Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010

Hard to believe we're all starting to think in this direction already. It seems like the last game of the World Series was only yesterday. But here we are. It's time to think, at least in the first blush of winter, about Fantasy Baseball and where we should rank the players in 2010. Hard to do without knowing where some free agents will end up, but what the heck. That's never stopped anyone before.

Stat Geek Baseball's rankings rely on two things; 1) the previous year's PEVA rankings from baseballevaluation.com's player rating decision model, and 2) a three year relative average, called RAVE, of a player. RAVE uses a floating value system, giving 50% to 2009 stats, 30% to 2008 stats, and 20% to 2007 stats. Depends on how you think of things and trends, but for want of a better analysis. PEVA is for Current Thinkers. RAVE is for those that think more Long Term.

You can find both full lists (Top 400 Ranked) at Fantasy Baseball 2010 Cheatsheet (PEVA) and Fantasy Baseball 2010 Cheatsheet (RAVE). There's also a printable PDF available on those pages.

But lets' look at the Top Five players on those lists.

Stat Geek Baseball Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010 (PEVA)

Rank	Year	Name	First	Team	Lg	Age	PEVA-T
1	2009	Pujols	Albert	SLN	NL	29	43.976
2	2009	Greinke	Zack	KCA	AL	26	42.305
3	2009	Lincecum	Tim	SFN	NL	25	37.546
4	2009	Carpenter	Chris	SLN	NL	34	35.177
5	2009	Fielder	Prince	MIL	NL	25	34.062

Stat Geek Baseball Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2010 (PEVA)

Rank	Year	Name	First	Team	Lg	Age	PEVA-T	RAVE	Track Quotient
1	2009	Pujols	Albert	SLN	NL	29	43.976	29.797	47.59%
2	2009	Sabathia	C.C.	NYA	AL	29	26.289	29.144	-9.80%
3	2009	Halladay	Roy	TOR	AL	32	31.554	28.961	8.95%
4	2009	Haren	Danny	ARI	NL	29	29.954	28.056	6.76%
5	2009	Lincecum	Tim	SFN	NL	25	37.546	26.684	40.71%

No surprise that Albert Pujols tops both lists and would be the top player that most fantasy baseball players would like to pick almost every year. This is a player who you almost can't go wrong with, at least looking at the past. Durable. Spectacular. Even better this past year, by 47.59% than his RAVE average of the past 3 seasons.

But the dilemma begins at number 2. Zach Grienke is a risk, with that one spectacular season, while Tim Lincecum now has two of them in a row. For us, that means Lincecum. But for those who favor an even longer term view, take C.C. Sabathia or Roy Halladay. If you don't have one of the top five picks in your draft, and want to start with a pitcher who has a pretty good shot at giving out good numbers, with durability and prime age in 2010, think Dan Haren. This is one of those consistently good pitchers that most people on the East Coast don't think of as in the category of the others listed, but just look at those last few years, all adding up to a RAVE rating over 28. It's not easy to have a RAVE over 25.000, folks, particularly when your team is an up and down lot.

Take a look at the rest of our list, and plan accordingly. It won't look like all the others, and take into account the defensive component for position players in the PEVA ranking, if, like most leagues, your league does not include defense in its scoring system, but the Stat Geek Baseball rankings might must help you improve your standings in 2010. Here's hoping they do!