cardinals won 27 games less than they should have with the Pitching and Batting PEVA ratings their players got. That's a heck of a lot of games, by far the worst in baseball in 2009. We should have taken that into account.

Playoff Predictions (Only Using Team Power Rankings)

Colorado Rockies	vs.	Philadelphia Phillies
		WIN (+4 PEVA)
Minnesota Twins	vs.	New York Yankees
		WIN (+18 PEVA)
St. Louis Cardinals	vs.	Los Angeles Dodgers
WIN (+6 PEVA)
Boston Red Sox	vs.	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
WIN (+8 PEVA) And if we had taken that into account for all four division series, our predictions would have looked something like this, and we would have predicted all four series correctly. Of course, it's nothing like hindsight in predictions, so we're just pointing these things out. Playoff Predictions (Only Team Power Rankings/BMO Index) Colorado vs. Philadelphia (+1 PEVA/PRW) WIN Minnesota vs. Yankees (+15 PEVA/PRW) WIN St. Louis vs. LA Dodgers (+14 PEVA/PRW) WIN Boston vs. LA Angels of Anaheim (+2 PEVA/PRW) WIN But now it's time and we have to predict the League Championship Series. And we're going to use both index to do it. And it goes something like this. American League Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. New York Yankees The New York Yankees had a Team Power Rating of 223.453 PEVA during the regular season while the Angels came in at 160.009. This gives the Yankees a Power Rating advantage of 63. The Angels had a BMO index of +13 wins while the Yankees had a BMO index of -14 wins. This gives the Angels a 27 advantage. Overall this gives the nod to the Yankees at +36. Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Yankee victory. National League Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers The Los Angeles Dodgers had a Team Power Rating of 193.985 PEVA during the regular season while the Phils were slightly lower at 178.241. Advantage Dodgers at +15. In the BMO index, the Dodgers were -7 in wins while Philadelphia was -1. Advantage Philadelphia by +6. Overall this gives the nod to the Dodgers at +9. And we hope we are wrong since we're Phillies fans. And we think we're gonna be. Stat Geek Baseball predicts a Dodgers victory.

Coming Up at Baseball Evaluation

2009-10-03T19:30:00.003-04:00

There's a lot on the way at Baseball Evaluation this fall and offseason. We're working to incorporate postseason data and regular season data into the Salary Projection system, and of course, coming with the end of the regular season, will come our Regular Season Player Ratings, as well as the Free Agent Tracker 2010 Salary Projection updates, plus our long term project, the Stat Geek Baseball MySql database.

For an idea of what's coming and when ... with a bit of a concession that the dates are still in flux.

2009 Regular Season Player Ratings (Preliminary) - October 9
Free Agent Tracker 2010 SPRO Update - October 15
2009 Postseason Player Ratings - November 10
2009 Regular Season Player Ratings (Final) - November 15
Stat Geek Baseball 2010 - November 30
MySQL Stat Geek Baseball Database - January 1

There will be other things along the way. Updates to the Best Player Ever lists. Plus predictions, for all sorts of things.

Thanks for making the first year of baseballevaluation.com an eventful year. Stop on back and see what we have in store over the next year as well.

PEVA EQ and the Best Batters Season

2009-09-16T09:43:00.004-04:00

No stat is perfect. We'll start out there. But for the Best Player Per Average Season stat, it was a challenge. And one we didn't come up with ourselves. Thanks to those who made the challenge that went something like this. How can you count a season for a player that was a partial season? And then the counter challenge by us. How can you account for a season in years of differing games, maximum plate appearances, and innings pitched?

Well, it's called PEVA per EXPEQ year. What is PEVA, for those unfamiliar. This is the acronym for the Player Rating in each season that runs from a minimum of 0.200 to a maximum of 64.000. (No player has ever gotten the max figure for a full year.) EXPEQ, a stat used within the Salary Projection model, is our mathematical approximation of Major League Service Time, calculated using a percentage of the season played by use. It accounts for short seasons, and from a player's perspective, the amount of use or potential use he would have gotten considering Innings Pitched, Games Played, and Plate Appearances.

So now we have PEVA per EQ Year (Regular Season), the Average Player Rating for a career considering the amount of seasons (EQ) played. And now for the interesting part. Who was the best batter using this dynamic? Drum roll please. It was Lou Gehrig.

For one of the few times in baseball history when you go through its batting stats, Babe Ruth does not lead in a category, coming in #2 on the list at 31.665 PEVA per EQ year vs. teammate Gehrig at 33.627. Now, of course, when you add in Ruth's prowess on the pitching mound, his value exceeds Lou's, adding about 2.500 points to the yearly tally, so this all has to be taken into context.

But does this mean that Gehrig was actually a better batter than Ruth? No. To us, looking at Total PEVA career, as well as PEVA Per EQ Year, should both be considered, as well as the circumstances at the end of a player's career. Ruth played until he was in his 40th year while Gehrig played into his 36th year. The last four years saw Ruth's Batting PEVA per EQ drop from 34.678 to 31.665. If Gehrig had been fortunate to play those years, his average season would like have been lower as well.

But PEVA per EQ is an interesting, if not perfect value. Just look at the player's who reside at the top of the list. Gehrig and Ruth are followed by Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, Ross Barnes, and Tris Speaker, just to name the Top Ten. That's a mighty fine group of players, including Jackson and Barnes who often don't get listed in Top Tens due to Jackson's truncated playing career and the early days and short amount of seasons for Barnes. BTW. Isn't it time for the veterans committee to look into some of the early era's best and take into account the short seasons played? We know that Barnes' case is hurt by not only those counting stats, but also the fact that he played under 10 seasons. But anyone with a 0.359 career batting average deserves a bit of HOF love, don't you think?

How does PEVA per EQ season treat today's current players? Well, it should come as no surprise that the man of the year, decade, and era is Albert Pujols. If Pujols career stopped today, he would rank #5 on the list @ 28.443 PEVA per EQ. And this year isn't going to diminish that value at all. We're looking at one of the top players of all-time and only that time will tell how far up the career rankings list Pujols will end up at ten years from now.

Check out the full Top 20 list for All-Time Players and Top 5 list for Current Players.

Lidge Expectation

2009-09-09T09:36:00.003-04:00

What should have been expected after a perfect 2009 season, at least perfect from the sense of no blown saves and a World Series championship? Would 0 blown saves have been expected again? No. What was mathematically improbable in one year, particularly with the set of underlying stats that Lidge maintained in 2009, was even less probable for two years in a row. And when you take into account the up and down nature of Lidge's career to that point, one with All-Star level highs and two years prior of average performance, one would assume that the possibility of returning to average performance or All-Star level was likely about the same. But what would come was even less probable, but it has come. Brad Lidge was removed last night from a baseball game in the 9th inning, not because he had blown some saves or been an average pitcher for five months, it was because he was now performing at a level, had the Phillies not given him a 3 year deal worth over $37 million, that would get him into the Arizona Fall League.

And we say this with no pleasure, as the Philadephia Phillies are our favorite team, and we respect and appreciate the stellar season that Brad Lidge gave this town while helping lead them to only the second World Series Championship in team history. But it was not expectation that caused either case to be fulfilled; the wonderful season of 2008 and no blown saves or the season of 2009 when the closer could not find a consistent base at all. It may have been the lack of looking at all of the qualities of a pitcher, but wanting to see only those in the good years.

The 2009 season of Lidge was very good, no doubt about it. But a good deal of credit for that season has to be shared with Charlie Manuel, who used Lidge with perfection at almost every turn. Many of his saves began with more than a one run lead. If memory serves, almost none of them came when Lidge did not start an inning. That's important folks when you think about it. Lidge gives up hits and walks (even last year a WHIP of 1.229, good but not great), but comes through in the end with an unhittable slider when things are going good. This year they are not, giving up 1.816 WHIP and 2.0 HR per 9 inning pitched versus 0.3 HR last year. This all leads to an ERA of 7.11 through September 8 and a PEVA score near 1.000.

But how has Lidge trended throughout his career with his PEVA score (Regular Season).

2003 - 1 Save, 4.396 PEVA
2004 - 29 Saves, 15.433 PEVA
2005 - 42 Saves, 11.321 PEVA
2006 - 32 Saves, 3.112 PEVA
2007 - 19 Saves, 4.858 PEVA
2008 - 41 Saves, 10.887 PEVA

Lidge has been an average to slightly above average pitcher in half of his full seasons, while being an All-Star or slightly below All-Star pitcher in the other three. Expectation. Likely one or the other. And when you start to decipher the contract given in the middle of last year, extending Lidge for three seasons with a 4th year option @ a guaranteed number of $37.5 million,
you can see that the club was counting on the half of Lidge that was All-Star or slightly below.

But his PEVA Player Rating Stats and SPRO Salary Projection numbers indicated all along that you shouldn't count on only the half of Lidge that performs above average level, but consider both. Even after last year's perfect regular season and great playoff performance, SPRO concluded a salary projection for Lidge @ 3 years and $21,644,000. And if you count in this year's performance, it would drop to a 2 year contract and just north of $12,000,000.

And you know, they'd likely be worth it, because in one or two of the next couple years, Brad Lidge will likely rebound to that All-Star or nearly All-Star level closer he is half of the time. We're hoping he rebounds by the time this year's playoffs begin.

The Postseason Bests of All-Time

2009-08-21T09:12:00.002-04:00

Well, I know. We're getting tired of this guy heading all the lists, but whatcha gonna say, the Babe was just the best player of all-time, even without counting his pitching prowess, which actually does come into play here. In postseason ball, most players stick to what they do best. They either hit their way to notoriety in the World Series or playoffs or they pitch their way there. For the Babe, it was mostly his hitting, which would have been enough to land him in the top spot in the All Players Postseason Best List for a Career. At 28.065 POST PEVA, that batting number would have outdistanced him from the #2 man on the list, Yogi Berra, 22.935. However, when you add in the pitching, it raises Ruth to 30.139.

The list of All Player Postseason Career Best contains many of the players we all think of as great, even some who are not quite Hall of Fame worthy, although 24 of the Top 40 are already in the Hall of Fame, including two of this year's class, Joe Gordon at #31 and Rickey Henderson at #36. And when you include those who ten years from now will be inducted (Greg Maddux, Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Schilling, Smoltz, and Chipper Jones) and those who would be without some of their questions (Rose and Manny Ramirez) - Yes, we know Manny might make it anyway, and perhaps even Rose some day - that makes it 32 of 40. Not too shabby.

Now it's always a question to how highly you should rate a player's postseason ability when considering Hall of Fame worthiness. Players don't get an equal shot at World Series notoriety due to their team success or lack of it in the regular season. In the old-timers days, prior to 1903, postseasons were not an every year event, skipping the first decade of pro ball, the 1870s, and most of the 1890s. But there's no doubt that it raises their profile, and should be considered, in that discussion. As we can see, it certainly contains a good deal of the cream rising to the top 40 of this list.

The remainder of the Top Ten includes some of the best postseason players of the past generation, including Reggie Jackson at #6 and Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter at #8 and #9 respectively. One surprise to us was how highly Bernie Williams ranked, coming in at #10. Way to go Bernie.

So another list dominated by the Babe brings out some interesting notes on other players and reminds us of their World Series greatness through the years. Congratulations Postseason Top 40 guys; it is greatly deserved. Go to Top 40 All-Time Postseason Career Players for the list.

Relief Pitchers, Past and Present Bests

2009-08-10T08:51:00.003-04:00

It's just amazing how this role has changed? Just look at the best relief pitching seasons of all-time and you'll see a wide range of pitching eras. From one generation ago when pitchers would hurl over 125 innings from the bullpen to today's closer with a plethora of saves, lots of games pitched, but few innings along the way, and even back to the far reaches of yesteryear, when the innings were high and the wins were high, too.

So with the PEVA Player Ratings System, you can see that era does not matter; it is outcome based on how much you dominated your time. And the top pitching seasons in a relief role goes to men who did that. No, not as much as a starting pitcher. Sorry, folks, they're just not as valuable. And both PEVA and payroll states that. There's no $22 million per year relief pitcher. $15 million seems to be the top of that line. But that does not mean not valuable, or that some seasons of these relief pitchers were not amazing. And the best of them all, #1, reaches back to that one generation ago when some of the best plied the trade, although this pitcher is sometimes a bit forgotten amongst the greats of the era such as Gossage, Sutter, and Fingers. It is 1983 and the best season of a relief pitcher in the history of baseball goes to Dan Quisenberry of the Kansas City Royals. And yes, the Royals were very good back then. Maybe someday they'll be very good again.

Rank	Name		Year	Team	Lg	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	Age	PEVA-P
1	Quisenberry	Dan	1983	KCA	AL	5	3	45	139.0	1.94	30	24.535
2	Gagne	Eric	2003	LAN	NL	2	3	55	82.3	1.20	27	23.161
3	McDaniel	Lindy	1960	SLN	NL	12	4	26	116.3	2.09	25	22.970
4	Moore	Wilcy	1927	NYA	AL	19	7	13	213.0	2.28	30	22.864
5	Hernandez	Willie	1984	DET	AL	9	3	32	140.3	1.92	30	21.765

For the rest of the Top Forty, go to Best Relief Pitching Seasons Ever.

With 45 saves and 5 wins, even today you'd think he performed well, but his 1.94 over 139 innings pitched really begins to tell the story of how a relief pitcher was used and just how valuable he could be. Imagine if today Mariano could perform his magic over twice the amount of innings. First, you'd get a really good pitcher going longer and not rely on the 11th or 12th best pitcher in your organization to pick up those extra frames with their 4.75 Earned Run Averages. Anybody sure the current model, what we're calling Model #3, is really the best one or just the one we've gotten used to. This all added up to a 24.535 PEVA Player Rating, a darn good number even for a starter.

But a different use in the role does not hurt your ability to shine in the best ever relief pitching seasons list. Just ask Eric Gagne, whose 23,161 PEVA in 2003 included 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA over just 82.3 innings, albeit almost perfect ones. This second place finish shows that relief pitchers can be as valuable in this era of limited use when they dominate the field in the 9th inning. And just behind Gagne sits Lindy McDaniel from 1960. This St. Louis Cardinals hurler from two generations past fits the older use model, Model #2, with his inning pitched above 100, but also bridges the gap back to Model #1, the Model T of relief pitching. That's where #4 in the rankings, Wilcy Moore, occupies the slot from 1927. This was a time when saves were not prevalent and starting pitchers went complete games as often as the current lot goes to the health food store. Moore, however, pitched over 200 innings in that era, won 19 games, and saved 13 more. He was a hybrid pitcher, for want of a better term, pitching all over the map for the Yankees in that stellar 1927 season, including 12 starts. And folks, just another couple tidbits reaching back to those days. Moore was in his rookie year in 1927 at the age of 30.

But where are all those other relief pitchers we've come to associate with greatness? Did they have some of the best seasons of all-time, too? Yes, they did. Mariano Rivera, probably the best relief pitcher overall of all-time, sits at #6 and #12, just to name a few. Bruce Sutter's best season, 1979, comes in at #8, and the Goose, Mr. Gossage, holds down the #19 spot, while Mr. Fingers comes in at #10, and Mr. Eckersley at #17.

And what about the most recent past, 2008, for example. Jonathan Papelbon holds down the #40 spot for last year's great relief pitching prowess. 41 saves and a 2.34 over 69.3 innings.

Will we ever see a season like that of Wilcy Moore again? I doubt it. Probably not anything close to that of Sutter, Gossage, Fingers, or Dan Quisenberry either. We're likely to keep going down the path of specialized innings pitched by role players in the relief core. And there will be great seasons among the low IP crowd, no doubt about it. But it would be interesting to see just how Model #1 or Model #2 would work in this Model #3 era. Would give those guys on Baseball Tonight something new to talk about.

The Salary System and the Trade Deadline

2009-07-30T10:42:00.004-04:00

For most baseball fans, the trade deadline is an exciting time. Sure was yesterday for the Phillies faithful, as they got last year's American League Cy Young Award winner, Cliff Lee, and a good young outfielder Ben Francisco to bolster their major league squad toward another World Series run. Same thing for Boston when they got Adam LaRoche. Will likely be for some other well-heeled club when they trade for Roy Halladay. But folks, is this REALLY good for baseball. As many as there are excited fans, there are other teams who have to trade their best talent for the hopes of catching lightning in the barrel with other team's prospects. And while we like to think of this as just another way to make a contending team, and it has worked in the past (i.e. the Florida Marlin strategy), it is that vagary known as the baseball salary structure that is causing all this consternation, whether all good, all bad, or somewhere in between. Geez, are the Pittsburgh Pirates trying to get rid of everybody who can play? Wasn't it just a couple minutes ago that most thought the Cleveland Indians were on the verge of making a big playoff push? And didn't even those Toronto Blue Jays start off this season with a bang, only to be hurt by injuries, and now to be dismantled due to payroll problems?

Of course, the main problem is contracts that some teams can not afford, but we're not going to complain about the top numbers. We all know that those top flight Free Agents, such as Santana, Teixera, CC Sabathia, and coming soon to a Free Agent pool near you, Roy Halladay, are going to end up on a New York or New England or left coast team with money to burn. Guess we should all get used to that. But that doesn't come until a player has six years of service time. But what we're getting now is pushing well below that, talk from the Super Two level through the rest of those arbitration years. Oakland got rid of Blanton and Haren when they had several years left until free agency. Pittsburgh is going that route with (yes the LaRoche's, Bay's, and Sanchez's with impending free agency on the horizon), but also with those like a McLouth. What that now means is you have to start worrying about whether you can afford to keep a player at Super Two time, meaning 1/3 of those players with more than 2 years of major league service time, but less than three, are on the clock.

Is this anyway to run an airline?

But it's not going to change. The players and owners have become comfortable with a system that causes the consternation, which leads to discussion, and we all know that it's that adage about no bad publicity that runs part of the show. Now not most of the show, I realize, that's still called money. Free agents will get theirs, even if the economy slows down the top numbers slightly. Arbitration eligibles will get theirs, although it would be nice if those arbitrators backed up a bit. Was there really a great reason to push Ryan Howard to the stratosphere that early? I know, special player, special arbitration award. So maybe that makes sense. But it does exacerbate the problem.

Geez, maybe it all makes sense. It's the new world order, don't you know. More than half the people in the USA work for the government now, too. So what if over half the free agents end up on a half dozen teams. It'll make for one great trading deadline for those six towns anyway. Just don't count the tears for the others as being eco-friendly.

Congratulations Rickey, Jim, and Joe

2009-07-27T10:07:00.004-04:00

Yesterday, the Hall of Fame saw three new members inducted into its illustrious walls, and congratulations should go out to Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, and Joe Gordon. We are not here to discuss the particular merits of each player. That has been done before. But we're here, perhaps, to put them into context of where they stand within the Hall of Fame, amongst the peers that are already there.

Rickey Henderson. This first ballot Hall of Famer is better than most people think, and most people think he was really good. There are 21 leftfielders inducted at Cooperstown, including the likes of Ted Williams, Billy Williams, and Ralph Kiner. Henderson ranks fifth in Total Regular Season PEVA amongst that 21, behind only Ted, Stan the Man Musial, Ed Delahanty, and Carl Yaztremski. With 331.490 PEVA (Career Player Rating), he ranks at #27 among all position players in history, sandwiched between Frank Thomas and Jim O'Rourke. Yes, Frank will be joining him five years or so from now. He may not have had the highest per season PEVA value @ 13.260, some of which occurred because he hung around the game for a few more years after his peak than most, but that still ranks him #12 out of the #21 leftfielders in the HOF. He was also #26 all-time in Postseason Career ranking, and had one of the Top 4 Batting Postseasons in history in 1989. Congratulations, Rickey, ... well deserved.

Jim Rice. A leftfielder as well as Mr. Henderson, Jim ranked a bit lower on the All-Time lists at #13 (224.084 PEVA Regular Season) of the #21 HOF members, although his per season PEVA average of 14.005 was higher at #10. Ranked amongst all position players for his career, Jim comes in at #93, accounting for the 15 years of waiting for Rice to be inducted. We won't belabor the point here, but there are players in this area that are in and out of the Hall. From a postseason standpoint, Rice had only 2 opportunities to shine, and didn't fare that well at #350 on the list, but it was his steadfast and consistent play near the peak of his era that eventually led to his deserved induction. Well played, Mr. Rice. Welcome to the Hall.

Joe Gordon. It took Mr. Gordon a long time to be inducted by the Veterans Committee this year, and although we're not a big fan of Veterans Committee selections over the years, the player shouldn't be given short shrift amongst today's baseball fan. Joe Gordon was a 2nd Baseman in the Yankee heydey and now sits amongst the #18 2nd sackers in the Hall of Fame. While Gordon is not near the top of the list with 127.893 PEVA Player Rating (Regular Season), ranking him #15, his per season performance raises him to #7. Joe missed two full seasons during World War II. With the addition of those War Years, his overall ranking would have pushed his total ranking to the middle of the pack. That's pretty darn good, and explains a top reason why the Veterans Committee decided that Joe should make it. Being a Yankee in that era, Gordon had a lot of opportunities to showcase his talent in the Fall Classic as well, six times in fact, ranking #23 in All-Time Postseason PEVA with 10.642. Overall, his postseason performance didn't overwhelm, but surely added to his candidacy. Great going, Joe, and congratulations on your induction.

Best Postseason Batters 2000s

2009-07-27T08:54:00.000-04:00

It's not over yet, but we're 90% through, and the list of best performances of the postseason include the same potential problems of the late 1980s. Yes, PED use and what effect it might have had. But if you look a little further down the list, you start to see the name which will go forward, not only into future postseasons, but into the Hall of Fame prior to the others; Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols. And at the end of this year of 2009, we'll get to see just who else has joined the list.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave PEVA
1 2002 Bonds Barry SFN NL 17 8 16 0.356 60.380
2 2003 Rodriguez Ivan FLO NL 17 3 17 0.313 53.829
3 2000 Piazza Mike NYN NL 14 4 8 0.302 49.615
4 2004 Beltran Carlos HOU NL 12 8 14 0.435 47.219
5 2000 Jeter Derek NYA AL 16 4 9 0.317 46.858
6 2004 Pujols Albert SLN NL 15 6 14 0.414 39.515
7 2005 Berkman Lance HOU NL 14 2 14 0.333 38.818
8 2007 Ramirez Manny BOS AL 14 4 16 0.348 38.517
9 2004 Ortiz David BOS AL 14 5 19 0.400 36.660
10 2007 Ortiz David BOS AL 14 3 10 0.370 34.699

Best Postseason Batters 1990s

2009-07-20T14:00:00.000-04:00

Yes, this was the sneak peak decade, and it's a bit of an odd one to us. While player such as Molitor, Puckett, and likely Chipper Jones are Hall of Fame types, the others on the list don't quite rise to that level. Good players, in the case of Bernie Williams, and players who would believe to get the taint of the end of the decade and its reliance or use of performance enhancing drugs.

Name, Year, Team - HR, RBI, AVE/OBP/SLG - PEVA
1. Paul Molitor, 1993, TOR - 3, 13, 0.447/0.527/0.851 - 51.398
2. Billy Hatcher, 1990, CIN - 1, 4, 0.519/0.567/0.889 - 48.270
3. Bernie Williams, 1996, NYA - 6, 15, 0.345/0.435/0.707 - 44.716
4. Scott Brosius, 1998, NYA - 4, 15, 0.383/0.400/0.660 - 43.197
5. Chris Sabo, 1990, CIN - 3, 8, 0.368/0.405/0.632 - 43.443
6. Javy Lopez, 1996, ATL - 3, 8, 0.365/0.443/0.635 - 38.068
7. Lenny Dykstra, 1993, PHI - 6, 10, 0.313/0.450/0.729 - 36.399
8. Gary Sheffield, 1997, FLO - 3, 7, 0.320/0.521/0.540 - 35.476
9. Kirby Puckett, 1991, MIN - 4, 9, 0.333/0.396/0.667 - 34.611
10. Chipper Jones, 1995, ATL - 3, 8, 0.364/0.446/0.618 - 29.148

Postseason Best Batters 1940s

2009-07-20T13:54:00.000-04:00

It was a decade of war, and some of the best players losing seasons to service, allowing some of the remaining players to rise to the top of a leader board in postseason play that perhaps that wouldn't have otherwise topped. But the decade of the 1940s saw the emergence of some of the greatest players in baseball history, including Hank Greenberg, and World Series history, the second baseman for the Yankees who will be enshrined into the Hall of Fame, by the vote of the Veterans Committee, in 2009, Joe Gordon.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave PEVA
1 1944 McQuinn George SLA AL 6 1 5 0.438 55.103
2 1948 Elliott Bob BSN NL 6 2 5 0.333 50.216
3 1941 Keller Charlie NYA AL 5 0 5 0.389 49.450
4 1945 Greenberg Hank DET AL 7 2 7 0.304 48.038
5 1945 Cavarretta Phil CHN NL 7 1 5 0.423 39.955
6 1941 Gordon Joe NYA AL 5 1 5 0.500 39.391
7 1947 Lindell Johnny NYA AL 6 0 7 0.500 38.878
8 1949 Brown Bobby NYA AL 4 0 5 0.500 35.957
9 1946 York Rudy BOS AL 7 2 5 0.261 35.709
10 1943 Dickey Bill NYA AL 5 1 4 0.278 29.418

Coming Next: Postseason Best Batters 2000s

Postseason Best Batters 1930s

2009-07-20T13:49:00.000-04:00

After the stock market crashed in 1929, the next decade was a time of trial and tribulation in American cities. In many ways, it was only inside the ballparks of the sixteen major league teams that the trills of everyday occurred, culminating each year in the fall classic, the World Series.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave. PEVA
1 1932 GehrigLou NYA AL 4 3 8 0.529 64.000
2 1933 Ott Mel NY1 NL 5 2 4 0.389 62.642
3 1939 Keller CharlieNYA AL 4 3 6 0.438 60.460
4 1930 Simmons Al PHA AL 6 2 4 0.364 56.665
5 1931 Martin Pepper SLN NL 7 1 5 0.500 56.065
6 1931 Simmons Al PHA AL 7 2 8 0.333 53.555
7 1930 Cochrane Mickey PHA AL 6 2 4 0.222 48.284
8 1936 Powell Jake NYA AL 6 1 5 0.455 46.763
9 1938 Gordon Joe NYA AL 4 1 6 0.400 37.632
10 1939 Dickey Bill NYA AL 4 2 5 0.267 37.019

Coming Next: Postseason Batting Best 1990s

NL and the All-Star Game

2009-07-15T08:52:00.002-04:00

Com'n guys. This is getting ridiculous. Not since 1996 have you won an All-Star game. And apparently not since 1996 have you taken a pitch when needing one runner to work his way around the bases since the second inning and score a run. I know. I know. This is the new millennium. We don't play small ball anymore. Don't you know we're all stars. We hit the home run. Hey, guys, haven't you noticed, but this is not steroid ball anymore. All you guys are doing is making outs. And quick outs to boot. Yes, there were planes to catch. Yes, there was the post game meals and interviews. But would it be too much to ask if you thought about taking a walk, bunting the guy to second or stealing a base, then getting a single to push the tying or winning run across. This might be the best reason to get rid of the home run derby. Everybody thinks they're a home run hitter, but hey, NL batters, look at the boxscore. You had 5 hits. You batted under the Mendoza line. Ryan Zimmerman. You saw 3 pitches in 2 ABs. Miguel Tejada. You saw 4 in 2 at bats. Stop the madness. Take a walk. Take a pitch. Win a game.

And Charlie. You are the manager of my favorite team, and I know from the interviews you wanted to win this game. But Albert Pujols does not come out of the game until you actually win. Don't tell anyone, but he's on pace to be one of the top five players of All-Time. And Chase Utley does not come out of the game, because he's head and shoulders above the ability of the player behind him. Let's win a game. National League. Then worry about the feelings of everyone on the team. And I know you were probably as frustrated by some of the poor at bats by those reserves you stuck in the game, and it's really hard for an All-Star manager to install some discipline on players not on your own team. But some day, somehow, some National League owner, player, or fan is going to take hold of this festival that used to be a great, great game, and install a little discipline and focus on the players. It's time to win a game. It's time to play it to win. It's time to limit the team back to 25 players who are actually stars of the game. (Geez, if a regular team can exist with a 25 man roster for 162 games, why does a one game All-Star fest need 33). It's time, long past time, for the National League to win.

Best Postseason Batters 1980s

2009-07-14T07:44:00.000-04:00

It would take until the last year of the decade, but it would happen. A perfect PEVA score in the multi playoff round era, ... by Rickey Henderson. The Oakland speedster would produce 20 runs in 9 games, have an OPS of 1.509, and steal 11 bags.

Rk Team Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave. PEVA
1 1989 Henderson Rickey OAK AL 9 3 8 0.441 64.000
2 1983 Matthews Gary PHI NL 9 4 9 0.333 60.342
3 1985 Brett George KCA AL 14 3 6 0.360 52.225
4 1981 Garvey Steve LAN NL 16 3 6 0.359 47.466
5 1984 Trammell Alan DET AL 8 3 9 0.419 46.577
6 1989 Clark Will SFN NL 9 2 8 0.472 44.640
7 1981 Carter Gary MON NL 10 2 6 0.429 43.353
8 1984 Gibson Kirk DET AL 8 3 9 0.367 37.620
9 1980 Aikens Willie KCA AL 9 4 10 0.387 34.232
10 1988 Hatcher Mickey LAN NL 11 2 8 0.300 33.856

Best Postseason Batters 1920s

2009-07-14T07:39:00.000-04:00

Let's try to imagine to thrill baseball fans got when the live ball era began. There was now the chance for a slugfest instead of a pitcher's duel. And while we actually like a pitcher's duel alot, the variety that the long ball era allowed, made the game more exciting and diverse, until steroids came into play and turned some parks into video game galleries.

Now let's try to imagine witnessing the slugging prowess of the Babe in his heyday and the House that Ruth Built, Yankee Stadium, now gone. Try to contain yourself when you're calculating how many home runs Babe would hit in the current new Yankee stadium. Katy, bar the door. Not unlike his dominance over the course of the regular seasons during the Yankee decade, Babe Ruth takes the top four spots in the best World Series of the decade of the 1920s as well.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave PEVA
1 1926 Ruth Babe NYA AL 7 4 5 0.300 62.088
2 1923 Ruth Babe NYA AL 6 3 3 0.368 61.557
3 1927 Ruth Babe NYA AL 4 2 7 0.400 60.021
4 1928 Ruth Babe NYA AL 4 3 4 0.625 59.503
5 1928 Gehrig Lou NYA AL 4 4 9 0.545 57.470
6 1925 Harris Joe WS1 AL 7 3 6 0.440 46.667
7 1927 KoenigMark NYA AL 4 0 2 0.500 44.321
8 1920 SpeakerTris CLE AL 7 0 1 0.320 43.495
9 1922 Groh Heinie NY1 NL 5 0 0 0.474 36.327
10 1924 Goslin Goose WS1 AL 7 3 7 0.344 32.752

Coming Next: Postseason Best Batters 1980s

2009-07-09T14:35:00.000-04:00

Now fully engrossed in a two round playoff system, the best postseasons of the decade of the 1970s came during a time prior to steroid ball, and saw a whole lot of great pitchers battling the batters for supremacy. And there was one player who epitomized that battle from the batter's box more than any other each October, so much so, that he would grab the top two spots in PEVA postseason scores, and be named, long before that honor, as Mr. October. Yes, we're talking Mr. Jackson here, Reggie to you and me. And although he wouldn't be named after a month, Johnny Bench proved, once and for all, that he deserved to be mentioned among the best, if not the best, catchers in history, with two great postseasons during the decade of the Big Red Machine.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave PEVA
1 1978 Jackson Reggie NYA AL 10 4 14 0.417 53.527
2 1977 Jackson Reggie NYA AL 11 5 9 0.306 53.085
3 1972 Bench Johnny CIN NL 12 2 3 0.293 50.909
4 1970 Robinson Brooks BAL AL 8 2 8 0.485 49.434
5 1974 Garvey Steve LAN NL 9 2 6 0.385 44.304
6 1973 Staub Rusty NYN NL 11 4 11 0.341 43.309
7 1973 Campaneris Bert OAK AL 12 3 6 0.308 43.006
8 1976 Bench Johnny CIN NL 7 3 7 0.444 42.608
9 1970 Powell Boog BAL AL 8 3 11 0.355 40.833
10 1971 Robertson Bob PIT NL 11 6 11 0.317 40.364

Postseason Best Batters 1910s

2009-07-09T13:34:00.000-04:00

Once 1910 rolled around, the ball began to fly. Not like it would one decade later, but home runs were hit. And for the first time, a player reaches the maximum PEVA number of 64.000, a number never achieved in the regular season, but would be achieved three more times through 2008 for a postseason batter. Hank Gowdy, a Catcher, had a spectacular postseason, not only batting 0.545, but with an OPS (OBP+SLG) of 1.963. And while it's true that he achieved it in only four games and sixteen at bats, it's still a heck of an achievement. Once the advent of the multiple round playoff format would come into play in 1969, it would become much more difficult to achieve a perfect score, but still possible. See 1989 for the last perfect PEVA score in postseason batting history. It became especially difficult after the current three round format began in 1995. There has yet to be a perfect postseason batting score since.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave PEVA
1 1914 Gowdy Hank BSN NL 4 1 3 0.545 64.000
2 1915 Hooper Harry BOS AL 5 2 3 0.350 62.837
3 1915 Lewis Duffy BOS AL 5 1 5 0.444 61.085
4 1911 Baker Frank PHA AL 6 2 5 0.375 60.480
5 1913 Collins Eddie PHA AL 5 0 3 0.421 56.762
6 1913 Baker Frank PHA AL 5 1 7 0.450 51.709
7 1915 Luderus Fred PHI NL 5 1 6 0.438 50.662
8 1914 Evers Johnny BSN NL 4 0 2 0.438 34.849
9 1916 Hooper Harry BOS AL 5 0 1 0.333 34.628
10 1913 Schang Wally PHA AL 4 1 7 0.357 34.310

Coming Next: Postseason Batting Bests 1970s.

Postseason Best Batters 1960s

2009-07-07T14:20:00.000-04:00

It wouldn't be until the last year of the 1960s that the playoff format of the postseason in baseball would begin, adding another round prior to the World Series. And while this would change, and probably augment the ability to rate a series, in as far as PEVA is concerned, due to the additional games and at bats played, the years before that would provide some stellar moments. One such World Series is the one Carl Yazstremski put together in 1967, number one on the decade list. It was a great year for Yaz, culminating in the seven game stretch in October which saw great hitting (OPS 1.340) and fielding. It's hard to believe that Yaz wouldn't see the postseason again until 1975 and that it would be only other one in his career. But even with only two postseason, Yaz still ranks #34 on the Career Postseason List. Another player who folks tend to forget as being a prime World Series player was Lou Brock. Perhaps it's just the type of player he was and the lack of that type of skill today, but Brock played havoc with the other team when he was on base. And when he was on base, as he was in the 1967 and 1968 World Series, it was a pleasure to watch. 14 Stolen Bases in 14 Games.

Rk Year Name Team Lg G HR RBI Ave. PEVA
1 1967 Yastrzemski Carl BOS AL 7 3 5 0.400 62.624
2 1966 Robinson Frank BAL AL 4 2 3 0.286 62.344
3 1960 Mantle Mickey NYA AL 7 3 11 0.400 59.978
4 1967 Brock Lou SLN NL 7 1 3 0.414 56.032
5 1963 Skowron Bill LAN NL 4 1 3 0.385 54.172
6 1962 Tresh Tom NYA AL 7 1 4 0.321 49.420
7 1962 Hiller Chuck SFN NL 7 1 5 0.269 47.984
8 1964 McCarver Tim SLN NL 7 1 5 0.478 46.461
9 1968 Brock Lou SLN NL 7 2 5 0.464 44.197
10 1965 Fairly Ron LAN NL 7 2 6 0.379 41.621

Postseason Best Batters 1900s

2009-07-05T13:03:00.003-04:00

When the postseason bandwagon began again after an eleven year absence, we finally began to see what most baseball fans consider the World Series format for almost all years since, with a few exceptions when there was none, 1904 for one and 1994 for another. But the first decade of World Series play between the American and National Leagues certainly began in an era without the long ball. Of note below, only two home runs hit among the top ten postseasons of the decade. But we do begin to see the names we've come to associate with baseball history and lore. Most notable among them, Honus Wagner, of Pittsburgh. But the best season of the first decade of AL vs NL play was Roger Bresnehan. Although the numbers listed below may not seem too impressive, it's the numbers beneath them that tell the whole story, including a 0.500 OBP, plus a series that saw little offensive production, outside of Roger. Only 18 runs were scored during the 5 games of the series; that's both teams! The SLG% for the series was 0.225 (Roger 0.438) and that OBP for the series, 0.242.

Rk Year Name Tm HR RBI Ave. PEVA
1 1905 Bresnahan Roger NY1 0 1 0.313 61.259
2 1906 Rohe George CHA 0 4 0.333 39.810
3 1908 Schulte Frank CHN 0 2 0.389 38.101
4 1907 Steinfeldt Harry CHN 0 2 0.471 38.023
5 1905 Donlin Mike NY1 0 1 0.263 33.566
6 1909 Wagner Honus PIT 0 6 0.333 29.815
7 1908 Chance Frank CHN 0 2 0.421 29.657
8 1905 McGann Dan NY1 0 4 0.235 26.689
9 1909 Clarke Fred PIT 2 7 0.211 26.084
10 1903 Parent Freddy BOS 0 4 0.290 25.794

Coming Next: The 1960s.

Postseason Best Batters 1950s

2009-07-03T14:04:00.003-04:00

It was the decade of Mays, Mantle, Aaron, and the Duke. It was a decade that saw the play of the three teams from New York; those Yankees, the Brooklyn Dodgers, and the Giants wrest the hearts of the fans away when two of them moved to the west coast. And it would be a decade that many believe was the best of baseball; the first full decade with the integration of the Negro League ballplayer into the major leagues, a decade prior to free agency and long term contracts, and a decade still versed in listening to the game on the radio versus the television and reading the boxscores in a newspaper. By the time the World Series rolled around each October, the entire country still waited with baited breath for the outcome of each game. Just look at the other names on the list below as well; Dimaggio, Berra, and Eddie Mathews, just to name several. What a great decade it must have been to be a baseball fan.

Rank year Name team lg G HR RBI AVG PEVA
1 1956 Berra Yogi NYA AL 7 3 10 0.360 64.000
2 1952 Snider Duke BRO NL 7 4 8 0.345 52.801
3 1950 DiMaggio Joe NYA AL 4 1 2 0.308 52.107
4 1957 Aaron Hank ML1 NL 7 3 7 0.393 50.155
5 1953 Martin Billy NYA AL 6 2 8 0.500 47.498
6 1951 Dark Alvin NY1 NL 6 1 4 0.417 45.968
7 1954 Thompson HankNY1 NL 4 0 2 0.364 43.225
8 1959 Kluszewski Ted CHA AL 6 3 10 0.391 40.658
9 1952 Mantle Mickey NYA AL 7 2 3 0.345 36.978
10 1957 Mathews Eddie ML1 NL 7 1 4 0.227 34.409

Coming Next: Postseason Baseball 1910s.

Postseason Bests

2009-07-01T11:57:00.001-04:00

Yes, it took awhile, but they're finally here. Postseason bests for each season and career of position players and batters. And during the month of July, we'll be pushing out the best of each decade every two to three days, starting with those boys of history, the pre-World Series days before 1900. (World Series began in 1903) Okay, so not the most compelling from a today point of view, but for those who know their baseball history, the men who started what we now know as Major League Baseball, deserve a whole lot of credit and more than a little light of day. Some of these folks should be in the Hall of Fame, but due to short regular seasons that hurt their counting stats, they're not. But hey, we can at least show just how great some of their postseasons were, even if they were sporadic, starting in 1884 and ending in 1892. So here goes, the Top Ten Postseason Batting/Position Player Year Prior to 1900. So here's to you Hugh Duffy, Cap Anson, and the rest.

Rank/Name, Team, Year, HR, RBI, AVE. - PEVA
1. Hugh Duffy, BSN, 1892, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0.462 AVE. - 60.186 PEVA
2. Barney Gilligan, PRO, 1884, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0.444 AVE. - 53.062 PEVA.
3. Tip O'Neill, SL4, 1886, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0.400 - 42.090 PEVA
4. Jimmy Wolf, LS2, 1890, 0, 8, 0.360 - 41.638
5. Cap Anson, CHN, 1885, 0, 0, 0.423 - 38.108
6. Jerry Denny, PRO, 1884, 1, 2, 0.444 - 38.006
7. King Kelly, CHN, 1885, 0, 0, 0.346 - 36.670
8. Paul Hines, PRO, 1884, 0, 1, 0.250 - 35.971
9. Mike Tiernan, NY1, 1888, 1, 6, 0.342 - 27.668
10. Sam Thompson, DTN, 1887, 2, 7, 0.342 - 27.668

PEVA listed above reflects Total Value. Postseason PEVA is 10% of that amount.

Coming Next - Best Postseason Batting 1950s

Pitching and the DEFENSIVE factor

2009-06-25T13:53:00.001-04:00

Don't get too offended by this comment, because it's not meant to be derogatory to the entire pitching profession, but nobody really cares how well a pitcher fields his position when they're giving out contracts. That does not, however, mean that a pitcher does not have a DEFENSIVE component within his PEVA Pitching Rating Grade, it's just not the traditional kind. When we're talking about DEFENSIVE factors for a Pitcher Grade, it's not about Errors, Putouts, and Assists. It's about Strikeouts, Walks, and Home Runs Allowed.

Those are three stats in the pitcher's line where he has the most control, where he can defend the outcome, and where his defenders and team don't play much of a part. So in the pitcher venacular for PEVA DEFENSIVE components, it is an average of those two component factors (Strikeout to Walk Ratio and HR Allowed per 9 Innings Pitcher), along the same MAX/AVE/MIN scale, that counts.

But isn't that unfairly giving credit to a strikeout pitcher?

No. It gives credit to a pitcher who has control compared to how many he strikes out. One example, Greg Maddux. Most years Maddux would lead the league in SO/W Ratio despite not being a pure strikeout pitcher. (He did strikeout his fair share, BTW, even though his fastball didn't sit in the 90s)

Why should you give so much credit to a pitcher with a low HR/9IP ratio?

Look at Curt Schilling, he'd often give up solo homer or two, but that would be about it. That's true, but since Schilling often was near the top in SO/W ratio (thus being the reason they were only solo homers), his lower HR/9IP factor did not injure the overall PEVA Pitching Rating.

Does this or any other pitching factor play a moderating factor like Run Production does to a position player or even Field Value for that matter?

No. But it all works out in the wash. And that wash is how a pitcher, whether relief or starting, whether playing for a good team or a bad one, is valued when comparing his PEVA to contract terms. And that's where RAVE and EXPEQ comes in, ... but we won't bore you with those Explaining RAVE blog series right now. We'll clue you in on those at a later date. Pennant races are starting to heat up and the All-Star game is coming soon.

Field Value - The Most Controversial Component

2009-06-20T13:26:00.001-04:00

Well, let's just get right into it. In this 5th installment of Explaining PEVA, we're going to try and tackle the questions surrounding Field Value, the DEFENSIVE component for Position Players, and how it works in context with the other five categories.

Is Field Value equal to the other components of the index (i.e. the 2 DURABILITY Factors and the three DEPENDENT and INDEPENDENT production factors discussued earlier) or does it have special value like that of Run Production?

Field Value is one of the six components and in its original incarnation counted the same as any of the other five factor components, however, it became apparent, perhaps one third of the way through the development process, that that would not be accurate. As most sabermetrics fans or proponents know, the position you play has an awful lot to do with your value, and should be weighted differently. But then another question popped into play.

Okay, so a 1st baseman with a gold glove year isn't nearly as valuable as a Shortstop with a gold glove, but what about a 1st Basemen who's pretty bad in the field, but nobody cares because of how valuable he is with the bat? How would the Field Value of that player be adjusted to reflect his true value to a team?

That's where the RPR (Run Production Factor) adjustment comes into play, raising the level of a poor fielder with exceptional production in the overall PEVA factor. While he actual Field Value will remain what it is, when calculating the overall PEVA Player Rating, it will be moderated according to the level of RPR.

Okay, I'm lost. How is the Field Value calculated in the first place, and which positions does the system value the most highly?

Field Value is calculated in the same manner as the other factors, placing a top factor for the player with the MAX value in a category and grading all players between that MAX, the AVERAGE, and the MIN. The MIN is not 0, but a MINIMUM grade we have determined as appropriate within the PEVA system. Unlike other categories, the MAX and AVE change with each position, and the final PEVA Field Value is calculated using the Field Value for each position a player plays and weighted to how many innings a player plays that position.

The system weights the MAX in this way: Catcher 2.10, Shortstop 1.75, Third Base/Outfield 1.70, Second Base 1.50, 1st Base 1.40. The value for a pitcher can be as high as 1.00, depending on the amount of Innings Pitched, but not his value in the field.

I understand why Catcher and Shortstop would be that high, but why is an Outfielder MAX higher than Second Base?

For an outfielder to reach the 1.70 figure, he would most likely have to be a Gold Glove level centerfielder. We don't really know why the Second Base figure calculated with such a low MAX, but suffice it to say, that is how Payroll values the position with a top level fielding 2nd baseman. And you know, just from a subjective point of view. 2nd base is the position many infielders default to in their careers, but it's unlikely that a poor fielder ends up in center field. He may end up in left, but not center.

But what are the components that make up those MAX/AVE/MIN factors for each position? Do you get into Range Factors and newer Zone Ratings, etc? We do use Range Factor due to its objective stats, and even though we think Zone Ratings and other such data is valuable, we have not included it in the calculation for two reasons; its subjectivity and the fact that such data does not have a long historic past for comparing older era players.

Field Value Component Factors (Position, Stat, Weight)

Catcher - IP/GP 25%, Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%,Caught Stealing % 25%

Infield - IP/GP 33%, Fielding PCT 33%, Range Factor 33%
Outfield - IP/GP 25%, Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%
Assists Per 9 IP (or Games Played) 25%

Note 1: Prior to 2000, using Games Played.
Note 2: For Catchers, the Caught Stealing Percentage used from 1960-2006. Prior to 1960, other factors reflect 33%.

So there you have it, an overview of the most controversial aspect in the PEVA factor universe. But while it is controversial, and requires that deviation away from a static max, it is important, and allows a light hitting shortstop with spectacular defensive abilities to warrant the salaries they earn while allowing that lunk hands 1st baseman with the RBI potential to warrant the multi-year $100 million dollar contract.

Sosa and the PED story

2009-06-17T13:18:00.002-04:00

PED. Performance enhancing drugs. Well, now, after all the suspicions and denials by Mr. Sosa, his name has surfaced as one of the 104 players who tested positive in 2003, and if that's true, is another one of the star players of this steroid era to have bitten the infield dirt, or outfield grass in Sammy's case. Hall of Fame. Gone. Reputation. Sullied. Still rich as all get out though, ... isn't that just great.

The thing is, Mr. Sosa was not a special player even with the PED assistance. I know. I know. He hit all those home runs. 609 dingers. And knocked in all those runs. 1682 RBI is one heck of a total. Sure is. Well, okay, he was pretty good. But pretty good in ranking #82 all-time in Total PEVA Player Rating @ 232.726. That's just below Brooks Robinson and only a couple ahead of Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Jimmy Wynn. The point being, Sammy was only in the "maybe they'll get in category" when you look at the totality of his career, including the fact of the parks he played in, the fact he didn't really play defense, or get on-base that much with a 0.344 career OBP. Oh, but he could smile. And he could lie. And he could make money. To bad Sammy doesn't speak English well enough to lie to Congress on his own, otherwise he could ask for membership.

And if all these allegations of PED use are actually true, and you start to factor in the assistance they probably gave him in reaching those totals. Que lastima. Just look at Sammy's stat line. If you accept the fact that he was a PED user in 2003, and that the home run chase between he and McGwire was a PED chase in 1998, then that covers the six best, and only great years, in Sammy's career.

Let's do some quick math deductions.

1996 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.268 Ave. - 16.064 PEVA Rating
1997 - 40 HR, 100 RBI, 0.273 Ave. - 9.113 PEVA
1998 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.251 Ave. - 13.226 PEVA

Ave. Three Years Prior
37.3 HR, 112.7 RBI, 0.263 Ave. - 12.801 PEVA

Ave. Probable Steroid Years (1998-2003)
55.3 HR, 134.7 RBI, 0.302 Ave. - 24.155 PEVA

2004 - 35 HR, 80 RBI, 0.253 Ave. - 6.719 PEVA
2005 - 14 HR, 45 RBI, 0.221 Ave. - 2.214 PEVA
2007 - 21 HR, 92 RBI, 0.252 Ave. - 3.971 PEVA

Ave. Three Years After (2004, 2005, 2007)
23.3 HR, 72.3 RBI, 0.243 Ave. - 4.358 PEVA

So here's what we'll deduce. Sammy Sosa may have been the player who most benefited, in his stats, from the PED era, if the allegations are true. Even if you say that his performance in those six years would have equaled that of his previous three years, that means a loss of ...

108 HR, 132 RBI, and 68.124 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 501 HR, 1550 HR, and 164.602. And what player neighborhood would that be in ... #218 Best Player according to PEVA Ranking, a drop from that #82, just behind Robin Ventura, Roy White, and ahead of Joe Start, Tommy Leach, and Lave Cross.

But that would likely be giving Sammy too much credit, when you look at what happened in his career after the 2003 season. If you say his performance during that six year stretch would have equaled that average year of his previous three and three years after, that means a loss of ...

150 HR, 253.2 RBI, and 93.453 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 459 HR, 1429 HR, and 139.273. And what neighborhood would he be playing in in that more likely scenario ... #307 PEVA Best Player, just behind Cy Williams and Cy Seymour, and ahead of Ken Caminiti, Roger Maris, Denny Lyons, and Garret Anderson. Do you see Hall of Fame next to any of those names?

But what might be the most insidious of the losses that would have occurred, is the one that would have occurred in his pocketbook. SPRO calculation of the lost earnings in the second, and more likely scenario, would be nearly $75,000,000. Yes, that's $75,000,000.

Geez, even in baseball, that's what most would call real money.

Explaining PEVA - #4 Independent Production

2009-06-15T15:24:00.000-04:00

Just what is INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION in the terms of a baseball player? Well, it is those categories or stats that rely predominantly on the player's own abilities, and are less dependent on team fortunes. Baseball is one of the few sports, due to the unique nature of the pitcher versus batter dynamics that has categories of production that are nearly independent of their teammates, while still being in a team game. For a pitcher, we're using Earned Run Average and Walks Plus Hits Over 9 Innings, WHIP9. Yes, this is the traditional WHIP category extended to a value over 9 innings pitched. For a position player, we're using On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage.

The pitching categories are simple standard categories in the PEVA index, measuring their factor values from the relationship between the MAX/AVE/MIN for the season.

For the batting categories of OBP and SLG, it is not so simple, due to their relationship to the average and how some very special players (very few players reach this level in a decade) who rise above a multiple of the average. These players are given special factors above the normal scale when utilizing the OBP or SLG PEVA factor in the calculation of the overall PEVA Player Rating Grade. How special can a player be on that scale? Up to 50% higher than the max.

In a previous installment of Explaining PEVA, you said that OBP and SLG factors could also be modified by a stellar Run Production Factor, isn't that true? Absolutely. For players that produce runs, above and beyond the logic of their OBP or SLG factors, the factors for those categories are adjusted in the calculation to account for that ability. For example, Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins rarely gets on base for a leadoff hitter and really doesn't slug as high as most people think (with some exception for his MVP season of 2006), but he scores and produces runs. This nets him a contract above what most traditional believers in pure OPS think warranted, and while this is an extension of his DEPENDENT production stats and not his INDEPENDENT ones, it is how he has extra values. Now one could argue whether his value would be this high on a team without run producers such as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard batting behind him, but the point is moot when considering Payroll or even Player Rating values, although a player with his statistical profile will likely not be valued as high in an index such as PEVA as some would think, despite the adjustment given for Run Production.

So OBP and SLG factors become very important for the stellar player, especially ones such as Babe Ruth, or even Barry Bonds during those questionable years, when their OBP and SLG went off the scale compared to the average for the season. It is also important to all other players, including those with profiles such as Rollins or other run producers who benefit from good players around them.

Explaining PEVA - #3 W, SV, SV+W

2009-06-10T15:00:00.001-04:00

Let's talk about those pitchers. Past the pitching durability stats (Games, Games Started, and Innings Pitched), two of the remaining four categories that go into the PEVA Player Rating index and Player Grades are pretty straightforward (ERA and WHIP9) in how they fit into the system. One, the dependent category of pitching wins, saves, and wins plus saves, is not that much harder to apply, although it is divided into those three sub-categories.

So when you say subcategories, do you mean to say that Wins is a subcategory worth 1/3 of the value, with Saves and Wins Plus Saves each worth the same?

Short answer would be no. These subcategories are independent of each other, and the pitcher receives a PEVA factor value based on the highest value of the three on the scale from MAX to AVE. to MIN. So if a pitcher has a higher factor of wins compared to the MAX/AVE/MIN, then he does for saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, or wins plus saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, then that's the factor he gets.

Why so complicated?

It's really not that complicated. A starting pitcher needs to be based on how he performs in the most important DEPENDENT category in the game for a starting pitcher, and that would be WINS. But a relief pitcher, particularly a closer whose value per payroll has risen in some true measure to the rise in SAVES, needs a DEPENDENT category that is important to his role. For the pitcher who is neither a true starter or true closer, i.e. spends the majority of the year in neither role, it is unfair to base his DEPENDENT category factor on either by themselves, therefore the use of WINS PLUS SAVES.

What does the term DEPENDENT category mean? It means that the total of wins or saves has as much to do with the team as it does the individual player. There is only one DEPENDENT Production category in use for pitchers (W/S/W+SV) as there is for batters (Run Production).

PEVA CATEGORIES
USE/DURABILITY - Games, Games Started, Innings Pitched (Pitching); Games, Plate Appearances (Batting)
DEPENDENT PRODUCTION - Wins/Saves/Wins Plus Saves (Pitching); Run Production (Batting)
INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION - ERA, Walks/Hits Per 9-WHIP9 (Pitching); On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage (Batting)
DEFENSIVE - HR per 9 IP/SO to W Ratio (Pitching); Field Factor (Position Players/Batters)

We'll discuss how they fit in in a later installment of Explaining PEVA.

Explaining PEVA - #2 Run Production

2009-06-05T14:20:00.000-04:00

Thought it was about time we delved a bit further into the PEVA Major League Baseball Player's Rating system as the 2009 baseball season moves further and we begin to see player value in view again. Back in February, we discussed the girth of the system in our article on Ben Sheets (see Durability and Why the Baseball Evaluation System Values It So Much. The two factors that go into that girth provide 1/3 of the player's value, both for a pitcher or position player. This is true no matter the era or season the player played in, too.

But, oh, that's not very sexy. Girth. Isn't that something only sumo players and offensive lineman find attractive. That's a good point. But the point here is, the PEVA system may gain it's weight from those unsexy girth stats such as Games, Games Started, Plate Appearances, and Innings Pitched, but the alluring stats flesh out the system, and begin to tell us who the stars of the game truly are, not only for a season, but for their careers.

And the first one we'll discuss for Position Players and Batters is likely the most important of them all, ... Run Production. How do we define Run Production? Runs and Runs Batted In combined. No, this is not the Runs Created Stat that many use, where they delete Home Runs from the number so as not to count it twice. We count it twice, as a batter who can not only score that run, but knock it in is more valuable than the other player dependent on a Run Producer, too. There might be some disagreement on our take on this, but after those 5,000 hours of developing the system (and an initial thought to use Runs Created instead), Run Production became the first dependent production stat used in the PEVA index.

Like the value placed on the Durability Stats, the Run Production factor of a player is measured on a scale from the MAXIMUM for the year in question vs. the AVERAGE for the year in question. A player below the average is weighted down to a percentage of the value, based on the same scale. After calculation, this factor becomes one of the six multiples that will make up the PEVA Rating (Scaled between 0-64).

But is Run Production Only as Valuable as Innings Pitched or Plate Appearances, that doesn't seem right?

No, it isn't. Run Production is the Factor which plays a part in other factors as well, which will be discussed further in another Explaining PEVA installment. But for now, it affects the remaining three... Field Factor, On Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage. While all three of those categories have their own inherent factor, they are modified by Run Production if Run Production reaches a certain threshold and the factor for those categories fall below the Run Production factor.

So, for the position player, you can say that Run Production becomes the most important factor of the six categories, although for most players, it is only equal to the others. However, in special circumstances, depending on the type of player and their value to the team, it rises in importance to the PEVA index and to the way players have been paid.

Top Ten Years Position Player - 2000s

2009-05-31T14:55:00.000-04:00

One year to go in Steroid decade number two and it's even more dicey to try and compare players who may have used and may not have used performance enhancing drugs. Of the players on the Top Ten list, only two have not been linked to its use. But we'll let the numbers speak for themselves, and just pose one question. If some of these seasons were aided, and you removed them from the list, just how great do the 1920s seasons of Babe Ruth look again.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 3 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 2001 SFN NL 73 137 0.328 37 55.207
2 5 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 2002 SFN NL 46 110 0.370 38 54.848
3 16 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 2004 SFN NL 45 101 0.362 40 48.632
4 56 rodrial01 Rodriguez Alex 2007 NYA AL 54 156 0.314 32 40.717
5 71 sosasa01 Sosa Sammy 2001 CHN NL 64 160 0.328 33 38.918
6 105 pujolal01 Pujols Albert 2006 SLN NL 49 137 0.331 26 36.422
7 127 howarry01 Howard Ryan 2006 PHI NL 58 149 0.313 27 35.507
8 147 giambja01 Giambi Jason 2000 OAK AL 43 137 0.333 29 34.676
9 150 rodrial01 Rodriguez Alex 2000 SEA AL 41 132 0.316 25 34.588
10 162 rodrial01 Rodriguez Alex 2005 NYA AL 48 130 0.321 30 34.230

Best Position Player Seasons Ever - Top 100 All-Time

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1990s

2009-05-29T14:42:00.001-04:00

Yes, it does. (How did steroids effect the stats, and therefore, the rankings of the best seasons of the decade in the 1990s) Start to get a little sticky this decade as, at least as far as we know, the statistics of the game of baseball began to get marred with the inclusion of steroids into the game. Now, none of us know how pervasive it was, and even with the rumors that some of the best in the game, some included on the list below, have had their names brought through that ringer, we don't now if the playing field was even at all. And if we accept the fact, an unknown one, that the steroid era was predominantly from 1998 to 2003, it could have been much broader.

The year Barry Bonds had in 1993, presumably well before his alleged steroid use began, is one of the best cases he has going forward that Barry Bonds had a deserved Hall of Fame career. Playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bonds was a five tool threat that year, raising his PEVA-B rating to 43.404. Look a little further down the list and you see Mark McGwire's 1998 season, rated 4th in the decade. McGwire did not lead MLB in Run Production that season, 277 to the 292 for Sammy Sosa, his compatriot in the chase for the Home Run Title, now defaced by the rumors of performance enhancing substance use during the chase. And what about Sosa? Where is he on the list? Sosa did not make the top of the list, with an OBP of only 0.377 and an SLG well below the league's best.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 29 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 1993 SFN NL 46 123 0.336 29 43.404
2 49 thomafr04 Thomas Frank 1994 CHA AL 38 101 0.353 26 41.278
3 52 piazzmi01 Piazza Mike 1997 LAN NL 40 124 0.362 29 41.108
4 55 mcgwima01 McGwire Mark 1998 SLN NL 70 147 0.299 35 40.809
5 80 bagweje01 Bagwell Jeff 1994 HOU NL 39 116 0.368 26 38.044
6 112 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 1990 PIT NL 33 114 0.301 26 36.095
7 114 thomafr04 Thomas Frank 1991 CHA AL 32 109 0.318 23 36.023
8 115 bagweje01 Bagwell Jeff 1999 HOU NL 42 126 0.304 31 35.960
9 118 ripkeca01 Ripken Jr. Cal 1991 BAL AL 34 114 0.323 31 35.853
10 130 bondsba01 Bonds Barry 1992 PIT NL 34 103 0.311 28 35.418

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1980s

2009-05-27T14:35:00.001-04:00

Although the decade of the 1980s was less predominant in the number of great years by position players with only 12 rising above the 32.000 PEVA level, the great players of the 1980s were often good, all-around players with good defensive skills. But it still comes as some surprise that the year which ranks as the best is from Robin Yount. Yount's play for Milwaukee in 1982 can get overshadowed, but as a shortstop, he knocked in 114 Runs in a pitcher's stat era, had the highest SLG in a pitcher's park, and batted 0.331, all adding up to the 1st place rating of 45.717. Not far behind was Mike Schmidt in the strike year of 1981. (The short season of a strike year does not count against a player's PEVA rating)

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 21 yountro01 Yount Robin 1982 ML4 AL 29 114 0.331 27 45.717
2 53 schmimi01 Schmidt Mike 1981 PHI NL 31 91 0.316 32 40.963
3 69 brettge01 Brett George 1985 KCA AL 30 112 0.335 32 39.324
4 90 murraed02 Murray Eddie 1984 BAL AL 29 110 0.306 28 37.406
5 111 cansejo01 Canseco Jose 1988 OAK AL 42 124 0.307 24 36.135
6 116 ripkeca01 Ripken Jr. Cal 1984 BAL AL 27 86 0.304 24 35.874
7 119 evansdw01 Evans Dwight 1984 BOS AL 32 104 0.295 33 35.847
8 133 mattido01 Mattingly Don 1986 NYA AL 31 113 0.352 25 35.246
9 149 boggswa01 Boggs Wade 1987 BOS AL 24 89 0.363 29 34.592
10 178 cartega01 Carter Gary 1982 MON NL 29 97 0.293 28 33.521

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1970s

2009-05-25T14:27:00.001-04:00

For the first time in history, it was a catcher dominated a best season of the decade list, and there should be no surprise that it came from Johnny Bench. For fans of the game today under the age of 30, it's hard to fathom a catcher, and the best defensive catcher to boot, that could hit as well as Bench. Yes, there were the years of Mike Piazza during the last decade (but Piazza was a poor defensive catcher), and Piazza's career from a hitting standpoint did approach that of Bench. But Johnny hit 40 HR, knocked in 125 RBI and had a maximum catcher FV of 2.10 in 1972, good enough, by far, to rank as the #1 year of the decade.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 41 benchjo01 Bench Johnny 1972 CIN NL 40 125 0.270 25 42.271
2 144 allendi01 Allen Dick 1972 CHA AL 37 113 0.308 30 34.744
3 152 torrejo01 Torre Joe 1971 SLN NL 24 137 0.363 31 34.530
4 161 fostege01 Foster George 1977 CIN NL 52 149 0.320 29 34.233
5 167 schmimi01 Schmidt Mike 1974 PHI NL 36 116 0.282 25 34.027
6 176 stargwi01 Stargell Willie 1973 PIT NL 44 119 0.299 33 33.533
7 182 lynnfr01 Lynn Fred 1979 BOS AL 39 122 0.333 27 33.455
8 185 murcebo01 Murcer Bobby 1971 NYA AL 25 94 0.331 25 33.373
9 191 benchjo01 Bench Johnny 1974 CIN NL 33 129 0.280 27 33.034
10 193 morgajo02 Morgan Joe 1976 CIN NL 27 111 0.320 33 32.946

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1960s

2009-05-23T14:19:00.001-04:00

With many of the great players from the 1950s playing at a high level in the early 1960s, it is not surprising to see Mays, Mantle, and Aaron predominant the Top Ten list of Position Player seasons during that decade as well. But despite their inclusion five times on the list, it was the year of Frank Robinson for the Cincinnati Reds in 1962 that took the top spot. Combined with power production that produced 136 RBI and 39 HR, his 0.342 batting average elevated Robinson to the top spot in the decade, one year after winning the MVP award in 1961. But guess what, folks, he didn't win the MVP in this most dominant year of the decade. Maury Wills did. Just goes to show you just how important being on a winning squad can be, and how fickle using MVP awards won as a criteria for greatness.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 24 robinfr02 Robinson Frank 1962 CIN NL 39 136 0.342 27 44.982
2 31 mayswi01 Mays Willie 1965 SFN NL 52 112 0.317 34 43.109
3 32 robinfr02 Robinson Frank 1966 BAL AL 49 122 0.316 31 42.918
4 38 mantlmi01 Mantle Mickey 1961 NYA AL 54 128 0.317 30 42.398
5 39 mantlmi01 Mantle Mickey 1960 NYA AL 40 94 0.275 29 42.394
6 48 matheed01 Mathews Eddie 1960 ML1 NL 39 124 0.277 29 41.382
7 54 mayswi01 Mays Willie 1962 SFN NL 49 141 0.304 31 40.947
8 59 yastrca01 Yastrzemski Carl 1967 BOS AL 44 121 0.326 28 40.383
9 61 aaronha01 Aaron Hank 1963 ML1 NL 44 130 0.319 29 40.268
10 72 mayswi01 Mays Willie 1960 SFN NL 29 103 0.319 29 38.898

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1950s

2009-05-21T13:20:00.000-04:00

With all these great players in the most dominant hitting decade of them all, what is Al Rosen doing at the top of the list of best seasons of the 1950s? Geez, among the 27 players who had seasons above the 32.000 PEVA level from 1950 to 1959, how could Al top Mantle, Aaron, Mathews, and Mays? Well, the Cleveland Indians star had a fantastic year in 1953. Beyond the stats listed below, he also scored 115 runs, had 85 walks and only 48 strikeouts. That's 48 strikeouts for a player with 43 homers, folks. Tell that to Ryan Howard. Then there's an OPS of 1.035, and the top rated Field Value for a 3B that year at 1.70. Now he wasn't dominant above the fold compared to the average in those categories as a Ruth, Gehrig, or Bonds in the Top Ten of All-Time Seasons, but his PEVA of 48.401 was good enough to rank #17 All-Time.

But how did he compare to those other greats of the 1950s. Let's take the top three and compare their interval PEVA factors. Although Mantle exceeded Rosen in IPR-SLG, with a dominant 2.07 factor, Mantle's durability factors kept his overall PEVA just slightly below Rosen. With Aaron's 1959 season, while his durability factors were even higher than Rosen's during Aaron's 1959 season, his FV and IPR-OBP factors pulled the overall PEVA into third place. D=Durability (G, PA); RPR (Run Production); FV (Field Value); IPR (Independent Production SLG, OBP)

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 17 rosenal01 Rosen Al 1953 CLE AL 43 145 0.336 29 48.401
2 18 mantlmi01 Mantle Mickey 1956 NYA AL 52 130 0.353 25 47.236
3 45 aaronha01 Aaron Hank 1959 ML1 NL 39 123 0.355 25 41.920
4 47 matheed01 Mathews Eddie 1953 ML1 NL 47 135 0.302 22 41.677
5 57 mantlmi01 Mantle Mickey 1957 NYA AL 34 94 0.365 26 40.637
6 58 musiast01 Musial Stan 1953 SLN NL 30 113 0.337 33 40.502
7 68 mayswi01 Mays Willie 1955 NY1 NL 51 127 0.319 24 39.404
8 74 snidedu01 Snider Duke 1953 BRO NL 42 126 0.336 27 38.655
9 76 matheed01 Mathews Eddie 1959 ML1 NL 46 114 0.306 28 38.592
10 78 camparo01 Campanella Roy 1953 BRO NL 41 142 0.312 32 38.348

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1940s

2009-05-19T12:27:00.001-04:00

Notice the hole in the middle of the Ted Williams legacy. World War II robbed Williams of a chance to jump way up the best player of all-time list when those missing years are added in, but even despite that gap, his career still ranks #6 in Total PEVA for a career. But there's no denying just who stands out in the 1940s as having the best seasons of the decade. Taking the top 4 on the list, Ted Williams not only was the last player to bat 0.400 for a season in 1941, the #2 year on the list, but followed that up with arguably a better season, with 36 HR, 137 RBI, and a 0.356 average.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 6 willite01 Williams Ted 1942 BOS AL 36 137 0.356 24 52.075
2 8 willite01 Williams Ted 1941 BOS AL 37 120 0.406 23 51.730
3 26 willite01 Williams Ted 1946 BOS AL 38 123 0.342 28 44.043
4 46 willite01 Williams Ted 1949 BOS AL 43 159 0.343 31 41.778
5 50 musiast01 Musial Stan 1943 SLN NL 13 81 0.357 23 41.278
6 63 holmeto01 Holmes Tommy 1945 BSN NL 28 117 0.352 28 40.065
7 73 musiast01 Musial Stan 1944 SLN NL 12 94 0.347 24 38.717
8 83 dimagjo01 DiMaggio Joe 1941 NYA AL 30 125 0.357 27 37.809
9 104 willite01 Williams Ted 1947 BOS AL 32 114 0.343 29 36.436
10 121 musiast01 Musial Stan 1948 SLN NL 39 131 0.376 28 35.811

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1930s

2009-05-17T12:22:00.000-04:00

Although his best years did not quite reach Ruthian levels, the decade of the 1930s would once again belong to a Bronx bomber. This time, Lou Gehrig, with a big push from Jimmie Foxx, would take five spots on the Top Ten List of the best seasons by a position player in the 1930s. With 49 HR, 165 RBI, and a 0.363 batting average in 1934, Gehrig would jump to the top of the list at 50.136 PEVA.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 13 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1934 NYA AL 49 165 0.363 31 50.136
2 20 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1936 NYA AL 49 152 0.354 33 45.995
3 36 foxxji01 Foxx Jimmie 1933 PHA AL 48 163 0.356 26 42.539
4 43 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1931 NYA AL 46 163 0.373 36 41.968
5 51 foxxji01 Foxx Jimmie 1932 PHA AL 58 169 0.364 25 41.252
6 62 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1931 NYA AL 46 184 0.341 28 40.131
7 65 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1930 NYA AL 41 174 0.379 27 39.839
8 70 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1930 NYA AL 49 153 0.359 35 39.019
9 84 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1937 NYA AL 37 159 0.351 34 37.760
10 88 foxxji01 Foxx Jimmie 1938 BOS AL 50 175 0.349 31 37.579

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1920s

2009-05-15T12:09:00.000-04:00

The most dominant player ever! The most dominant decade ever! Babe Ruth pounded his way through the 1920s like no other player over a specific period of time in the history of the game, and that dominance was not even close to ever being challenged, even through the present day, not even in the steroid allegation era of Bonds, McGwire, and Rodriguez, and including the statistically challenging seasons from 1998 to 2003. Babe Ruth produced six seasons above 50.000 PEVA in the 1920s alone (there are only 7 more in the history of baseball from position players), and took 7 of the Top Ten years of the decade. And the dominance was not just HR oriented, check out his OBP and SLG in those years compared to the league average. His #1 year in the run was 1923, when he added a 0.393 batting average to the power mix.

But what may be just as important to note about this decade and its relationship to how PEVA is constructed. One dominant player during a season does not preclude another player from dominance as well. Because PEVA does not use a player's ranking in a category, but the player's relationship on the continuum of Maximum to Average values, Lou Gehrig could produce the #11 Best Season in Baseball History (Position Players) in the same year Ruth came in at #7 All-Time.

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 1 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1923 NYA AL 41 131 0.393 28 58.931
2 2 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1920 NYA AL 54 137 0.376 25 55.754
3 4 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1921 NYA AL 59 171 0.378 26 54.876
4 7 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1927 NYA AL 60 164 0.356 32 51.850
5 9 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1926 NYA AL 47 146 0.372 31 51.603
6 10 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1924 NYA AL 46 121 0.378 29 51.324
7 11 gehrilo01 Gehrig Lou 1927 NYA AL 47 175 0.373 24 50.953
8 23 hornsro01 Hornsby Rogers 1922 SLN NL 42 152 0.401 26 45.149
9 44 hornsro01 Hornsby Rogers 1929 CHN NL 39 149 0.380 33 41.923
10 64 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1928 NYA AL 54 142 0.323 33 40.061

Top Ten Years Position Player - 1910s

2009-05-13T12:00:00.001-04:00

Here comes the Babe! But he wasn't the best this decade, only reaching #2 with his Boston year in 1919, prior to his coming dominance one decade in the future. For the 1910s, there were Cobbs, Speakers, and even a disgraced Joe Jackson to contend with. And at the top of the list was the gruff Tiger Cobb, who in 1917, produced a year with a PEVA rating of 48.911 that jumped to the top of the decade Top Ten list. Batting 0.383 with 102 RBI, Cobb's year was one of four that decade that indicated his dominance of the players in his decade. But perhaps the most striking thing about this list is the figure that pops out beside the Bambino in 1919. Babe Ruth hit 29 home runs that year, low in any era to come, but not far below the total, 49, for the other nine players on the best players of the decade list combined. Oh, what was to come!

Top Ten Years of the 1910s

D/ARank Player ID Name First Year Team Lg HR RBI AVG Age PEVA-B
1 14 cobbty01 Cobb Ty 1917 DET AL 6 102 0.383 31 48.911
2 22 ruthba01 Ruth Babe 1919 BOS AL 29 114 0.322 24 45.484
3 28 cobbty01 Cobb Ty 1915 DET AL 3 99 0.369 29 43.671
4 30 speaktr01 Speaker Tris 1912 BOS AL 10 90 0.383 24 43.198
5 37 cobbty01 Cobb Ty 1911 DET AL 8 127 0.420 25 42.464
6 40 speaktr01 Speaker Tris 1916 CLE AL 2 79 0.386 28 42.388
7 81 jacksjo01 Jackson Joe 1912 CLE AL 3 90 0.395 23 37.904
8 85 cobbty01 Cobb Ty 1918 DET AL 3 64 0.382 32 37.701
9 92 speaktr01 Speaker Tris 1914 BOS AL 4 90 0.338 26 37.327
10 101 bakerfr01 Baker Frank 1912 PHA AL 10 130 0.347 26 36.589

Code: D/A Rank - Decade/All-Time Rank
Age: Age at end of year

PEVA Scoreboard
Above 32.000 - Fantastic, MVP candidate
Above 20.000 - All League Player
Above 15.0000 - All Star Player
Above 10.000 - Very Good Player
3.500 - Average Player

Manny, Steroids, and the Money Train

2009-05-11T12:00:00.001-04:00

It's time to put a stop to this. To the continual drip of the steroid juice onto the news pages of baseball, to the careers of what one had assumed was a Hall of Fame player, to the proclivity of a baseball player to harm the game of baseball or even themselves. Oh, I know, how harmed is Manny with all the money he's made. Does he really care about reputation? Or honesty? Or integrity? Or not cheating the game? Probably not. But whether Manny, or ARod, or any of the other supposed cheats of this era care or not, we do, and curing this problem, is not as hard to do as many would think. Okay, MLB and the Union have been moving in a better direction with 50 game suspensions and testing programs for PED's that are currently detectible, but it hasn't gone far enough. On to the new plan, and yes, we'll build on the one already in place and take into consideration you have a Union to bargain with on any new additions to it.

1) The first time penalty should be two-tiered, with the 50 game suspension for those that unknowingly had a PED in their system due to a health store supplement or doctor's script legitimately taken. But, at the discretion of baseball and after a hearing that the player would have to request, if the infraction rose above that level, then a 1 year ban for a first time offense would be invoked.

2) No matter whether it was the 50 game, or 1 year suspension level, not only would the player lose his salary for those suspended game, but he would play the remainder of the year, or subsequent year, (112 games for the 50 game type; 162 games for the 1 year type) at the MLB minimum level (currently $400,000). How harmed is Manny now with the $7.5 million dollar hit when he's coming back in July to make $18 million more for the year? He might think twice if the money train was going to cost him a whole lot more.

3) Any player caught using PEDs would automatically have his current contract revoked. Yes, revoked, Manny would not be due $1 more on the current deal, which may have been illegally obtained due to stats gotten under PED performances. Not one $ more of the $38 million dollars still to come. Any new contract would have to wait until after the 50 game or 1 year suspension and time period of playing under the MLB minimum, per #2 above.

4) #3 above also applies to anyone who admits, or is caught for, PED use, prior to the current year. ARod, you are now playing for the minimum, and the Yankees don't owe you a dime more, if they don't want.

5) All players on the 40 man roster would be subject to a mandatory checking of any prescription with the team doctor to check whether it breached the league PED policy. Not a hard thing to accomplish and it would get rid of doubts, i.e. Manny, of an outside physician making a mistake, or prescribing something that he/she shouldn't.

Would these steps eradicate the problem? Probably not. It wouldn't stop a young Dominican from trying to get his first payday, or a minor leaguer just trying to make the show, or hang onto the show. But it might just get rid of most of the arrogant, self-absorbing, money grubbing players who think they deserve Hall of Fame adulation and record shattering feats, along with obscene, ticket raising salaries, for steroid abusing performances, if they knew the money train was ending if they got caught.

Time to toughen it up, folks, and the time is now!