Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Team Payroll 2009 and Its Value

April 14, 2009 - How wisely did your favorite team spend its cash in 2009? Did they overpay for the talent on the team or get a bargain for the 25 man roster on opening day. The Team Payroll Value Index from baseballevaluation.com compares the actual money spent with the Salary Projection model estimates (SPRO), in order to come up with an index that takes stock of the salaries handed out, ranking them in the order of their effectiveness. This does not represent who is the best team. A team with a low payroll may have spent its dollars wisely or foolishly as well. And it's not impossible for a good team to spend wisely either.

There won't be a whole lot of lists where the San Diego Padres live life at the top in 2009, but spending their money wisely, while going through the firesale caused by internal struggles, was actually one of them. I know this is not a great consolation for fans of the Padres as they watched this past off-season, but the contracts given to the players still on the roster represent good value. Yes, they actually do! And that can't be said for most teams out there, even the good ones.

Rank Team Actual Payroll SPRO Payroll Value Index
1 San Diego Padres $43,734,200 $60,661,000 138.7%
2 Boston Red Sox $121,745,999 $137,618,000 113.0%
3 Oakland Athletics $62,310,000 $67,815,000 108.8%
4 Tampa Bay Rays $63,313,034 $66,312,000 104.7%
5 Washington Nationals $60,328,000 $62,611,000 103.8%
6 Toronto Blue Jays $80,538,300 $83,383,000 103.5%
7 Arizona Diamondbacks $73,516,666 $75,372,000 102.5%
8 Florida Marlins $36,834,000 $37,620,000 102.1%
9 Philadelphia Phillies $113,004,046 $114,549,000 101.4%
10 St. Louis Cardinals $77,605,109 $78,642,000 101.3%
11 Atlanta Braves $96,726,166 $94,225,000 97.4%
12 Pittsburgh Pirates $48,693,000 $47,024,000 96.6%
13 Houston Astros $102,996,414 $96,639,000 93.8%
14 Minnesota Twins $65,299,266 $60,715,000 93.0%
15 Cleveland Indians $81,579,166 $75,022,000 92.0%
16 San Francisco Giants $82,616,450 $75,599,000 91.5%
17 Los Angeles Angels $113,709,000 $101,908,000 89.6%
18 Baltimore Orioles $67,101,666 $56,917,000 84.8%
19 Cincinnati Reds $73,558,500 $61,429,000 83.5%
20 Texas Rangers $68,178,798 $56,769,000 83.3%
21 New York Mets $149,373,987 $124,138,000 83.1%
22
Milwaukee
Brewers
$80,182,502
$65,829,000
82.1%
23 Kansas City Royals $70,519,333 $57,378,000 81.4%
24 Colorado Rockies $75,201,000 $59,947,000 79.7%
25 Seattle Mariners $98,904,166 $76,491,000 77.3%
26 Detroit Tigers $115,085,145 $87,300,000 75.9%
27 Chicago Cubs $134,809,000 $101,633,000 75.4%
28 New York Yankees $201,449,189 $150,648,000 74.8%
29 Chicago White Sox $96,068,500 $70,371,000 73.3%
30 Los Angeles Dodgers $100,414,592 $73,038,000 72.7%

Note: Team Payroll Value Index reflects ranking of Actual 2009 Major League Baseball Payroll on opening day versus SPRO Salary Projection values for the same players on the Opening Day roster. SPRO takes into account Servicer Time, EXPEQ, PEVA, RAVE, and SPRO RAVE. Source: Actual Payroll, USA Today Salary Database.

Top Five
1. San Diego Padres - Okay, go ahead. Explain this one again. Well, it's not too much of a stretch. With a payroll of only $43 million dollars, the San Diego Padres kept a pretty tight hold on their pocketbook this offseason, but still retained several players with very high values, yet relatively low contracts. Yes, Jake Peavy was still on the team on opening day, despite a lot of high profile trade talks during the offseason. While his salary of $11,000,000 is high, for a Cy Young caliber pitcher, his value on the open market would exceed $17,000,000 per year. And don't forget Adrian Gonzalez. A whole lot of people who watch a lot of baseball are not yet on the Adrian bandwagon, but his $3,125,000 contract is a bargain, even considering his Major League Service Time of 3.108 and first year inside the Arbitration window. Remember that with less than this service time, Ryan Howard got awarded a $10,000,000 salary. Now Gonzalez might not be Howard, but they're a lot closer than some think, particularly when you consider that Adrian slugs half of his games in the Grand Canyon of parks, not a bandbox.

2. Boston Red Sox - Yes, it's possible to spend a lot of dough, but get good value back. The Red Sox return a SPRO payroll value of $137,618,000, more than $15 million higher than their actual payroll. It's called bang for your buck. And who gets a whole lot of bang. Try Jason Bay, paid $7.8 million, but worth over $12 million. Josh Beckett, paid $11.2 million, but worth $16. (Remember the A.J. Burnett contract) What about Wakefield? It's not easy to get a solid starting pitcher with lots of experience for $4 million. But the Red Sox did! And before you say, geez, he isn't that good. Remember what other people are paying for 181 IP, 10 W, and a 4.13 ERA.

3. Oakland Athletics - For most people, this comes as no surprise. The folks in the Beanery are noted for keeping tabs on their money belt. But it is a bit of a surprise this season, if only because they brought in a few high profile types to fill out the roster in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera. However, the contract for Cabrera and Giambi, at $4 million each, are great values for their potential and past outcomes. Holliday's contract is pegged about right, and there are players underperforming their wallet for certain; for one example think Eric Chavez, but overall, the A's are getting 8.8% more value for their payroll than the money they are spending.

4. Tampa Bay Rays - This up and coming team has not yet gotten to the dilemma of a high payroll team because most of its prospects are not into the arbitration and free agent windows, but thus far, the management in the bay is keeping good tabs on what they have to spend. And this offseason, their acquisition of Philly's Pat Burrell came at a good price, $7m for 2009, even though Pat's bat would state he deserves more.

5. Washington Nationals - This is not a good team yet. They need their farm system to produce more stars and they need pitching, a whole lot of it, but the front office is spending wisely with its own players such as Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson, and bringing in the free agent slugger like Adam Dunn when a good bargain presents. And he was a good bargain.

Bottom Five
26. Detroit Tigers - Nobody may have been more disappointing in their performance in 2008 than those Tigers, and when you see how and when they spent their money, you can certainly see why. Jeremy Bonderman to be paid $12,500,000, but worth about $4,020,000. Nate Robertson paid $7,000,000, but worth a little north of $4 miillion. Dontrelle Willis paid $10,000,000, but worth $3,653,000. And you could argue they're not even worth that much. When you're overpaying your pitching, it doesn't bode well for your wins or your value.


27. Chicago Cubs - They're trying to bring a World Championship to Wrigley and might just do it this year, but it's coming at a high cost. With the #3 payroll in all the baseball land, $134 million and change, the Cubbies are making an effort to grow into baseball bears. But they're consistently throwing more money at each of their acquisitions than SPRO salary projections say they should. More for Carlos Zambrano, more for Kosuke Fukudome, too much for Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano, too. Now, they're all very good players (maybe not Fukudome, at least yet), but they're rushing out the dollars at a premium, but getting a 25% discount in performance.

28. New York Yankees - We all know about the recent contracts. We've seen the reports. While some teams get home town discounts from the players to play there, the Yankees pay a premium, every time, to make sure each player they want makes it's way into the Bronx. But with their revenue streams, which have just grown even higher with the new park, it doesn't matter if they don't get value for their money on the field. They get value for their money in many other ways.

29. Chicago White Sox - After their World Series win a couple years back, the White Sox paid its players. Jose Contreras with $10 million in 2009; Paul Konerko at $12 million. Not a whole lot of teams think either of those players are worth that kind of money today.

30. Los Angeles Dodgers - No. It's not all Manny's fault. But Manny does contribute to the dilemma. At $23,854,494, Ramirez leads the parade both in hits, runs, and dollars. And if you think he can perform at the level of the last two months of 2008 in 2009 and 2010, then that contract is worth it's weight in gold. But that's doubtful. For the most part, nobody can. They're also paying Jason Schmidt over $15 milllion, and Kuroda over $12. If both of those pitchers give the Dodgers the kind of pitching those dollars represent, then Los Angeles will win a whole lot of games in 2009.

For an example of one team for value page, see the breakdown of the Philadelphia Phillies opening day roster.

For salary projections and player ratings for every player in Major League history, get Stat Geek Baseball 2009.

No comments:

Post a Comment

It's history, baseball style. Check out our new book, Baseball's Best @ 150.  Makes a great gift for the baseball fan. Comprehensive...