To Sign Long Term or Not to Sign Long Term,

January 20, 2009 - To sign or not to sign, that is always the question. To know when to sign long term is an even bigger dilemma for baseball players and general managers. As arbitration eligible players mull this question through exchange day next week, we've been seeing many of the players in this category make this decision, of course, not by themselves, but with a cadre of agents, wives, psychics, and baseball execs. Oh, and don't discount the wives or the psychics. This isn't exact science or outside the realm of "take the money now, what if you get hurt" whispers in ears during bedtime conversations.

Let's take the case of Cole Hamels, for one instance. A stellar talent, who at 24 years of age, had a regular season much better than some experts were stating, mostly due to a lower win total, 14, than he should have gotten, if not for the fault of a very good Phils bullpen who seemed to only hiccup when pitching after Cole. And when Hamels was determined eleigible for Super Two Arbitration Eligible status, the game of sign long term or not sign long term was in the minds of all involved. As you recall, Hamels followed up that regular season with one of the best postseason pitching performances in history. In fact, #11, (see Best Postseason Pitching Years) pitching 35 innings to a 1.80 ERA and four wins. But he's a bit of a dilemma beyond the performance, mostly due to an injury history, particularly in high school and the minor leagues, but a confidence and savvy on the mound that at one time had minor league scouts stating something along the lines of he'll either never make the major leagues (due to injury) or be Sandy Koufax once he gets there. Well, last year, he was better than Sandy ever was at 24 years of age.

But now, how do you value that, and how long do you value it for. If Cole Hamels were to sign a full length long term contract at this time, he is worth, in SPRO terms, a 6 year, $81,515,000 contract, paying him for the four years of arbitration that Hamels would be eligible for and two years of free agency. But there were other options; the Phils and Hamels could have gone the Ryan Howard route, and trotted into the arbitration table and taken the chance on the arbitrator's decision. But that is a gamble either way; in fact, perhaps more so for the player who could be leaving lots of dough on the table if his next year is marred by poor performance or injury. Or they could choose the compromise route, which is where this ended, at a contract for 3 years and $20,500,000, leaving Hamels still eligible for one year of arbitration after the contract ends, and allowing both sides to negotiate the longer contract then. Will that be the best option in the end? Nobody really knows. But it is likely better than option two, the arbitration table, especially with that wife urging bedtime stories that might include "take the money now, stupid, what if you get hurt."