Monday, November 8, 2010

Bill Hall Free Agent Analysis

Analysis

Okay, here's the consternation with Hall. Just what are you getting here? He's only 31 years old, so the wane really shouldn't have taken over his career, but it seems like it might have. At one time, back in the days of 2005 and 2006 in Milwaukee, Hall had plus starter written all over him, with years of 17 HR and 62 RBI followed by 35 HR and 85 RBI, with that last year added up to a very respectable PEVA rating of 11.905. Pretty good stuff at 27 years of age. But now it's four years later and what we're seeing is a platoon player, and one, we're not real sure whether a playoff contending team should want.

Whoa, there, ... maybe we're jumping to the wrong conclusion and are just plain wrong about that. Sure, Hall is a low batting average and low OBP guy at this point in his career and someone you're not looking at as an everyday starter, but he did hit 18 HR for Boston in 2010 and played every outfield and infield position except first base (and he can probably do that). Perhaps this is just the type of hitter/fielder a contending team needs, as long as the price is right.

But what about that price. And just what role would that contending team be talking about? Let's assume he's a platoon player again, one who will be getting 300 to 400 ABs.

PEVA RATINGS - FOUR YEARS PRIOR TO FREE AGENCY
Bill Hall Year
4.538 2007
3.733 2008
2.459 2009
3.093 2010
3.031 RAVE

Last year, Hall was paid $8,525,000, but he's looking at a significant drop from that number in 2010. SPRO Salary Projections state that he's looking like a $3,000,000 player now, and that's only because there's still a bit of a look back five years quality and hope that he can repeat some of those headier days.

Personally, we're still a little conflicted on whether Hall's worth those numbers and might be more comfortable in the $2.5 million range. But SPRO is holding out hope. It will be interesting to see just what type of team, a playoff contender or just one looking for production from a cheaper alternative, will take that risk, and whether it will pay off.

SPRO PROJECTIONS - Bill Hall

2011 - $3,021,000
2012 - $3,127,000
Total Contract - 2 years @ 6,148,000

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