Cy Young Winners and PEVA Rankings

Well, the first two of the big four postseason awards are in, and Zach Greinke and Tim Lincecum are the winners of the awards from the BBWAA. But how did we do, the PEVA Player Rating system, in predicting who was the best. Well, we're two for two. Greinke topped the 2009 PEVA ranking with a Player Rating of 41.843 with Lincecum coming in second at 36.774. But it's not just who topped our list, but the rankings below them that show it's value.

Cy Young Award Voting (AL) - Grienke, FHernandez, JVerlander, CC Sabathia, Halladay
Cy Young Award Voting (NL) - Lincecum, Carpenter, Wainwright, Vazquez, Haren.

PEVA Rankings (AL) - Grienke, FHernandez, Halladay, JVerlander, CC Sabathia
PEVA Rankings (NL) - Lincecum, Carpenter, Vazquez, Haren, Wainwright.

That's 10 for 10 with slight variations in their rankings. So we'll pat our back on that one and check back to see just how well we do in the race for the MVP. Check out the Top 40 pitchers and Top 40 positions players in the PEVA Player Ratings for 2009.

PEVA ratings are preliminary number pending final data and park factors.

Postseason Bests

Yes, it took awhile, but they're finally here. Postseason bests for each season and career of position players and batters. And during the month of July, we'll be pushing out the best of each decade every two to three days, starting with those boys of history, the pre-World Series days before 1900. (World Series began in 1903) Okay, so not the most compelling from a today point of view, but for those who know their baseball history, the men who started what we now know as Major League Baseball, deserve a whole lot of credit and more than a little light of day. Some of these folks should be in the Hall of Fame, but due to short regular seasons that hurt their counting stats, they're not. But hey, we can at least show just how great some of their postseasons were, even if they were sporadic, starting in 1884 and ending in 1892. So here goes, the Top Ten Postseason Batting/Position Player Year Prior to 1900. So here's to you Hugh Duffy, Cap Anson, and the rest.

Rank/Name, Team, Year, HR, RBI, AVE. - PEVA
1. Hugh Duffy, BSN, 1892, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0.462 AVE. - 60.186 PEVA
2. Barney Gilligan, PRO, 1884, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0.444 AVE. - 53.062 PEVA.
3. Tip O'Neill, SL4, 1886, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0.400 - 42.090 PEVA
4. Jimmy Wolf, LS2, 1890, 0, 8, 0.360 - 41.638
5. Cap Anson, CHN, 1885, 0, 0, 0.423 - 38.108
6. Jerry Denny, PRO, 1884, 1, 2, 0.444 - 38.006
7. King Kelly, CHN, 1885, 0, 0, 0.346 - 36.670
8. Paul Hines, PRO, 1884, 0, 1, 0.250 - 35.971
9. Mike Tiernan, NY1, 1888, 1, 6, 0.342 - 27.668
10. Sam Thompson, DTN, 1887, 2, 7, 0.342 - 27.668

PEVA listed above reflects Total Value. Postseason PEVA is 10% of that amount.

Coming Next - Best Postseason Batting 1950s

Pitching and the DEFENSIVE factor

Don't get too offended by this comment, because it's not meant to be derogatory to the entire pitching profession, but nobody really cares how well a pitcher fields his position when they're giving out contracts. That does not, however, mean that a pitcher does not have a DEFENSIVE component within his PEVA Pitching Rating Grade, it's just not the traditional kind. When we're talking about DEFENSIVE factors for a Pitcher Grade, it's not about Errors, Putouts, and Assists. It's about Strikeouts, Walks, and Home Runs Allowed.

Those are three stats in the pitcher's line where he has the most control, where he can defend the outcome, and where his defenders and team don't play much of a part. So in the pitcher venacular for PEVA DEFENSIVE components, it is an average of those two component factors (Strikeout to Walk Ratio and HR Allowed per 9 Innings Pitcher), along the same MAX/AVE/MIN scale, that counts.

But isn't that unfairly giving credit to a strikeout pitcher?

No. It gives credit to a pitcher who has control compared to how many he strikes out. One example, Greg Maddux. Most years Maddux would lead the league in SO/W Ratio despite not being a pure strikeout pitcher. (He did strikeout his fair share, BTW, even though his fastball didn't sit in the 90s)

Why should you give so much credit to a pitcher with a low HR/9IP ratio?

Look at Curt Schilling, he'd often give up solo homer or two, but that would be about it. That's true, but since Schilling often was near the top in SO/W ratio (thus being the reason they were only solo homers), his lower HR/9IP factor did not injure the overall PEVA Pitching Rating.

Does this or any other pitching factor play a moderating factor like Run Production does to a position player or even Field Value for that matter?

No. But it all works out in the wash. And that wash is how a pitcher, whether relief or starting, whether playing for a good team or a bad one, is valued when comparing his PEVA to contract terms. And that's where RAVE and EXPEQ comes in, ... but we won't bore you with those Explaining RAVE blog series right now. We'll clue you in on those at a later date. Pennant races are starting to heat up and the All-Star game is coming soon.

Field Value - The Most Controversial Component

Well, let's just get right into it. In this 5th installment of Explaining PEVA, we're going to try and tackle the questions surrounding Field Value, the DEFENSIVE component for Position Players, and how it works in context with the other five categories.

Is Field Value equal to the other components of the index (i.e. the 2 DURABILITY Factors and the three DEPENDENT and INDEPENDENT production factors discussued earlier) or does it have special value like that of Run Production?

Field Value is one of the six components and in its original incarnation counted the same as any of the other five factor components, however, it became apparent, perhaps one third of the way through the development process, that that would not be accurate. As most sabermetrics fans or proponents know, the position you play has an awful lot to do with your value, and should be weighted differently. But then another question popped into play.

Okay, so a 1st baseman with a gold glove year isn't nearly as valuable as a Shortstop with a gold glove, but what about a 1st Basemen who's pretty bad in the field, but nobody cares because of how valuable he is with the bat? How would the Field Value of that player be adjusted to reflect his true value to a team?

That's where the RPR (Run Production Factor) adjustment comes into play, raising the level of a poor fielder with exceptional production in the overall PEVA factor. While he actual Field Value will remain what it is, when calculating the overall PEVA Player Rating, it will be moderated according to the level of RPR.

Okay, I'm lost. How is the Field Value calculated in the first place, and which positions does the system value the most highly?

Field Value is calculated in the same manner as the other factors, placing a top factor for the player with the MAX value in a category and grading all players between that MAX, the AVERAGE, and the MIN. The MIN is not 0, but a MINIMUM grade we have determined as appropriate within the PEVA system. Unlike other categories, the MAX and AVE change with each position, and the final PEVA Field Value is calculated using the Field Value for each position a player plays and weighted to how many innings a player plays that position.

The system weights the MAX in this way: Catcher 2.10, Shortstop 1.75, Third Base/Outfield 1.70, Second Base 1.50, 1st Base 1.40. The value for a pitcher can be as high as 1.00, depending on the amount of Innings Pitched, but not his value in the field.

I understand why Catcher and Shortstop would be that high, but why is an Outfielder MAX higher than Second Base?

For an outfielder to reach the 1.70 figure, he would most likely have to be a Gold Glove level centerfielder. We don't really know why the Second Base figure calculated with such a low MAX, but suffice it to say, that is how Payroll values the position with a top level fielding 2nd baseman. And you know, just from a subjective point of view. 2nd base is the position many infielders default to in their careers, but it's unlikely that a poor fielder ends up in center field. He may end up in left, but not center.

But what are the components that make up those MAX/AVE/MIN factors for each position? Do you get into Range Factors and newer Zone Ratings, etc? We do use Range Factor due to its objective stats, and even though we think Zone Ratings and other such data is valuable, we have not included it in the calculation for two reasons; its subjectivity and the fact that such data does not have a long historic past for comparing older era players.

Field Value Component Factors (Position, Stat, Weight)

Catcher - IP/GP 25%, Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%,Caught Stealing % 25%

Infield - IP/GP 33%, Fielding PCT 33%, Range Factor 33%
Outfield - IP/GP 25%, Fielding PCT 25%, Range Factor 25%
Assists Per 9 IP (or Games Played) 25%

Note 1: Prior to 2000, using Games Played.
Note 2: For Catchers, the Caught Stealing Percentage used from 1960-2006. Prior to 1960, other factors reflect 33%.

So there you have it, an overview of the most controversial aspect in the PEVA factor universe. But while it is controversial, and requires that deviation away from a static max, it is important, and allows a light hitting shortstop with spectacular defensive abilities to warrant the salaries they earn while allowing that lunk hands 1st baseman with the RBI potential to warrant the multi-year $100 million dollar contract.

Explaining PEVA - #4 Independent Production

Just what is INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION in the terms of a baseball player? Well, it is those categories or stats that rely predominantly on the player's own abilities, and are less dependent on team fortunes. Baseball is one of the few sports, due to the unique nature of the pitcher versus batter dynamics that has categories of production that are nearly independent of their teammates, while still being in a team game. For a pitcher, we're using Earned Run Average and Walks Plus Hits Over 9 Innings, WHIP9. Yes, this is the traditional WHIP category extended to a value over 9 innings pitched. For a position player, we're using On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage.

The pitching categories are simple standard categories in the PEVA index, measuring their factor values from the relationship between the MAX/AVE/MIN for the season.

For the batting categories of OBP and SLG, it is not so simple, due to their relationship to the average and how some very special players (very few players reach this level in a decade) who rise above a multiple of the average. These players are given special factors above the normal scale when utilizing the OBP or SLG PEVA factor in the calculation of the overall PEVA Player Rating Grade. How special can a player be on that scale? Up to 50% higher than the max.

In a previous installment of Explaining PEVA, you said that OBP and SLG factors could also be modified by a stellar Run Production Factor, isn't that true? Absolutely. For players that produce runs, above and beyond the logic of their OBP or SLG factors, the factors for those categories are adjusted in the calculation to account for that ability. For example, Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins rarely gets on base for a leadoff hitter and really doesn't slug as high as most people think (with some exception for his MVP season of 2006), but he scores and produces runs. This nets him a contract above what most traditional believers in pure OPS think warranted, and while this is an extension of his DEPENDENT production stats and not his INDEPENDENT ones, it is how he has extra values. Now one could argue whether his value would be this high on a team without run producers such as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard batting behind him, but the point is moot when considering Payroll or even Player Rating values, although a player with his statistical profile will likely not be valued as high in an index such as PEVA as some would think, despite the adjustment given for Run Production.

So OBP and SLG factors become very important for the stellar player, especially ones such as Babe Ruth, or even Barry Bonds during those questionable years, when their OBP and SLG went off the scale compared to the average for the season. It is also important to all other players, including those with profiles such as Rollins or other run producers who benefit from good players around them.

Explaining PEVA - #3 W, SV, SV+W

Let's talk about those pitchers. Past the pitching durability stats (Games, Games Started, and Innings Pitched), two of the remaining four categories that go into the PEVA Player Rating index and Player Grades are pretty straightforward (ERA and WHIP9) in how they fit into the system. One, the dependent category of pitching wins, saves, and wins plus saves, is not that much harder to apply, although it is divided into those three sub-categories.

So when you say subcategories, do you mean to say that Wins is a subcategory worth 1/3 of the value, with Saves and Wins Plus Saves each worth the same?

Short answer would be no. These subcategories are independent of each other, and the pitcher receives a PEVA factor value based on the highest value of the three on the scale from MAX to AVE. to MIN. So if a pitcher has a higher factor of wins compared to the MAX/AVE/MIN, then he does for saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, or wins plus saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, then that's the factor he gets.

Why so complicated?

It's really not that complicated. A starting pitcher needs to be based on how he performs in the most important DEPENDENT category in the game for a starting pitcher, and that would be WINS. But a relief pitcher, particularly a closer whose value per payroll has risen in some true measure to the rise in SAVES, needs a DEPENDENT category that is important to his role. For the pitcher who is neither a true starter or true closer, i.e. spends the majority of the year in neither role, it is unfair to base his DEPENDENT category factor on either by themselves, therefore the use of WINS PLUS SAVES.

What does the term DEPENDENT category mean? It means that the total of wins or saves has as much to do with the team as it does the individual player. There is only one DEPENDENT Production category in use for pitchers (W/S/W+SV) as there is for batters (Run Production).

PEVA CATEGORIES
USE/DURABILITY - Games, Games Started, Innings Pitched (Pitching); Games, Plate Appearances (Batting)
DEPENDENT PRODUCTION - Wins/Saves/Wins Plus Saves (Pitching); Run Production (Batting)
INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION - ERA, Walks/Hits Per 9-WHIP9 (Pitching); On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage (Batting)
DEFENSIVE - HR per 9 IP/SO to W Ratio (Pitching); Field Factor (Position Players/Batters)

We'll discuss how they fit in in a later installment of Explaining PEVA.

Explaining PEVA - #2 Run Production

Thought it was about time we delved a bit further into the PEVA Major League Baseball Player's Rating system as the 2009 baseball season moves further and we begin to see player value in view again. Back in February, we discussed the girth of the system in our article on Ben Sheets (see Durability and Why the Baseball Evaluation System Values It So Much. The two factors that go into that girth provide 1/3 of the player's value, both for a pitcher or position player. This is true no matter the era or season the player played in, too.

But, oh, that's not very sexy. Girth. Isn't that something only sumo players and offensive lineman find attractive. That's a good point. But the point here is, the PEVA system may gain it's weight from those unsexy girth stats such as Games, Games Started, Plate Appearances, and Innings Pitched, but the alluring stats flesh out the system, and begin to tell us who the stars of the game truly are, not only for a season, but for their careers.

And the first one we'll discuss for Position Players and Batters is likely the most important of them all, ... Run Production. How do we define Run Production? Runs and Runs Batted In combined. No, this is not the Runs Created Stat that many use, where they delete Home Runs from the number so as not to count it twice. We count it twice, as a batter who can not only score that run, but knock it in is more valuable than the other player dependent on a Run Producer, too. There might be some disagreement on our take on this, but after those 5,000 hours of developing the system (and an initial thought to use Runs Created instead), Run Production became the first dependent production stat used in the PEVA index.

Like the value placed on the Durability Stats, the Run Production factor of a player is measured on a scale from the MAXIMUM for the year in question vs. the AVERAGE for the year in question. A player below the average is weighted down to a percentage of the value, based on the same scale. After calculation, this factor becomes one of the six multiples that will make up the PEVA Rating (Scaled between 0-64).

But is Run Production Only as Valuable as Innings Pitched or Plate Appearances, that doesn't seem right?

No, it isn't. Run Production is the Factor which plays a part in other factors as well, which will be discussed further in another Explaining PEVA installment. But for now, it affects the remaining three... Field Factor, On Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage. While all three of those categories have their own inherent factor, they are modified by Run Production if Run Production reaches a certain threshold and the factor for those categories fall below the Run Production factor.

So, for the position player, you can say that Run Production becomes the most important factor of the six categories, although for most players, it is only equal to the others. However, in special circumstances, depending on the type of player and their value to the team, it rises in importance to the PEVA index and to the way players have been paid.

Ryan Howard and Salary Arbitration

January 28, 2009 - We're going to go out on a limb here, ... Ryan Howard is not going to win his arbitration case this year. He's just not. Why not? You thought the same thing last year and he walked away with a record first year arbitration player figure of $10,000,000. Well, here's why not? Even at that figure last year, the SPRO model would forward a free agent salary (the salary if Howard were a free agent in 2008, to $22,222,000). That is within the parameters of a high value contract, within the salary structure of Major League Baseball. If Ryan Howard were to win $18,000,000 in his second year of arbitration, Howard would be setting a precedent that baseball could not sustain. His SPRO projection, if he were a free agent player in 2009, would be $30,000,000. But Ryan Howard is not a $30 million per year player. Ony one player even approaches that figure in today's reality, one Alex Rodriguez, (and that was prior to the economic downtown, even if one existed for a Yankee) he of the Hall of Fame career and a Gold Glove pedigree. And while Ryan Howard is a great player, with one fantastic season behind him, and two other pretty darn good ones, he is 29 years old and nowhere near the Hall of Fame at this point. Not that he won't get there, but we would be jumping pretty far down the path to state that now.

I know it sounds as if we're being unduly critical of Howard, but we're not. As a power hitting first baseman in his first four seasons, his counting stat power numbers are fantastic, but they greatly outpace his OBP and SLG numbers. What does that mean? Well, it means that some of his counting stat numbers are due to the two fantastic, League MVP caliber players who bat in front of him, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. How many RBI would Howard get if he played for Kansas City? Well, you say, that isn't truly fair, didn't Babe Ruth have a few good players around him, too, and isn't that true for Albert Pujols. For sure. But with the Babe or Al, not only were his counting stats through the roof, but his OBP and SLG not only keeps pace, but supercedes those counting numbers. And we won't even get into the fielding problems, which are certainly there, because for a player as productive as Ryan, Al, or the Babe, nobody really cares or values them on that capability.

Howard's arbitration win last year has forced the issue of increased arbitration values, and the Phils, perhaps with a lot of foresight that should be credited to new GM Ruben Amaro, have submitted an arbitration number of $14 million. That number will force the arbitrator to side with them. In fact, that number is even a bit out of line from past arbitration values. Howard is worth about $11 million right now as a 2nd year arbitration player, using past data, and would be worth a large contract according to SPRO if he were to sign long term, somewhere in the range of 7 years and $123 million. Remember, there are three arbitration years in that figure plus four years of free agency, so take that into account when you compare it to the Teixeira contract at $22.5 million per for pure free agent years.

Ryan Howard will not win his arbitration case this year, at least according to us. Now we'll have to see just whether we're right this year or not.

Ryan Howard
Name, Year, Team, Lg, HR, RBI, AVE., Age, PEVA

Howard Ryan 2004 PHI NL 2 5 0.282 25 0.200
Howard Ryan 2005 PHI NL 22 63 0.288 26 3.695
Howard Ryan 2006 PHI NL 58 149 0.313 27 35.507
Howard Ryan 2007 PHI NL 47 136 0.268 28 16.923
Howard Ryan 2008 PHI NL 48 146 0.251 29 19.227
Howard Ryan Total 177 499 0.279 75.552

* Age at end of year