Week Two Countdown

The countdown clock continues with a focus on pitchers in the second week for the franchises from Red Sox nation to White Sox lore, plus a bunch of teams in between. And what you begin to see when you start comparing the best better and best pitchers in the PEVA career totals is, ... geez, some teams were much better at hitting than pitching over their history, and for some, it's almost glaring. We're getting ahead of ourselves here, but the Philadelphia Phillies were so bad at pitching over their history that current players with limited years and accomplishments are already in the top ten, i.e. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. And that's kinda true, in many ways, for those from Red Sox nation and explains why it took so long to get those championship seasons going again. In Red Sox history, only four pitchers have reached the 100 Career PEVA mark, while 19 hitters have done the same. But we're not focusing on that franchise today and those four pitchers mentioned, we're going to look at the second franchise in many Chicago hearts, the Chicago White Sox, where it's a bit more even with 11 batters and 7 pitchers reaching that rarified territory. And we're going to keep the suspense going a bit at the top and let you guess later who might top the pinnacle.

#3 - Red Faber	1933	177.153	20	8.858	254	213	28	4086.3	3.15
#4 - Billy Pierce	1961	163.992	13	12.615	186	152	19	2931.0	3.19
#5 - Wilber Wood	1978	140.663	12	11.722	163	148	57	2524.3	3.18
#6 - Mark Buehrle	2009	139.037	10	13.904	135	97	0	2061.0	3.80
#7 - Eddie Cicotte	1920	122.749	9	13.639	156	102	21	2322.3	2.25

Five of the Top Ten
3. Red Faber. He last pitched in a White Sox uniform in 1933 and he had been pitching there for awhile, twenty seasons in fact. And during those twenty seasons, he would win 254 Games, pitch over 4,000 innings, and all to the ERA tune of 3.15. There were two pitchers in White Sox history who were better, but not much, as the 177.153 PEVA Career Points are only 36 points behind number one. Can you guess who that is yet?

4. Billy Pierce. His career was shorter in Chicago than Faber, but more recent, ending in 1961. For thirteen seasons, he would toil on the mound at Comiskey Park and tally 186 wins, a 3.19 ERA, and 163.992 PEVA ratings points. The top two pitchers in franchise history would win more games, although the man in the number one spot only nine more.

5. Wilbur Wood. He won games, he saved games, he pitched alot a knuckle balls. And all that added up to the #5 spot in the career pitching list for the Chicago White Sox in a career that lasted twelve seasons, ending in 1978. Wood's a pitcher people remember. He was interesting to watch. And with those 163 victories and 57 saves, it added up to 140.663 PEVA for his White Sox playing days.

6. Mark Buehrle. Let's get current! Let's get loud! Let's trumpet the man who can pitch a no hitter and give the current White Sox team a chance to win almost every game he pitches. There are some in baseball today who dismiss Buehrle as one of the game's best, because not every game does he dominate. But he pitches innings and wins, pretty darn important stuff. In only 10 seasons, he has 135 wins and 139.037 PEVA. In an era of relief pitchers, that's pretty heady stuff, and if his career on Chicago's White Sox side last another five years or more, you could be looking at the #1 or #2 pitcher in their history. Okay, the ERA's a bit high, but that's a function of the DH and today for a large part, isn't it?

7. Eddie Cicotte. A bit of the antithesis to Buerhle in the fact that his career in White Sox land was short, under ten years, but his record great. He won 156 games and lost only 102. And his ERA can not be questioned at 2.25, although it certainly was affected by the dead ball era he played in for a good portion of his career. In the end, Eddie accumulated 122.749 PEVA Career points in a White Sox uniform, coming in at #7 in the countdown list.

Now, have you guessed who the Top Two are or their mates in the Top Twenty below those listed. Here's the remaining list of Top Two and Twenty players. Listed alphabetically, they are ... Dick Donovan, Richard Dotson, Alex Fernandez, Jon Garland, Joe Horlen, Ted Lyons, Jack McDowell, Gary Peters, Jim Scott, Frank Smith, Tommy Thomas, Ed Walsh, Doc White, Hoyt Wilhelm. For the full list, plus the Top Twenty batters, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Check sample pages at Google Books.

Best Players by Team (Red Sox, White Sox)
Week Two Countdown Sample

Read More @ Google Books

Buy Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book in paperback @ Amazon.com
or Ebook @ Baseballevaluation.com

Countdown to the Best Players by Team

We're going to start the clock. Over the next nine weeks, covering twelve franchises per week, we'll give you a taste of the best career players and best pitchers by all teams in history, highlighting one of the top twenty for each. Yes, this is only a taste. All teams have their top twenty or so listed in the Stat Geek Baseball, Best Ever Book, now on sale in ebook or at your favorite online store. We're trying to promote what the reviewers are saying is a great read, but, hey, we're new at this, and need you to see what we're talking about. Then if you like it, please check out the book. It will make a great Father's Day gift for a baseball dad, or a great summer read for the baseball fanatic of any age.

But let's get on with the countdown. Each week we'll focus on either batters or pitchers. In week one, today, it will start out with the batters of the top of the alphabet teams, including the long gone franchises like the Altoona Mountain City, plus today's Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, and Baltimore Orioles. So there's something there for the deep baseball historian and the historian of today as well. You can read the webpage of the sample for the first twelve teams at the page listed below, but right now we're going to focus on the bonus coverage of one team among that twelve, the Baltimore Orioles and their best batters in the long history of that franchise.

The Top Five
1. Cal Ripken. It will come as no surprise to most that the best player in franchise history played not long ago, and captured the city's hearts, and still does, like no other player in their history. Yes, Cal Ripken plied his craft on the left side of the infield for that longest consecutive games streak and put up numbers and class that has not been outclassed by any other batter, or pitcher for that matter, on the club. He would accumulate 320.188 PEVA Career Rating Points, make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and run the gauntlet of all the many qualities of what a baseball hero should be. He hit 431 Home Runs, knocked in 1695 RBIs, and collected 3,184 hits.

2. Eddie Murray. For thirteen seasons in Baltimore, Eddie came to the park and plate with remarkable consistency and a dogged determination to create runs. No, he didn't do it with the style and panache of Ripken, although the similarities in day to day production are really a lot closer in quality than one would think. And while his Oriole career was shorter than Ripken's 21 seasons, his per year production was not. He would average 18.435 PEVA rating points and total 239.660 PEVA for his Oriole playing days. All in all this added up to Cooperstown, 343 HR, 1224 RBI, and 2,080 hits through his final Baltimore year of 1996.

3. Brooks Robinson. Prior to that Ripken fellow coming along, you'd have to say that Brooks held the favor of Oriole fans as their best player ever. Much of that came from the spectacular plays Robinson made in the field; his hitting always took second fiddle to the backhand stab behind the bag and seed to first for that out highlights. But while his hitting played that second string, it still accumulated to some great stats; 268 HR, 1357 RBI, and 2,848 hits. Gold Gloves, Cooperstown induction, and 239.660 PEVA Career Ratings points for Baltimore to boot.

4. George Sisler. It's always hard to reach back to a career that ended in 1927 and compare them to more current compatriots. But it's really not that difficult to see why George Sisler rises to the rank of the 4th best position player in Baltimore Oriole franchise history. He batted 0.344 for his Oriole career, which spanned 12 seasons. And while the home runs hit were low by comparison, with 93, to the three listed above, those 2,295 hits were not. This added up to 175.399 PEVA Rating Points for his Maryland career.

5. Ken Singleton. He didn't play that long ago, but for many, becomes the forgotten man in the Oriole current legend. And that's not fair. Because for the ten years he played with a bird on his shoulder, he collected 159.850 PEVA Rating Points, while knocking out 182 HR, 766 RBI, and 1455 hits. Yes, he was a better Oriole than Boog Powell, at least by the numbers, and ranks as the 5th best batter in their history.

Go to the Week One countdown to see the rest of the Top Ten, and the Best Ever Book for the Top Twenty batters and pitchers in Baltimore Orioles (AL) history. And before you get there, see if you can rank the remainder of the Top Twenty in order. Listed alphabetically, they are ...
Brady Anderson, Paul Blair, Al Bumbry, Harland Clift, Baby Doll Jacobsen, Melvin Mora, Rafael Palmeiro, Boog Powell, Frank Robinson, Burt Shotton, Vern Stephens, George Stone, Jack Tobin, Bobby Wallace, and Ken Williams. Good luck!

Best Players by Team (Angels, Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles)
Week One Countdown Sample

Read More @ Google Books

Buy Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book in paperback @ Amazon.com
or Ebook @ Baseballevaluation.com

Ryan Howard: Was He Worth It?

Yes and No. Boy, now there's taking a stand for ya. But it really is a yes and no question. The contract Ryan Howard just signed for the 2012 to 2016 seasons, with a more than reasonable chance of having his option year picked up (it will only cost the Phillies $13 million more for one extra year), is where the market seems to be for MVP caliber talent. Just see the Joe Mauer deal, which was 8 years and $184 million dollars, or $23 million dollars per year. The Howard contract is essentially the same, including the option year, which makes it 6 years and $138 million, or $23 million dollars per year. We won't start discussing Albert Pujols here; he is in another class as a top of the Hall of Fame level player.

So how does Howard fare against the SPRO numbers? Where does the baseballevaluation.com Salary Projection system place him?

Actually, pretty darn close. While we have some issue with the length of contract (essentially one year shorter) and do think that the arbitrator got it wrong and pushed Howard's arbitration year numbers too high, we're still only slightly on the low end of this salary scale. We think Howard deserves a 5 year contract, starting in the 2012 season, at $103.398 million, or an average of $20.7 million per year.

So now we get into the no territory.

We have no problem with his age or the fact that in the last years, the value of his performance may not keep pace with the contract dollars. That's the way of the MLB contract wars. We do, however, think, that the scale of dollars, which for Howard escalates from $20 million in 2012 and 2013 to $25 million in each of the last three years with a guaranteed buyout for $10 million if his 2017 option is not picked up, starts a bit too high. But perhaps we should be rethinking that as well. It is what it is, as they say.

But it does beg the question about why a stellar MVP level performer is worth $6.5 million more than a player, say a Jason Bay, who got 4 years and $66 million, with an option year for $17 million (average of $16.5 million guaranteed). It begs the question whether someone with a slightly lower pedigree, if he had played with perennial All-Star level talent above him in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, would get if circumstances were different. BTW, the SPRO numbers for Bay were for 6 years and $99 million (average $16.5 million).

But I guess we'll never know, although Bay is doing pretty well in his current circumstance now with pretty good players above him and did the same last year in Boston.

So the answer is still yes and no. Yes, Ryan Howard was paid an appropriate level considering the salary scale in Major League Baseball today, although we think it should have been a little lower. But all in all, as Phillies fans, we're really glad the Phillies took the new bull by the horns and paid him. Now I wonder if we have any money left over for Jason Werth. Oh, well, that's a discussion for another day.

Note: The length of Howard's SPRO contract is inclusive of his two remaining contract years, i.e. would have been 7 years in length.

The Mauer Mandate

It's almost as if he were channeling the President when the spectacular catcher of the Minnesota Twins, with one year to go before free agency, hit the motherlode of catcher contracts with a $184 million 8 year extension beginning in 2011. Add that to the $12.5 million he is due this year, that makes $196.5 million over 9 years for an average salary of $21.83 million. And if anyone is worth it, outside the Alex Rodriguez arena, Mauer might just be that man. A catcher with emerging power and a high average bat, the 2009 MVP was only 26 years old when 2010 began, and should provide a stable Hall of Fame level bat for the Twins for the next decade.

But just why did Minnesota break the bank for Mauer at the level they did? And is there no prohibition of salaries in the entertainment business (not only sports but music and tv/movie as well) in an era when many Minnesotans are losing their jobs or homes?

Mauer is a special case for the Twins, the hometown hero chosen as the first pick in the draft over other higher profile players, who turned around and made that pick look like gold. His contract was running out at a time when the Twins are ready to contend for years, and this is the year they are moving into newly minted Target Field with higher dollars to spend because of the new park. So suddenly, they were thinking in Yankee dollars? Well, it seems that might be the case.

Outside of the contract given in the last decade to Alex Rodriguez and Roger Clemens, most contracts for high caliber players begin in the range of $18 million per year, however, there seems to be the special case of two each year that pushes that number to start around $22 million. Think Santana, Sabathia, Teixiera, and now Mauer. Now Rodriguez and Clemens were above those numbers, actually above $25 million per year for both, so are we actually seeing a retrenching of that figure back a couple million dollars or an extension of the $18 million per year player forward. Both Rodriguez and Clemens had accomplished more in their career than that foursome. They were either Hall of Fame or nearly Hall of Fame worthy at the time of their contracts, especially in Clemens' case. That's not where Santana, Sabathia, Teixeira, or Mauer are today. They will need the years within the large contract to be Hall of Fame worthy to make it to Cooperstown down the line.

We have the tendency to question whether players at this level are worth an almost doubling of the slightly lesser player who might make it to the All-Star game level. Is Mauer worth 50% more than Chase Utley? Is he 50% better as a player or helpful to his team winning? We have our doubts. But it's not like we think, or the PEVA or SPRO projection system denotes, a salary that is not expensive. For us, Mauer is worth $140 million over the next 7 years, including 2010, only slightly lower on average than the $21.83 million of his current contract and the extension. So it's really just a quibble on the reasons of why and whether it makes sense from an overall payroll sense. For a team like the Yankees, it really doesn't matter. They can afford the next $15 million player just as well as that last $22 million one. But for a team like the Twins, even in the rarified air of a Target Field, that won't necessarily be the case. Or maybe the landscape is changing so much, that Minnesota is the new Bronx. Doubtful, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The Best Ever Book

Yeh, we know, it's the cause of a lot of debate around water coolers, or wine coolers, maybe even a water bottle or two, and especially around a ballpark. Who was the best player of all-time? What pitcher had the best season in franchise history? Can a reliever actually be considered better for their career than the best starting pitcher for your favorite squad? What about the postseason and the bests there? Well, worry no more. Get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, the first publication printed in both paperback and ebook from us here at baseballevaluation.com.

It's 271 pages of best ever lists, over 100 of them, plus explanations and a whole lot more. You can buy it an amazon.com, plus see a bit of the book with their Inside the Book feature. You can get it at your local bookstore, or buy the ebook from us through our link on the Best Ever Book page.

Check us out. Buy the book. There are career best lists for every franchise in history, even the long gone ones.

Makes a great gift for that baseball fan in your life or yourself.

The Anatomy of a Pre Free Agent Contract

We get so carried away during the offseason Hot Stove talk about where the free agents of the year are going to land and how much money they will get, that sometimes we forget about those deals made by clubs to their players, locking them up long-term before they reach that status. And many times those deals are misunderstood. Misunderstood because many in the public try to compare them to the deals made when a player reaches free agency, the time when maximum dollars have to be paid, because the leverage in the situation has now tipped over to the player's side. But that's not the case with a contract prior to free agency, and especially prior to being arbitration eligible. That's not the case at all.

Free agency starts when a player reaches 6 years of Major League Service Time. Major League Service time is calculated as the number of days in a season when the player is considered on the major league roster, including time spent on the disabled list. If a player has 172 days of service time in a year, it is considered a full year. The arbitration clock begins for all players when they reach 3 years of Major League Service Time, plus the top 1/6 of players, with the most MLST, who have reached 2 years of Major League Service Time. But enough for definitions (there are caveats in the Super Two category, also, but we won't get into that).

Let's take one example of a pre-free agency contract. Let's look at the recent six year deal given to Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Justin Upton is a 2.060 MLST player, therefore in the last year of his pre-arbitration time. Next season, 2011, he would be arbitration eligible. So when Arizona recently signed him to a 6 year contract for $51.5 million, they were buying out one year of pre-arbitration, three years of arbitration eligible service, and two years of free agency.

How did that break down?
2010 - $1.25 million signing bonus; $500,000 salary.
2011 - $4.25 million.
2012 - $6.75 million.
2013 - $9.75 million.
2014 - $14.25 million.
2015 - $14.50 million.

Now, what Arizona is really doing, is taking a large gamble. Upton has a lot of ability, but has yet to max that ability out. His 2009 season was great, and at only 22 years of age, batting 0.300 with 26 HR and 86 RBI. However, it was his first very good season. There are a ton of baseball players in the history of the game who've had one very good season, but never continued to progress in the way this contract suggests.

But did Arizona overpay? Should they have waited another year or two to extend him that far out?

The answer is yes.

Justin Upton deserved a multi-year deal, in our opinion, using the baseballevaluation decision model SPRO salary projection, but only one that bought out a couple years of arbitration, not extending into the free agency period yet.

SPRO
2010 - $459,000
2011 - $2.096 million
2012 - $2.892 million

But aren't the SPRO numbers too low?

Perhaps. We are not projecting his stats forward, but going on what he has already done. With a 2009 PEVA of slightly over 9 at 9.035, Upton has not yet broken into the top echelon of players. Yes, he has that potential. And 2010 might be the year that potential is realized. Just hasn't been yet. And we hope it does, not only for the sake of those fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but for the pocketbook of those who extended him that far in the future. Remember, for Upton to warrant the free agent numbers they extended him to, he has to become not only a perennial All-Star, but a veritable superstar in the game. That might happen, but we still think, from a contract standpoint, that it was pushed too far and too soon. Only time will tell how it all works out.

Worst Idea in the World

Just when you thought Bud Selig couldn't come up with a worst idea than having a tie in the All-Star game or allowing steroids to take over his sport for more than a decade, he's willing to reduce the best baseball league on the planet to just another league compared to Japanese baseball? Com'n now, Bud. Buy a clue. Get a vowel. In case you haven't heard, Bud Selig is in negotiations, or discussions, to have the Major League Baseball World Series champion play the champion of Japan Baseball in the real Global World Series, and he's planning to do it soon.

I don't know, but when I saw the blurb skitter across the wire, I had to gasp. I mean, geez, it's bad enough he's trotting out the oblivious World Baseball Classic, perhaps an okay, but inconsequential idea held when most of our players are just rounding into baseball shape prior to, or during, spring training. I know, I know, other countries really love this. Who gives a darn about them? We, the baseball playing United States of America has the two leagues people around the world are hankering to play for. You don't see the Daisuke's of the USA running off to Japan to get the ultimate baseball experience. That's what we send a 0.216 hitter like Edgar Gonzalez to do so he can find a job.

Stop the madness! Kibash this notion before it gets any footing. I don't care about Japan baseball. I do care about reducing our World Series, the championship of the American vs. National League to just another round in an unending series of playoff baseball. Stop the madness before it's too late.