Measuring the Halladay Deal

Okay, we'll get this right off our chest. We don't like the deal. Not that we don't think it could help the Phillies win a pennant or another World Series during the next two to four years, but because we just like prospects. As Phils fans, we enjoy watching the young guys develop into studs and rooting for our players from the minors to the pros. But are we wrong in that from a statistical standpoint? Is it stupid to hold onto such ideals? Should we be afraid that we'll be watching several years of great baseball, but followed by a mediocre team when the Halladays and his new teammates Rollins, Utley, and Howard age without the two talented minor league studs Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek to help them?

Well here goes our analysis and it's gonna have a lot of conjecture in it to be sure.

Roy Halladay has been a three year PEVA RAVE average of 28.961 and a career PEVA per EQ year of 21.942. He'll be pitching those four years at 33-36 years of age. So we're going to assume some diminution is his performance, and for arguments sake, attribute his career average, not recent PEVA average, to those years.

21.942 x 4 = 87.768 PEVA.

For those not versed in PEVA, 21.942 per year is great, perhaps not Cy Young worthy, but definitely All-League.

But what about those young studs, the outfielder Taylor and the pitcher Drabek. What can we expect over their first 6 years of service before they hit Free Agency? Let's assume Michael Taylor can be Jason Werth ... and Kyle Drabek can mirror Zack Greinke. I know, a large assumption.

Werth, who started out slow in his career, had 21.823 total PEVA points in his first 6 seasons; Greinke for his first 6 seasons had 70.006 total PEVA rating points, including his stellar 2009 year.

That would mean that over 6 years, they would be worth 91.829 PEVA compared to 87.768 PEVA for Halladay. Yes, Halladay's numbers don't include the 4th option year on his new contract, or 6 seasons per the prospects, but they are a guaranteed club player prior to free agency while Halladay may not be.

But overall, you can see, that if the ifs come through, and you have Taylor/Drabek becoming some combination of Werth/Greinke, it's fairly even.

But here's where we have a problem with it. Halladay was only signed for one year prior to agreeing to Philadelphia's extension, and his value in Toronto was one year only. Combine that with the fact that Taylor/Drabek would cost you significantly less than the $75,000,000 that is due Halladay over the next four years, and that that savings could have been applied to other free agent players, and you can see how muddy the waters can be.

I wouldn't have done the trade; I like prospects. I even like contending for the playoffs better than winning a World Series then struggling afterwards. Yes, I wouldn't be a good Marlins fan. But this trade was a much larger gamble than most in the media seem to think, and it will be fascinating to see how it works out. I still think it will work out in the short term, but if Taylor/Drabek become perennial All-Stars, I'd likely choose that course, plus kept Cliff Lee for one year and two prospects ahead. But that's another story altogether.