Ryan Howard and Salary Arbitration

January 28, 2009 - We're going to go out on a limb here, ... Ryan Howard is not going to win his arbitration case this year. He's just not. Why not? You thought the same thing last year and he walked away with a record first year arbitration player figure of $10,000,000. Well, here's why not? Even at that figure last year, the SPRO model would forward a free agent salary (the salary if Howard were a free agent in 2008, to $22,222,000). That is within the parameters of a high value contract, within the salary structure of Major League Baseball. If Ryan Howard were to win $18,000,000 in his second year of arbitration, Howard would be setting a precedent that baseball could not sustain. His SPRO projection, if he were a free agent player in 2009, would be $30,000,000. But Ryan Howard is not a $30 million per year player. Ony one player even approaches that figure in today's reality, one Alex Rodriguez, (and that was prior to the economic downtown, even if one existed for a Yankee) he of the Hall of Fame career and a Gold Glove pedigree. And while Ryan Howard is a great player, with one fantastic season behind him, and two other pretty darn good ones, he is 29 years old and nowhere near the Hall of Fame at this point. Not that he won't get there, but we would be jumping pretty far down the path to state that now.

I know it sounds as if we're being unduly critical of Howard, but we're not. As a power hitting first baseman in his first four seasons, his counting stat power numbers are fantastic, but they greatly outpace his OBP and SLG numbers. What does that mean? Well, it means that some of his counting stat numbers are due to the two fantastic, League MVP caliber players who bat in front of him, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. How many RBI would Howard get if he played for Kansas City? Well, you say, that isn't truly fair, didn't Babe Ruth have a few good players around him, too, and isn't that true for Albert Pujols. For sure. But with the Babe or Al, not only were his counting stats through the roof, but his OBP and SLG not only keeps pace, but supercedes those counting numbers. And we won't even get into the fielding problems, which are certainly there, because for a player as productive as Ryan, Al, or the Babe, nobody really cares or values them on that capability.

Howard's arbitration win last year has forced the issue of increased arbitration values, and the Phils, perhaps with a lot of foresight that should be credited to new GM Ruben Amaro, have submitted an arbitration number of $14 million. That number will force the arbitrator to side with them. In fact, that number is even a bit out of line from past arbitration values. Howard is worth about $11 million right now as a 2nd year arbitration player, using past data, and would be worth a large contract according to SPRO if he were to sign long term, somewhere in the range of 7 years and $123 million. Remember, there are three arbitration years in that figure plus four years of free agency, so take that into account when you compare it to the Teixeira contract at $22.5 million per for pure free agent years.

Ryan Howard will not win his arbitration case this year, at least according to us. Now we'll have to see just whether we're right this year or not.

Ryan Howard
Name, Year, Team, Lg, HR, RBI, AVE., Age, PEVA

Howard Ryan 2004 PHI NL 2 5 0.282 25 0.200
Howard Ryan 2005 PHI NL 22 63 0.288 26 3.695
Howard Ryan 2006 PHI NL 58 149 0.313 27 35.507
Howard Ryan 2007 PHI NL 47 136 0.268 28 16.923
Howard Ryan 2008 PHI NL 48 146 0.251 29 19.227
Howard Ryan Total 177 499 0.279 75.552

* Age at end of year