MVP 2012, Who Should Win and Who Will Win

I don't know, but it seems like no brainers to me when we're thinking about who should and will win the Most Valuable Player awards in each league for 2012.  The fact that there's any debate over that question in the American League after Miguel Cabrera wins the Triple Crown just goes how far the advanced SABR stats have entered the universe.  But folks, and we're all about advanced stats here, let's not short shrift the stats in the Triple Crown either.  Okay, so Home Runs are more sexy than important, but they are still important.  The impact they have on the game, besides the run production value, creates intangibles up and down the lineup in how a team pitches another team, on how many pitches and walks are given out, and it is that home run which drives that debate.  Just ask the Philadelphia Phillies how their lineup dynamic changed in the second half of 2012 when a gimpy and marginally effective Ryan Howard entered it.  All of a sudden, there was a balance and rythmn in the lineup as pitchers feared the #4 hitter again.  Oh, but we digress.  And Runs Batted In, ... it's still the most important stat on the batting side, even for all those OPS lovers out there.  Remember, OPS does not tell us anything about durability and how often that player is important.  But if you've led your league in RBI, even on a team with table setters, it means you've played in a whole bunch of games and impacted most.  It's why we're not all up in the Josh Hamilton is great sweepstakes.  He just doesn't take the field often enough for us.  Think the Texas Rangers might have been a division winner and not had to take the chance of losing that wild card knockout game if Hamilton had appeared in more than 148 games in 2012, or 121, or 133, or 89 as in the previous years.  Oh, but we digress again.

The American League MVP
Most of the reason, even beyond the Triple Crown argument, that we can't, or they shouldn't select Mike Trout as the MVP of the American League, no matter how spectacular a rookie season he had, and there's no doubt that he had one of the best rookie years ever, is the same argument against Josh Hamilton, albeit for a totally different reason, ... he wasn't on the field for 23 games.  I know, some say that's an argument for the other side, that if he'd played the full season and come up from the minors earlier, his stats would have been even more redonkulus.  They would have been, but he didn't.  And for those 23 games, his MVP status was nill, and nill meant Angel losses, and those losses meant a loss of a playoff berth.  So for that reason and the opening paragraph reasons above, Miguel Cabrera is our MVP for the 2012 AL season.  And he's gonna win it with the writers, too.

Who Should Win - Miguel Cabrera, Detrot Tigers
Who Will Win - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Top Five - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers; Robinson Cano, New York Yankees; Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays.

The National League MVP
It's a much closer race here and there would be no real argument against either, with one caveat.  The writer's are likely going to reward the player whose team made a splash in playing well down the stretch, and making the playoffs.  The other, sorry Andrew McCutcheon, because you were the best of the best for most of the season, played on a team that collapsed down the stretch and didn't make it to 0.500.  So, Buster Posey, you with the Batting Title won from your colleague, are the Most Valuable Player in the National League over a well-deserved second place contender.  You batted 0.336, were on-base 0.408, and slugged at a clip of 0.549.  Add to that the fact you're a catcher on a team going to the playoffs, and that spells MVP to us.  And it's gonna spell that to the writers, as well.  Oh, no, we agreed on both.


Who Should Win - Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Who Will Win - Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Top Five - Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; Andrew McCutcheon, Pittsburgh Pirates; Chase Headley, San Diego Padres; Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers; David Wright, New York Mets.

Top 40 Batters 2012