The Mauer Mandate

It's almost as if he were channeling the President when the spectacular catcher of the Minnesota Twins, with one year to go before free agency, hit the motherlode of catcher contracts with a $184 million 8 year extension beginning in 2011. Add that to the $12.5 million he is due this year, that makes $196.5 million over 9 years for an average salary of $21.83 million. And if anyone is worth it, outside the Alex Rodriguez arena, Mauer might just be that man. A catcher with emerging power and a high average bat, the 2009 MVP was only 26 years old when 2010 began, and should provide a stable Hall of Fame level bat for the Twins for the next decade.

But just why did Minnesota break the bank for Mauer at the level they did? And is there no prohibition of salaries in the entertainment business (not only sports but music and tv/movie as well) in an era when many Minnesotans are losing their jobs or homes?

Mauer is a special case for the Twins, the hometown hero chosen as the first pick in the draft over other higher profile players, who turned around and made that pick look like gold. His contract was running out at a time when the Twins are ready to contend for years, and this is the year they are moving into newly minted Target Field with higher dollars to spend because of the new park. So suddenly, they were thinking in Yankee dollars? Well, it seems that might be the case.

Outside of the contract given in the last decade to Alex Rodriguez and Roger Clemens, most contracts for high caliber players begin in the range of $18 million per year, however, there seems to be the special case of two each year that pushes that number to start around $22 million. Think Santana, Sabathia, Teixiera, and now Mauer. Now Rodriguez and Clemens were above those numbers, actually above $25 million per year for both, so are we actually seeing a retrenching of that figure back a couple million dollars or an extension of the $18 million per year player forward. Both Rodriguez and Clemens had accomplished more in their career than that foursome. They were either Hall of Fame or nearly Hall of Fame worthy at the time of their contracts, especially in Clemens' case. That's not where Santana, Sabathia, Teixeira, or Mauer are today. They will need the years within the large contract to be Hall of Fame worthy to make it to Cooperstown down the line.

We have the tendency to question whether players at this level are worth an almost doubling of the slightly lesser player who might make it to the All-Star game level. Is Mauer worth 50% more than Chase Utley? Is he 50% better as a player or helpful to his team winning? We have our doubts. But it's not like we think, or the PEVA or SPRO projection system denotes, a salary that is not expensive. For us, Mauer is worth $140 million over the next 7 years, including 2010, only slightly lower on average than the $21.83 million of his current contract and the extension. So it's really just a quibble on the reasons of why and whether it makes sense from an overall payroll sense. For a team like the Yankees, it really doesn't matter. They can afford the next $15 million player just as well as that last $22 million one. But for a team like the Twins, even in the rarified air of a Target Field, that won't necessarily be the case. Or maybe the landscape is changing so much, that Minnesota is the new Bronx. Doubtful, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

The Best Ever Book

Yeh, we know, it's the cause of a lot of debate around water coolers, or wine coolers, maybe even a water bottle or two, and especially around a ballpark. Who was the best player of all-time? What pitcher had the best season in franchise history? Can a reliever actually be considered better for their career than the best starting pitcher for your favorite squad? What about the postseason and the bests there? Well, worry no more. Get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, the first publication printed in both paperback and ebook from us here at baseballevaluation.com.

It's 271 pages of best ever lists, over 100 of them, plus explanations and a whole lot more. You can buy it an amazon.com, plus see a bit of the book with their Inside the Book feature. You can get it at your local bookstore, or buy the ebook from us through our link on the Best Ever Book page.

Check us out. Buy the book. There are career best lists for every franchise in history, even the long gone ones.

Makes a great gift for that baseball fan in your life or yourself.

The Anatomy of a Pre Free Agent Contract

We get so carried away during the offseason Hot Stove talk about where the free agents of the year are going to land and how much money they will get, that sometimes we forget about those deals made by clubs to their players, locking them up long-term before they reach that status. And many times those deals are misunderstood. Misunderstood because many in the public try to compare them to the deals made when a player reaches free agency, the time when maximum dollars have to be paid, because the leverage in the situation has now tipped over to the player's side. But that's not the case with a contract prior to free agency, and especially prior to being arbitration eligible. That's not the case at all.

Free agency starts when a player reaches 6 years of Major League Service Time. Major League Service time is calculated as the number of days in a season when the player is considered on the major league roster, including time spent on the disabled list. If a player has 172 days of service time in a year, it is considered a full year. The arbitration clock begins for all players when they reach 3 years of Major League Service Time, plus the top 1/6 of players, with the most MLST, who have reached 2 years of Major League Service Time. But enough for definitions (there are caveats in the Super Two category, also, but we won't get into that).

Let's take one example of a pre-free agency contract. Let's look at the recent six year deal given to Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Justin Upton is a 2.060 MLST player, therefore in the last year of his pre-arbitration time. Next season, 2011, he would be arbitration eligible. So when Arizona recently signed him to a 6 year contract for $51.5 million, they were buying out one year of pre-arbitration, three years of arbitration eligible service, and two years of free agency.

How did that break down?
2010 - $1.25 million signing bonus; $500,000 salary.
2011 - $4.25 million.
2012 - $6.75 million.
2013 - $9.75 million.
2014 - $14.25 million.
2015 - $14.50 million.

Now, what Arizona is really doing, is taking a large gamble. Upton has a lot of ability, but has yet to max that ability out. His 2009 season was great, and at only 22 years of age, batting 0.300 with 26 HR and 86 RBI. However, it was his first very good season. There are a ton of baseball players in the history of the game who've had one very good season, but never continued to progress in the way this contract suggests.

But did Arizona overpay? Should they have waited another year or two to extend him that far out?

The answer is yes.

Justin Upton deserved a multi-year deal, in our opinion, using the baseballevaluation decision model SPRO salary projection, but only one that bought out a couple years of arbitration, not extending into the free agency period yet.

SPRO
2010 - $459,000
2011 - $2.096 million
2012 - $2.892 million

But aren't the SPRO numbers too low?

Perhaps. We are not projecting his stats forward, but going on what he has already done. With a 2009 PEVA of slightly over 9 at 9.035, Upton has not yet broken into the top echelon of players. Yes, he has that potential. And 2010 might be the year that potential is realized. Just hasn't been yet. And we hope it does, not only for the sake of those fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but for the pocketbook of those who extended him that far in the future. Remember, for Upton to warrant the free agent numbers they extended him to, he has to become not only a perennial All-Star, but a veritable superstar in the game. That might happen, but we still think, from a contract standpoint, that it was pushed too far and too soon. Only time will tell how it all works out.

Worst Idea in the World

Just when you thought Bud Selig couldn't come up with a worst idea than having a tie in the All-Star game or allowing steroids to take over his sport for more than a decade, he's willing to reduce the best baseball league on the planet to just another league compared to Japanese baseball? Com'n now, Bud. Buy a clue. Get a vowel. In case you haven't heard, Bud Selig is in negotiations, or discussions, to have the Major League Baseball World Series champion play the champion of Japan Baseball in the real Global World Series, and he's planning to do it soon.

I don't know, but when I saw the blurb skitter across the wire, I had to gasp. I mean, geez, it's bad enough he's trotting out the oblivious World Baseball Classic, perhaps an okay, but inconsequential idea held when most of our players are just rounding into baseball shape prior to, or during, spring training. I know, I know, other countries really love this. Who gives a darn about them? We, the baseball playing United States of America has the two leagues people around the world are hankering to play for. You don't see the Daisuke's of the USA running off to Japan to get the ultimate baseball experience. That's what we send a 0.216 hitter like Edgar Gonzalez to do so he can find a job.

Stop the madness! Kibash this notion before it gets any footing. I don't care about Japan baseball. I do care about reducing our World Series, the championship of the American vs. National League to just another round in an unending series of playoff baseball. Stop the madness before it's too late.

Hall of Fame Candidates 2010

Hard to believe that time of year is coming soon when we discuss and rate our favorites to end up in Cooperstown, but it's coming very soon. In fact, by the end of the first week in January, we'll all know whether holdovers Dawson and Blylevin made the grade and whether first-timers McGriff and Larkin will make a dent in the voting.

For all those that like to look at numbers, check out of Rating the Hall of Fame Candidates 2010 page. There's a whole lot there to shake through, including PEVA Career Totals for the Regular Season, Postseason, PEVA-EQ stats, and where they'd stand among Hall of Famers already in if they make it, too.

But for now, we'll just ramble on and on about how we think about such things, and elaborate a bit as well.

First off, we're very stingy about who we think should make the Hall of Fame. It's a special place where only the best of the best should reside. Now, there are many already there who you could argue against inclusion, so it's probably not quite as exclusive a club as we'd like, but ... as they say, it is what it is. And it's great!

For Stat Geek Baseball and the baseballevaluation PEVA system, it's pretty apparent who should definitely get in. All players who have garnered 275.000 PEVA Ratings Points (PEVA-B or PEVA-T) or 285.000 including the postseason during their career, and eligible for the Hall, are in. So if any players on the current ballot has reached that Total, it's a no brainer. But nobody has. Now it gets tricky. When you get to a 200 PEVA level, about 75% get in, but you better be above 210 to have the best shot. There are 124 in that category (on the All Inclusive List) and 75 are in, and 16 not yet eligible.

But what about those 25% who are on the outside looking in, why are some included and some not. Well, for starters, many who are on the outside have lower PEVA per EQ year averages. This is the average PEVA value for a full season per the player's career. But there are some who have similar values and have not made it, while others have.

That's just the way the game is played. But for us this year, it comes down to the case of "are any of the players deserving" and "how many of the marginal to good candidates" should make it. We're of the opinion that every year should have at least one HOF inductee, with the perfect year 2, and the maximum three. For us, this is one year when we'd only choose 1.

Bert Blylevin has been toiling in this HOF voting for 14 years, and if he doesn't make it in 2010, he has only one more year on the writer's ballot to make it. He's getting punished for playing on bad teams that lost games, even though he did his darndest to prevent it. Bert won 287 games in his career with a 3.31 ERA. His Total PEVA score of 274.610 ranks #69 All-Time among all players and pitchers. Yes, his PEVA Per EQ average year is lower than we'd like at 13.075 when he should be around 15.000 and if there were other better options, we'd choose them. But this year, there just aren't, and it's time to elect Bert to the Hall of Fame.

For us, not too many others even deserve a mention. We'll get one out of the way before going any further. If Mark McGwire had not used or been involved in the PED allegation scandal, he'd be a lock to be in the Hall. But for us, we think his use added enough to his stats that without them, he'd be below the threshold for election. We're not saying that we'd never vote for anybody involved in this scandal; we're using the "if they hadn't used PEDs, would they still have made it" logic. We don't think Mark would have; Sammy and Rafael, too when they're on the ballot in the future.

Okay, so who are the other possible players we have considered. There are three that top our list, but fall just short of deserving inclusion. One holdover, Dale Murphy, and two newcomers, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff. For some reason, voters don't like Dale, preferring to toss votes more toward Andre Dawson or Tim Raines or Dave Parker last year. And he is similar to those players, but we think better. Murphy had 228.963 Total PEVA points in his career after hitting 398 HR, 1266 RBI, with a 0.265 AVE. Those numbers aren't quite good enough for us, but one number is, a 15.767 PEVA EQ. But for this year, our nod goes to Bert and leaves Dale behind. It's unlikely Murphy ever makes the Hall, and he may be just under our radar every year, too, in the future. But of the rest of the holdovers, we like Dale better than the rest.

McGriff and Martinez are interesting candidates to us. You could make the same case for Edgar that we just made for Murphy, Martinez with 227.901 Total PEVA Points and a 15.130 PEVA EQ. He had a higher AVE than Murphy, but was a DH most of his career, which will likely be counted against him. McGriff played on a ton of good teams and put up HR and RBI numbers that almost gets him to automatic inclusion (well at least past automatic inclusion), 493 HR and 1550 RBI. But his PEVA numbers were lower than those numbers suggest at 229.985, because he played on those teams and the PEVA EQ score of 13.319 does not quite cut it for us. (PEVA separates production with rate stats like OBP and SLG to segment some of the production that was dependent on teammates). We won't be surprised if McGriff actually makes the Hall someday, and that would be okay. But he'd be just on the outside looking in for us.

Well, that's about it for now, with the possible exception of not understanding why Lee Smith is thought so highly of, but that might be out penchant to undervalue the relief pitcher compared to the starter. Geez, just like we undervalue the pinch hitter versus the every day player. But that's a debate for another day.

All the best guys from Stat Geek Baseball.

Measuring the Halladay Deal

Okay, we'll get this right off our chest. We don't like the deal. Not that we don't think it could help the Phillies win a pennant or another World Series during the next two to four years, but because we just like prospects. As Phils fans, we enjoy watching the young guys develop into studs and rooting for our players from the minors to the pros. But are we wrong in that from a statistical standpoint? Is it stupid to hold onto such ideals? Should we be afraid that we'll be watching several years of great baseball, but followed by a mediocre team when the Halladays and his new teammates Rollins, Utley, and Howard age without the two talented minor league studs Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek to help them?

Well here goes our analysis and it's gonna have a lot of conjecture in it to be sure.

Roy Halladay has been a three year PEVA RAVE average of 28.961 and a career PEVA per EQ year of 21.942. He'll be pitching those four years at 33-36 years of age. So we're going to assume some diminution is his performance, and for arguments sake, attribute his career average, not recent PEVA average, to those years.

21.942 x 4 = 87.768 PEVA.

For those not versed in PEVA, 21.942 per year is great, perhaps not Cy Young worthy, but definitely All-League.

But what about those young studs, the outfielder Taylor and the pitcher Drabek. What can we expect over their first 6 years of service before they hit Free Agency? Let's assume Michael Taylor can be Jason Werth ... and Kyle Drabek can mirror Zack Greinke. I know, a large assumption.

Werth, who started out slow in his career, had 21.823 total PEVA points in his first 6 seasons; Greinke for his first 6 seasons had 70.006 total PEVA rating points, including his stellar 2009 year.

That would mean that over 6 years, they would be worth 91.829 PEVA compared to 87.768 PEVA for Halladay. Yes, Halladay's numbers don't include the 4th option year on his new contract, or 6 seasons per the prospects, but they are a guaranteed club player prior to free agency while Halladay may not be.

But overall, you can see, that if the ifs come through, and you have Taylor/Drabek becoming some combination of Werth/Greinke, it's fairly even.

But here's where we have a problem with it. Halladay was only signed for one year prior to agreeing to Philadelphia's extension, and his value in Toronto was one year only. Combine that with the fact that Taylor/Drabek would cost you significantly less than the $75,000,000 that is due Halladay over the next four years, and that that savings could have been applied to other free agent players, and you can see how muddy the waters can be.

I wouldn't have done the trade; I like prospects. I even like contending for the playoffs better than winning a World Series then struggling afterwards. Yes, I wouldn't be a good Marlins fan. But this trade was a much larger gamble than most in the media seem to think, and it will be fascinating to see how it works out. I still think it will work out in the short term, but if Taylor/Drabek become perennial All-Stars, I'd likely choose that course, plus kept Cliff Lee for one year and two prospects ahead. But that's another story altogether.

On Their Way Up

Up. Up. Up. Up the best ever lists for their respective franchises that is. 2009 saw a number of great performances by players like Pujols, Greinke, Prince Fielder, and others. But were they enough to crack the Top 20 Best Ever Years for the Cardinals, the Royals, or the Brewers. Were they the best ever, #1, for those franchises. We've just calculated the best ever lists for every franchise in baseball history and the new rankings are out.

Check them all @ Best Seasons Ever by Team index page.

But let's give you a preview of the new additions on that list.

1. Arizona Diamondbacks. Sure they're a relatively new franchise, making it a whole lot easier for a player to crack the best ever Top 20 season list. And this year, they got two players who made their case. Dan Haren jumped into the #11 spot in the pitching list with his 14-10 3.14 ERA season while Mark Reynolds now holds the same spot in the batting Top 20 for thsoe 44 HR, 102 RBI season.

2. Colorado Rockies. Now here's a new squad just looking for Top 20 Seasons, especially on the pitching side. And they've got a new #1. Ubaldo Jimenez and his 20.035 PEVA Rating now tops the pile or humidor hurlers in the rarified air of Colorado. And he had company, too. Jason Marquis joins at #3. Jorge de la Rosa at #11. And Huston Street at #14. We get the feeling that Mr. Tulowitski won't be satisfied with having the #9 spot on this list in years to come, but for now his 32 HR, 92 RBI, 0.297 AVE and stellar defensive season in 2009 will have to do. He had company in Todd Helton, too, who jumped into the #20 spot. That's the 8th time Helton appears on the list.

3. Detroit Tigers. Now it's not nearly as easy to jump into the list of Top 20 Pitchers for a club that's been in the American League since the early days, but that's just what Justin Verlander has done. Joining the likes of Hal Newhouser, Dizzy Trout, and Denny McLain, Verlander now occupies the #8 spot with his 2009 season of 19 wins and a 27.965 PEVA rating.

4. Florida Marlins. Okay. Another newbie. And another high ranking in the #4 spot of Josh Johnson. Hanley Ramirez. What more can you say. And if he stays a Marlin for much longer (and that's always in doubt with this franchise), he'll likely have more seasons on the list. For now, the 2009 year jumped him to the #4 spot.

5. Kansas City Royals. Yes, this is the spot for a Greinke siting and it's not too surprising that the Cy Young season of Mr. Zack has him landing in the #2 spot in Royals history behind the 1989 season of Bret Saberhagan. When you just hurled yourself in the #50 spot All-Time, that's pretty special, and his 16-8 record and 2.16 ERA garnered him the coveted runerup spot in KC pitching lore.

6. Milwaukee Brewers. It's not too easy for a relief pitcher to enter into the hallowed halls of a franchise's Top 20 list, but Trevor Hoffman has been doing that for years in a San Diego Padres uniform, and even at 42 years of age (end of season) he's not done yet for the Brewers. His 2009 season warrants a #17 spot. But the batters did a whole lot better than that with Prince Fielder coming in at #2. That's what you get with 46 HR, 141 RBI, and a 34.062 PEVA rating. Not far behind at #5 was Ryan Braun as well.

7. Minnesota Twins. We might be looking at one of the best hitting catchers to ever play the game and in 2009, Joe Mauer took his MVP award and 0.365 batting average to the #3 spot on their list, behind only Ed Delahanty in 1902 and Harmon Killebrew in 1969.

8. New York Yankees. Although it's a lot easier to join their Top 20 pitching list than the batting one (Babe has a lock on a lot of those spots), to pitch your way into the storied franchise best ever seasons countdown is no small feet. And nobody ever said that C.C. Sabathia was small. Count him big at #17 on the Yankee list, joining Guidry, Hunter, Ford, plus Spud Chandler and Jack Chesbro, too.

9. Seattle Mariners. I think most people, particularly on the East Coast, are unaware of the spectacular season that Felix Hernandez had. And at the age of 23, he joined the Mariners best ever list at #2 with his 19-5 2.49 ERA campaign. He almost took the top spot, too, just fractions of a point behind Randy Johnson and his 1995 season. And he may not be done climbing this list yet.

10. San Diego Padres. Another one of those guys whose name keeps coming up in trade, but there's really no good reason to get rid of the wonder named Adrian Gonzalez. While playing in a park better know for wide open spaces, Gonzalez in 2009 had the #2 hitting season in Padre history.

11. San Francisco Giants. There's a lot of names on this list that spark historic memories, from Carl Hubbell to Christy Mathewson to Juan Marichal, but after only two full seasons, Mr. Lincecum now has two spots in the top twenty, coming in at #7 this year.

12. St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter #8. Wainwright #18. Right in there with Gibson and Dean. Pretty good company, don't you think. One of the best players in baseball history period through his 29th birthday, Albert Pujols now stands at #2 for his 2009 year in Cardinal history, with only the great Rogers Hornsby in 1922 standing in his way to the top. Albert already occupies 5 spots in the Top 20.

12. Tampa Bay Rays. This is the easiest list to crack, but the Rays of today are doing just that. James Shields in 2009 at #5 on the pitching list. Evan Longoria at #2, Ben Zobrist at #3, Carl Crawford at #11, Carlos Pena at #14, and Jason Bartlett at #16 on the hitting side.

13. Toronto Blue Jays. They tried to get rid of him most of the summer, but he refused to stop pitching his way into their record books. Roy Halladay took his 2009 season all the way to #6 on their All-Time Pitching Season list and now occupies 5 spots in the Top 20. Adam Lind is one of those players most baseball fans couldn't name, but should be near the top of most fantasy baseball lists in 2010. His 2009 season became the #15 best season in Blue Jay history and he can thank those 35 HR and 114 RBI and 0.305 AVE for most of that 18.508 PEVA rating that helped his join.

14. Washington Nationals. Becoming only the 2nd player to join the Top 20 since moving from Montreal, Ryan Zimmerman cracked the list at #15.

That's it, folks, but it sure was a fun ride. Now check out the other teams and seem where your favorites from the near or far past rank in their team's best ever lists in history.