Friday, March 18, 2011

American League Team Predictions 2011

American League

Wins Loss
American League East

New York Yankees 97 65
Boston Red Sox * 90 72
Tampa Bay Rays 76 86
Baltimore Orioles 76 86
Toronto Blue Jays 71 91
American League Central

Detroit Tigers 86 76
Chicago White Sox 84 78
Minnesota Twins 82 80
Cleveland Indians 70 92
Kansas City Royals 65 97
American League West

Texas Rangers 92 70
Oakland A's 84 78
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 81 81
Seattle Mariners 71 91



Wild Card Winner - Boston Red Sox

Note: Team predictions based on relationship of PEVA Shuffle Index - Preseason 2011 to wins and losses.

American League East
There are a whole lot of people who think the Boston Red Sox made the biggest gains this offseason and will best the Yankees for the top of the American League East in 2011. We're not one of them. While the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will add a new dynamic to their offense, we're just not as sure about their pitching. Of course, a big rebound by Josh Beckett will go a long way toward mitigating that concern and it's not like we're fans of the Rafael Soriano huge contract, either to pitch in the eighth inning or an eventual ninth if needed. We just think the offense of New York, with pillers at every position and new emerging players like Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner will take the cake. But don't fret Red Sox fans, we still think you're gonna make the playoffs as the real Wild Card, before Bud adds another spud to the Wild Card mix in another year or two.

Unfortunately for the rest of the division, they're gonna be playing for themselves as we see no way for the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Rays to contend for the playoffs in 2011. But there are some quiet good things happening in Baltimore as they surround young players like Markakis, Wieters, and Jones with veterans who know how to win. We just wish they knew how to pitch. And there's gonna be a lull in Ray land until all those draft picks they gained from losing free agents come of age. Hopefully Evan Longoria won't get too frustrated by then. The Blue Jays are really counting on young pitchers to make up for the two years of losing their top gun, plus a newly found power hitter in Bautista remaining so for years. We like some players here such as Lind and Hill, plus Drabek in out years, but not this year.

American League Central
This is going to be an exciting race that could go down to the last week between three teams. And even though we're picking, statistically, the Detroit Tigers, to come out on top, it really could be any of the three. There's things to like about all three. Miguel Cabrera and young pitchers in Verlander and Porcello coming of age. In Chicago, the south side has added what we think will end up being the best offensive free agent signing of the offseason in Adam Dunn, and they have just enough pitching to keep competitive in the Central with Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and the rest of the cast. If Minnesota can get and stay healthy, they might even be the favorite, but the injury woes of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, and to a lesser extent, Joe Mauer, will go a long way to determining the winner here. We actually think all three are bound to have great years and rebound from last season, but for now, the shuffle index goes with Detroit, winning in two games over Chicago, and four games over Minnesota. It's going to be a fascinating time around the Great Lakes this year. Give the Indians and Royals a couple more years and we think you're gonna see some special things from these teams. Kansas City has, in almost all the experts opinions, the best farm system in baseball with prospects at all corners. Think three years down the line, but they are coming. Some of the comers are already there for Cleveland, but the young players they gained from trades like Lee to Philadelphia, are gonna have growing pains. Donald, Carrasco, and others will start to pay dividends in 2011, but not large ones just yet. And we are rooting for a complete return of Grady Sizemore to the greatness everybody saw in him two to three years ago.

American League West
We didn't foresee the rise of the Texas Rangers last year. But this season, we do see them repeating as AL West champs. Probably don't have them in the World Series again though. And that young crew at Oakland is going to make a lot of waves with a dynamic pitching staff of Anderson, Braden, Gonzalez, and more. We don't think they have enough offense to win 90 games, which we think it would take to overcome Texas, but there's going to be more than a few teams not wanting to take that road trip to the Oakland Coliseum (and it's not because of the stadium) and face those young arms. We think the Angels have just enough to hang around awhile and finish near 0.500. Just don't think they have enough to contend through September. We do, however, like some of their arms as well and expect good years from Weaver, Santana, and Haren. But they could have used one of those stellar free agents to drop into Anaheim and prop up the offense. For Seattle, they have two of the most dynamic players in the game in Ichiro and Felix. Unfortunately, there's just not enough others around, although some are young and good, to win in 2011. But don't give up hope, we were wrong about the Rangers last year.

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