Ryan Howard: Was He Worth It?

Yes and No. Boy, now there's taking a stand for ya. But it really is a yes and no question. The contract Ryan Howard just signed for the 2012 to 2016 seasons, with a more than reasonable chance of having his option year picked up (it will only cost the Phillies $13 million more for one extra year), is where the market seems to be for MVP caliber talent. Just see the Joe Mauer deal, which was 8 years and $184 million dollars, or $23 million dollars per year. The Howard contract is essentially the same, including the option year, which makes it 6 years and $138 million, or $23 million dollars per year. We won't start discussing Albert Pujols here; he is in another class as a top of the Hall of Fame level player.

So how does Howard fare against the SPRO numbers? Where does the baseballevaluation.com Salary Projection system place him?

Actually, pretty darn close. While we have some issue with the length of contract (essentially one year shorter) and do think that the arbitrator got it wrong and pushed Howard's arbitration year numbers too high, we're still only slightly on the low end of this salary scale. We think Howard deserves a 5 year contract, starting in the 2012 season, at $103.398 million, or an average of $20.7 million per year.

So now we get into the no territory.

We have no problem with his age or the fact that in the last years, the value of his performance may not keep pace with the contract dollars. That's the way of the MLB contract wars. We do, however, think, that the scale of dollars, which for Howard escalates from $20 million in 2012 and 2013 to $25 million in each of the last three years with a guaranteed buyout for $10 million if his 2017 option is not picked up, starts a bit too high. But perhaps we should be rethinking that as well. It is what it is, as they say.

But it does beg the question about why a stellar MVP level performer is worth $6.5 million more than a player, say a Jason Bay, who got 4 years and $66 million, with an option year for $17 million (average of $16.5 million guaranteed). It begs the question whether someone with a slightly lower pedigree, if he had played with perennial All-Star level talent above him in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, would get if circumstances were different. BTW, the SPRO numbers for Bay were for 6 years and $99 million (average $16.5 million).

But I guess we'll never know, although Bay is doing pretty well in his current circumstance now with pretty good players above him and did the same last year in Boston.

So the answer is still yes and no. Yes, Ryan Howard was paid an appropriate level considering the salary scale in Major League Baseball today, although we think it should have been a little lower. But all in all, as Phillies fans, we're really glad the Phillies took the new bull by the horns and paid him. Now I wonder if we have any money left over for Jason Werth. Oh, well, that's a discussion for another day.

Note: The length of Howard's SPRO contract is inclusive of his two remaining contract years, i.e. would have been 7 years in length.