Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Tale of Two Contracts

January 6, 2009 - After the two week lull of the holiday season when few contracts for free agents were announced, Monday saw an increase in activity as baseball teams sought to fill in the gaps in their rosters. And it was two contracts, not two for the most coveted free agents on the market, not future Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez or even Adam Dunn, but two outfielders just below All-Star caliber that were close in ability in 2008 and far apart in so many other ways.

Pat Burrell, long-term left fielder for the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies was on borrowed time in the city he had called home for his entire career, even after commanding center stage at the parade down Broad Street. He had been a fixture in the town, a solid, hardworking player who fans liked, albeit a player who had a habit of putting up very good numbers, think 30 HR and 90 RBI almost every year, but doing so in such a inconsistent basis within the year that his value dropped on the market. Burrell was also, however, capable of carrying the team on his back for a month like the best in the game, see May/June of 2008 when he and Chase Utley overcame the poor start of Ryan Howard, and by the end of every season, had his 30/90, plus a great OBP and solid Player Grade (12.202 PEVA 2008). But the writing on the wall became magic marker when Raul Ibanez was signed earlier in the offseason to a 3 year contract that Pat's days were done in Philly. And yesterday he signed a 2 year $16 million contract with the World Series runnerups, the Tampa Bay Rays. The contract was below what many thought his value, below the reported 2 year $22 million contract offered by Philadelphis in midseason. And well below the 4 year $40.9 million contract the Stat Geek Baseball Salary Projection model thinks he is worth. And by the end of those years, think he will prove he is worth.

Milton Bradley is somewhere between soup and nuts, but he is a baseball player with ability. Unfortunately, it is ability wrapped in a package not too tightly wound, or too tightly wound, depending on your point of view. But yesterday, the Chicago Cubs offered Bradley a 3 year contract for $30 million dollars. This is a player who while playing in AA ball, got thrown out of a game while walking to the plate prior to the first pitch being thrown. It takes a lot of soup and nuts to do that. But in 2008, Bradley had his best year, with 22 HR and 77 RBI plus a 0.321 Batting Average, which calculated to a 13.810 PEVA Player Grade. And he does have value, but just what is that value. Bradley drives people crazy, has never put together two very good years in a row, and for the three seasons prior to last year, would not have been valuable to a team at all, beyond a reserve, don't count on me roll. But the Cubs, desperate again, preferred Bradley over Burrell, as the entire baseball community did, paying him more.

Don't get us wrong, we still think Bradley is worth good money, $22,476 million over 3 years, not too far below what he got. However, by the end of the next 2-3 years of these two contracts, we're thinking the more productive of the two players will be Burrell. Yes, he's two years older, but a whole lot more consistent as a person and player from year to year. Do we really think it's a coincidence that Bradley has now been a member of 7 different teams over his major league career while Burrell has been on one, which just won a World Series. I don't think anyone thinks that, even the Cubs.

Pat Burrell, 32
2004 - 24 HR, 84 RBI, 0.257 BA, 6.837 PEVA
2005 - 32 HR, 117 RBI, 0.281 BA, 12.813 PEVA
2006 - 29 HR, 95 RBI, 0.258 BA, 11.542 PEVA
2007 - 30 HR, 97 RBI, 0.256 BA, 10.726 PEVA
2008 - 33 HR, 86 RBI, 0.250 BA, 12.202 PEVA

Milton Bradley, 30
2004 - 19 HR, 67 RBI, 0.267 BA, 8.542 PEVA
2005 - 13 HR, 38 RBI, 0.290 BA, 3.882 PEVA
2006 - 14 HR, 52 RBI, 0.276 BA, 4.350 PEVA
2007 - 2/11 13/30 0.292/0.313 (Split Season), 4.233 PEVA
2008 - 22 HR, 77 RBI, 0.321 BA, 13.810 PEVA

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