Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Explaining PEVA - #3 W, SV, SV+W

Let's talk about those pitchers. Past the pitching durability stats (Games, Games Started, and Innings Pitched), two of the remaining four categories that go into the PEVA Player Rating index and Player Grades are pretty straightforward (ERA and WHIP9) in how they fit into the system. One, the dependent category of pitching wins, saves, and wins plus saves, is not that much harder to apply, although it is divided into those three sub-categories.

So when you say subcategories, do you mean to say that Wins is a subcategory worth 1/3 of the value, with Saves and Wins Plus Saves each worth the same?

Short answer would be no. These subcategories are independent of each other, and the pitcher receives a PEVA factor value based on the highest value of the three on the scale from MAX to AVE. to MIN. So if a pitcher has a higher factor of wins compared to the MAX/AVE/MIN, then he does for saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, or wins plus saves compared to MAX/AVE/MIN, then that's the factor he gets.

Why so complicated?

It's really not that complicated. A starting pitcher needs to be based on how he performs in the most important DEPENDENT category in the game for a starting pitcher, and that would be WINS. But a relief pitcher, particularly a closer whose value per payroll has risen in some true measure to the rise in SAVES, needs a DEPENDENT category that is important to his role. For the pitcher who is neither a true starter or true closer, i.e. spends the majority of the year in neither role, it is unfair to base his DEPENDENT category factor on either by themselves, therefore the use of WINS PLUS SAVES.

What does the term DEPENDENT category mean? It means that the total of wins or saves has as much to do with the team as it does the individual player. There is only one DEPENDENT Production category in use for pitchers (W/S/W+SV) as there is for batters (Run Production).

USE/DURABILITY - Games, Games Started, Innings Pitched (Pitching); Games, Plate Appearances (Batting)
DEPENDENT PRODUCTION - Wins/Saves/Wins Plus Saves (Pitching); Run Production (Batting)
INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION - ERA, Walks/Hits Per 9-WHIP9 (Pitching); On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage (Batting)
DEFENSIVE - HR per 9 IP/SO to W Ratio (Pitching); Field Factor (Position Players/Batters)

We'll discuss how they fit in in a later installment of Explaining PEVA.

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