Monday, February 18, 2013

Ten Most Overpaid Players This Year

We've seen a number of lists that discuss what are the worst contracts in baseball, so we'll address that question with a bit of a twist.  Let's just focus on this upcoming season and compare what they're being paid with what they're worth based on the past few years.  Some, like Ryan Howard, have been hurt, and are bound to look better in the light of day after a full season of play in 2013.  Not that his contract won't still be overvalued, I'm guessing, but it won't look nearly that bad.  There are others, such as the number one man, Alex Rodriguez, who are bound to look worse after 2013.  But let's have at it.  These are the ten most overpaid players for the 2013 season.  It's not a comprehensive list; we may have forgotten someone.  It will compare the actual salary for 2013 against the SPRO (Salary Projection Model) that takes into account the last four seasons of a player's career and projects forward.

Ten Most Overpaid Players for 2013

1) Alex Rodriguez, Actual Salary $28,000,000, SPRO $8,231,000
As each year passes and particularly with this upcoming season that might see Rodriguez miss most or not all with injury, that megadeal gets worse and worse.  And it was bad when it was given, with bonus payments for milestone marks into the years of his 40s.  Even if you discount the PED allegations, it's as if the Yankees forgot the history of the game and how stats decline.

2) Johan Santana, Actual Salary $25,500,000, SPRO $6,119,000
Yes, I know we're now in an age where King Felix gets a contract paying out $27m contract numbers in out years, but Johan should be showing clubs the way these contracts can go sour.  Santana was just as good a sign several years back as Hernandez, but it just makes so little sense to pay behind the $20m mark from a production standpoint and to do it that far into the future seems to rarely pay off.

3) Vernon Wells, Actual Salary $21,000,000, SPRO $5,756,000.
Never worth the numbers he was given as he was always in the class of outfielders whose production looked sexier than it was (i.e. Alfonso Soriano and Carl Crawford, as we'll see later).

4) Carl Crawford, Actual Salary $20,000,000, SPRO $5,241,000.
Didn't take long, now did it.  Crawford's deal was terrible the day it was signed.  He was never really much greater a player than Shane Victorino, who just signed for $13m per year, and that's too much.

5) Barry Zito, Actual Salary $20,000,000, SPRO $6,314,000.
He pitched well in the playoffs and this signing hasn't hurt San Francisco as they've won the World Series twice within the contract's tenure.

6) Ryan Howard, Actual Salary $20,000,000, SPRO $6,434,000.
Yes, the $25m per year numbers that will start, I think, next year, don't look good at all.  But he'll likely have a good year ($15m type season) this year that will make the contract a little easier to take.

7) Chase Utley, Actual Salary $15,000,000, SPRO $3,936,000.
Not hard to see why the Phils struggled last year, but I think we'll see a rebound from both this season, at least that's what this Philadelphia fan is hoping.  Utley's contract was fine in the earlier years, perhaps even undervalued.  Not the case in the last two.

8) John Danks, Actual Salary $14,250,000, SPRO $4,182,000.
Just goes to show how far he's fallen that I didn't even remember he'd gotten that good of a deal.

9) Brian Roberts, Actual Salary $10,000,000, SPRO $850,000.
He'd actually have a hard time getting what amounts to a major league vet minimum type of deal if he signed today, and it might even be a minor league deal to boot.

10) John Lackey, Actual Salary $15,250,000, SPRO $7,757,000.
Injuries have sapped any possibility of Lackey giving performance anywhere near the contract value.

What, no Albert Pujols?  No, he's not been bad, just not the Albert of old, and the length and value of his contract going forward makes more than a few nervous about how bad the contract will become.  But Albert's bad seasons are close to the best of other players, so, no, his contract for 2013, which pays him only $16m is not bad at all for the Angels.  Of course, that's pending a better start than last year's.

No comments:

Post a Comment