Predictions 2009 - MVP

Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Cy Young Award Predictions 2009

MVP Race

Projections 2009	HR	RBI	Ave.	PEVA Pro
National League
1. David Wright, NYM	38	143	.311	32.757
2. Albert Pujols, SLN	41	129	.373	31.978
3. Hanley Ramirez, FLA	33	70	.307	28.902
4. Adrian Gonzalez, SDN	41	137	.285	27.856
5. Ryan Howard, PHI	49	143	.268	25.760
6. Carlos Beltran, NYN	31	114	.289	25.383
7. Ryan Ludwick, SLN	37	115	.295	23.253
8. Chase Utley, PHI	33	106	.306	22.276
9. Chipper Jones, ATL	25	84	.374	22.088
10. Prince Fielder, MIL	38	115	.278	21.436
American League
1. Joe Mauer, MIN	9	88	.324	27.562
2. Justin Morneau, MIN	28	132	.297	26.672
3. Nick Markakis, BAL	20	90	.302	24.727
4. Grady Sizemore, CLE	38	104	.275	23.274
5. Mark Teixeira, NYA	36	134	.322	23.068
6. Matt Holliday, OAK	31	110	.335	22.768
7. Josh Hamilton, TEX	32	133	.302	22.049
8. Alex Rodriguez, NYA	41	122	.301	21.732
9. Miguel Cabrera, DET	37	132	.309	21.192
10. Curtis Granderson, DET	22	69	.282	19.269

Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors. Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.

Most Valuable Player Race - National League

It should come as no surprise, since the best teams are in the East, that the Most Valuable Player race will have a large number of candidates for the top position player from that division. With former National League MVP slimmer and happy in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard, plus teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins there, there's always gonna be a contender from the East. When you add in the trio in New York of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, and lest we forget, future Hall of Fame member Chipper Jones and suddenly not quite so happy Hanley Ramirez, nobody should be surprised by a victor from that division. Of course, Albert Pujols will have something to say about that, as the last half dozen years have proved. And some new players will emerge as they always do. But from the perspective of the numbers at baseballevalution.com, the man we think is on the verge of Most Valuable Player status, and our favorite for 2009, is David Wright, third baseman of the New York Mets.

1. David Wright, 3B, NYN - He's moving into a new park and has been moving in the territory of best player in the league for the last several years. He'll be only 27 years old by the end of 2009 and should be continuing to improve. With remarkable consistency for a young player over the last four years (19.979, 20.464, 28.574, 24.501 PEVA Player Rating from 2005-2008), we expect Wright to improve even further, raising his game into the 35 plus homer territory and Golden Glove fielder arena in 2009.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN - What can you say about Albert? Well, kinda the same thing we've been saying for the past couple years and the rest of baseball has been saying as well. We are witnessing one of the best players in MLB history, who's on track for not only a Hall of Fame designation about twenty years from now, but once he gets there, could be lauded as one of the top ten hitters of all-time. So here he is again, a perennial candidate for MVP. He's still under thirty folks, younger than Ryan Howard, and not ready to slow down any time soon.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA - New contract. Upcoming ballpark with a roof to keep out the humidity. A few rules and he's not happy anyway. But that won't slow Ramirez down. With this much talent only turning 26 in 2009, there's no telling what type of number he might put up, particularly if they push him down the lineup where his skills probably belong. Could 30 HR and 30 SB turn into 40/40? Don't be surprised if they do.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Some people are going to be surprised that Adrian Gonzalez, the first sacker of the Padres is on this list, mainly because he can't really win the MVP playing for San Diego. And with the abiliity of the Padres to finish way behind the pack, he'll even be under-appreciated even if he continues his progression into stardom. However, Gonzalez finished with 36 HR and 119 RBI and 0.510 SLG in that Grand Canyon of a park last year. Keep an eye on this fellow.

Most Valuable Player Race - American League

Twins, free agent sluggers from the Bronx, or an emerging player from what we think this year will be a good team, Cleveland, or a bad team, Baltimore. Well, if his back holds up (we're not prediciting injury here at all, just a number progression), we think it's time to give the second Twin, Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the bigs since Mike Piazza, the nod. Oh, yes, there'll have to be winners of their division, or at least a playoff team, to pull votes from one of the bigger market clubs. How many people really think Dustin Pedroia, was better, or more important, to his team than Mauer even last year? But if they do make the playoffs, and a catcher continues to put up numbers in the territory Mauer has been, look out!

1. Joe Mauer, C, MIN - Yes, it would be tough to pick a catcher with a balky spring training back if you're just doing a subjective analysis, but we're not. We're going off the fact that last year, at 25 years of age, a catcher hit 0.328, was on base 0.413, and scored 98 runs. And we think it's certainly possible that his nine homers will improve, although he's not shown any predisposition for that. Will he DH more often in 2009? Maybe. Will that help his chances for MVP? Not sure, but as long as he plays the majority of his games behind the plate, it probably's not gonna hurt.

2. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - We didn't think Justin deserved his MVP in 2006, but that's not to say anything bad about a guy who jacks 20-35 HR and knocks in over 100 while hitting 0.300. And it's hard to pick which Twin will actually nudge ahead in the race for best of Minnesota, but with these two, it will be a fun time in the upper midwest in 2009.

3. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL - Unless Markakis puts up stupendous numbers or the Orioles suddenly shock the baseball world and get competitive with the behemoths in Boston and New York again, he's not going to win, but Nick is going to continue his surge into the upper echelon of American League batters, this year and in years to come. .300/.406/0.491 BA/OBP/SLG in 2008 at 25 years of age. Things are looking up in Baltimore as long as Markakis is patrolling the outfield.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, we actually think the sleeper is Markakis, but will go with the next player on the list, because some folks in baseball still haven't caught on with the Grady Sizemore train, but that's probably due to a commuter slip on the platform. We think Cleveland's gonna rebound this year and win the division. If they do, a good portion of the reason will be due to Sizemore, their do it all outfielder. Last year, Cliff Lee won the Cy Young; 2009 could be the date for Sizemore to win the MVP.