Well, the Gold Glove Awards have been handed out, as well as our own Silver Mitts, and the debate goes on to just how valid the Gold Glove awards are, or whether they are tainted by the perception of how a player used to field versus how he fields today. Never was that way, or at least to this level. Prior to the debacles of Rafael Palmeiro winning the award for first base in a season (think that was 1999) when he DH'd almost all the time, and the year Bobby Abreu won the gold glove for the outfield. Just ask any Philadelphia Phillies fan who watched Bobby tiptoe his way thru the field in 2005 whether he even deserved to be listed in the top half of all outfielders and you'll get a ribald answer on that.
So this year we have the tried and true Gold Glove winners like Jeter and Torii Hunter and Ichiro who got a lot of votes on past glory, but some new and deserving winners, too, in Adam Jones and Ryan Zimmerman. But where do they all really rank, in our opinion of the stats, in reality, not perception. Well, let's just take a look for fun. Okay.
1B - Gold Glove winners Mark Texeira and Adrian Gonzelez. Both are good fielders, durable and skilled, although in 2009, there might have been better candidates. First, let's admit. First base is a difficult position to go on fielding numbers to determine who's the best. And it's the position people care less about fielding unless the player is completely hamhanded. Teixeria ranked #6 among full-time firstbasemen in the BE Field Value rankings at 1.19 FV (Out of 1.40). He was surehanded with a 0.997 Fielding %, and was durable. His range factor was low, however, at 8.774. Now this certainly had to do, somewhat, with the type of pitchers he played behind, but does indicate, one factor in determining whether he deserves the Gold Glove. We don't put a lot of stock in UZR due to its subjectivity, although that may be a failing in us. Take a look at the stats of Lyle Overbay or Paul Konerko. Would they have been better choices; you decide. As far as Gonzalez. While we think his bat is one of the most underrated in baseball, we think his glove was below the level of Todd Helton, Adam LaRoche, and Albert Pujols in 2009.
2B - Placido Polanco won both the Gold Glove and our Silver Mitt awards. Nuff said, there. Orlando Hudson has been a stellar fielder and we don't have a lot of arguments with the voters selected him, however, Kaz Matsui was our selection based on a higher Fielding Percentage and Range Factor.
3B - Too close to call really with Zimmerman and Longoria ranked #3 and #4 in our Ratings, so close behind the leaders that you'd be hard pressed to debate the number either way. One note, however, is with Melvin Mora, who topped our Field Value list. Mora, who has played all over the diamond during his career, may not be getting a lot of fielding love based on that past flexibility. He has turned himself into a fine third baseman.
SS - Derek Jeter is not one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball. #12 in our Field Value Rankings of Full-Time SS. He is solid, and gets on a highlight reel or two because of individual heady plays, but Jeter does not get to a whole lot of balls and there are better shortstops in the American League such as the youngster Erick Aybar. Jimmy Rollins, despite the perception, does not get to the greatest amount of balls, either, just slightly more than Jeter, but is one of the most surehanded fielders in baseball with the most accurate strong arm for a shortstop I've ever seen. No problem with his being given a Gold Glove, although the extra range of Troy Tulowitski merits our own Silver Mitt.
C - Yadier Molina has received both GG and SM awards, which he richly deserves. Joe Mauer, who we love as a player, get the benefit of the doubt from some voters due to his prowess overall. Gerald Laird, however, is more deserving, to us, of the fielding merits. He led Mauer in all categories of FV. More IP. Higher FPCT. Better Range. Higher Caught Stealing Percentage. Nod should have gone to Laird.
OF - The National League pretty much got it right with Kemp, Bourn, and Victorino, even though there was a slight edge to Nate McLouth, as far as FV (Field Value) is concerned. Too close to call to quibble. But in the American League, with the exception of Adam Jones, there was a whole lot of legacy voting going on. Ichiro has been a great fielder and still performs well, but there are a good amount of younger outfielders who now field as well or better. Same true for Torii Hunter, although we've always thought he was overvalued as a fielder outside the highlight reel catches he's famous for. In 2009, Ichiro ranked #54 in OF Field Value, too far down to consider him Gold Glove caliber. Hunter ranked #24. Now we'll admit that players such as Jason Bay, whose stats are marginalized, and rightfully so in some cases, by playing in front of the Green Monster, but the stats of David DeJesus and Ryan Sweeney show that they should be considered Gold Glove worthy in the future.
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009. Show all posts
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
Predictions 2009 - Cy Young Race
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2009
Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.
Cy Young Award Race - National League
Will there be a repeat performer from the west coast bay with the powerful arm and new teammate with Cy Young pedigree? What about a second banana in the desert overcoming his better known colleague for the top prize? Or could it be a player with a model wife and Dancing With the Stars affinity, plus last year's playoff awards, to take the step forward and claim the pitching prize in the National League in 2009. The numbers point toward a close race, and a very slight nod, to repeats, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if a Haren or a Hamels jumps past them.
1. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN - Almost every scout in baseball expected Lincecum to be a great pitcher, but the surprise was, he became that man in 2008. But there's no reason to expect him to stop now. With 265 strikeouts and a 2.62 ERA, even if it's in a pitcher's park, the power hurler from San Francisco now even has a Cy Young mentor in Randy Johnson, but of course, has already proven he does not need it. If Tim puts a second year together that mirrors in any way last year's performance, whoa. And don't be surprised if he does.
2. Brandon Webb, SP, ARI - Somebody wake up the neighbors in the desert and tell them the natives are restless. Oh, not due to a concern about illegal immigration or Mexican sovereignty, but because we still don't think Mr. Webb gets enough credit for his career. No, he's not gonna strikeout out 265 batters, but will give you 175-200 K, 200 IP, 30-35 Starts, and a whole lot of wins. With PEVA Player Ratings of 13.770, 11.349, 14.087, 36.142, 35.177, 31.968 since 2003, what more needs to be said.
3. Danny Haren, SP, ARI - Second banana. Great pitcher. Last year Haren emerged from the shadows, but perhaps only slightly from a national perspective. But even with a pitcher on his own staff playing the shadow game, Haren put up numbers with Webb prowess. Four straight years of over 200 IP point to his durability, and the quality of his pitching now speaks volumes for themselves.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, you'd have to have been sleeping through last year's playoffs to miss the work Cole Hamels did for the Phillies, and this is far from an unknown, typical sleeper pick. We just like him. And think that he has an uncanny ability to pitch well in big games, overcome a hitter's ballpark, and win. Remember, last year his 14 wins were well below what they should have been. The stellar bullpen hiccuped behind Hamels more than anyone else. If he'd have won 20, we would have been talking about Hamels for Cy Young in 2008. We think we will be talking about him this year.
Cy Young Award Race - American League
With Sabathia back in the American League, the race for the Cy Young looks like a real doozy. From Roy north of the border to a Shields in Florida, the arms of the American League will really be throwing a six month race for the best pitcher in the junior circuit. And lest we think that beantown will not be represented in the race, we think that any of four Red Sox hurlers could win the whole thing. And wouldn't you know it, we left last year's winner for last, just like most people are doing. But you know, somehow we don't think Cliff Lee was a fluke. But we still don't think he'll win. We think Mr. Halladay will reclaim the crown.
1. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR - 20-11, 2.46 ERA, 246.3 IP and he was overshadowed by Mr. Lee last year and rightfully finished second in the Cy Young race last year. But we expect that outcome could be reversed in 2009, at least at the top. Still in his prime at 32 years of age in 2009, there's no reason to think Halladay can't approach last year's numbers that added up to one of the best year's for pitching in baseball history, yet not good enough for Cy.
2. C.C Sabathia, SP, NYA - Well, his team should win a lot of games and it's doubtful he'll be traded in mid-season like last year, which surely hurt his chances in either Cy Young race. And while we think that any pitcher who is given a contract in that stratosphere shows a good measure of club insanity, the last two seasons of Sabathia starts have been spectacular. No, he did not win 20 games either year, but this isn't 1970 anymore. We fully expect C.C. to help the Bombers in their quest to unseat Boston and Tampa Bay in the division.
3. Cliff Lee, SP, ARI - Was there a more unsung, and in many ways, disrespected pitching season his baseball history? Most people think it was a fluke. Maybe so. But if that's the case. What a fluke! 22-3 and a PEVA Player Rating that ranked the 21st best pitching season in history. Not since Mort Cooper in 1942 did a pitcher pop up with a season that good after a non-stellar former career, and it likely took war year diminution of talent to produce that. Now Lee had good years before, with double digit wins, yet nothing to suggest his year in 2008. But until we're told by his stats that this was a fluke, we're just gonna believe that the light came on late, but that it still came on, and he'll be a factor in 2009.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Let's come right out and say it. The numbers suggest that Jonathan Papelbon could go forward this year and have one of the best seasons for a relief pitcher ever. We'll believe it when we see it, but if that's true, it would give us one hell of a sleeper in the Cy Young race to talk about. He's been adding up his total in saves for the last three years; 35, 37, and 41, respectively, and if the Red Sox win as many games as we think they could, that number could grow substantially, perhaps into KRod territory, with a lot better supporting numbers beneath them.
Player Predictions 2009
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2009
Cy Young Race
| Projections 2009 | W | L | SV | ERA | PEVA Pro |
| National League | |||||
| 1. Tim Licecum, SFN | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2.64 | 37.534 |
| 2. Brandon Webb, ARI | 25 | 8 | 0 | 3.59 | 37.491 |
| 3. Danny Haren, ARI | 19 | 9 | 0 | 3.35 | 34.947 |
| 4. Cole Hamels, PHI | 18 | 8 | 0 | 3.30 | 31.287 |
| 5. Johan Santana, NYM | 16 | 9 | 0 | 2.87 | 28.817 |
| 6. Derek Lowe, ATL | 17 | 11 | 0 | 3.48 | 25.869 |
| 7. Ryan Dempster, CHN | 16 | 7 | 13 | 3.85 | 24.699 |
| 8. Ricky Nolasco, FLA | 17 | 7 | 0 | 4.54 | 21.245 |
| 9. Chad Billingsley, LAN | 19 | 9 | 0 | 3.33 | 19.849 |
| 10. Roy Oswalt, HOU | 17 | 9 | 0 | 3.49 | 19.813 |
| American League | |||||
| 1. Roy Halladay, TOR | 18 | 11 | 0 | 3.13 | 45.650 |
| 2. C.C. Sabathia, NYA | 19 | 9 | 0 | 3.48 | 44.627 |
| 3. Cliff Lee, CLE | 20 | 6 | 0 | 3.94 | 40.773 |
| 4. Ervin Santana, LAA | 19 | 9 | 0 | 4.25 | 26.182 |
| 5. James Shields, TBA | 19 | 8 | 0 | 3.76 | 24.057 |
| 6. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS | 7 | 3 | 52 | 2.18 | 23.355 |
| 7. Jon Lester, BOS | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3.94 | 21.199 |
| 8. Joe Saunders, LAA | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3.84 | 19.579 |
| 9. Daisuke Matsusaka, BOS | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2.77 | 18.646 |
| 10. Josh Beckett, BOS | 18 | 9 | 0 | 3.86 | 18.000 |
Cy Young Award Race - National League
Will there be a repeat performer from the west coast bay with the powerful arm and new teammate with Cy Young pedigree? What about a second banana in the desert overcoming his better known colleague for the top prize? Or could it be a player with a model wife and Dancing With the Stars affinity, plus last year's playoff awards, to take the step forward and claim the pitching prize in the National League in 2009. The numbers point toward a close race, and a very slight nod, to repeats, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if a Haren or a Hamels jumps past them.
1. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN - Almost every scout in baseball expected Lincecum to be a great pitcher, but the surprise was, he became that man in 2008. But there's no reason to expect him to stop now. With 265 strikeouts and a 2.62 ERA, even if it's in a pitcher's park, the power hurler from San Francisco now even has a Cy Young mentor in Randy Johnson, but of course, has already proven he does not need it. If Tim puts a second year together that mirrors in any way last year's performance, whoa. And don't be surprised if he does.
2. Brandon Webb, SP, ARI - Somebody wake up the neighbors in the desert and tell them the natives are restless. Oh, not due to a concern about illegal immigration or Mexican sovereignty, but because we still don't think Mr. Webb gets enough credit for his career. No, he's not gonna strikeout out 265 batters, but will give you 175-200 K, 200 IP, 30-35 Starts, and a whole lot of wins. With PEVA Player Ratings of 13.770, 11.349, 14.087, 36.142, 35.177, 31.968 since 2003, what more needs to be said.
3. Danny Haren, SP, ARI - Second banana. Great pitcher. Last year Haren emerged from the shadows, but perhaps only slightly from a national perspective. But even with a pitcher on his own staff playing the shadow game, Haren put up numbers with Webb prowess. Four straight years of over 200 IP point to his durability, and the quality of his pitching now speaks volumes for themselves.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, you'd have to have been sleeping through last year's playoffs to miss the work Cole Hamels did for the Phillies, and this is far from an unknown, typical sleeper pick. We just like him. And think that he has an uncanny ability to pitch well in big games, overcome a hitter's ballpark, and win. Remember, last year his 14 wins were well below what they should have been. The stellar bullpen hiccuped behind Hamels more than anyone else. If he'd have won 20, we would have been talking about Hamels for Cy Young in 2008. We think we will be talking about him this year.
Cy Young Award Race - American League
With Sabathia back in the American League, the race for the Cy Young looks like a real doozy. From Roy north of the border to a Shields in Florida, the arms of the American League will really be throwing a six month race for the best pitcher in the junior circuit. And lest we think that beantown will not be represented in the race, we think that any of four Red Sox hurlers could win the whole thing. And wouldn't you know it, we left last year's winner for last, just like most people are doing. But you know, somehow we don't think Cliff Lee was a fluke. But we still don't think he'll win. We think Mr. Halladay will reclaim the crown.
1. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR - 20-11, 2.46 ERA, 246.3 IP and he was overshadowed by Mr. Lee last year and rightfully finished second in the Cy Young race last year. But we expect that outcome could be reversed in 2009, at least at the top. Still in his prime at 32 years of age in 2009, there's no reason to think Halladay can't approach last year's numbers that added up to one of the best year's for pitching in baseball history, yet not good enough for Cy.
2. C.C Sabathia, SP, NYA - Well, his team should win a lot of games and it's doubtful he'll be traded in mid-season like last year, which surely hurt his chances in either Cy Young race. And while we think that any pitcher who is given a contract in that stratosphere shows a good measure of club insanity, the last two seasons of Sabathia starts have been spectacular. No, he did not win 20 games either year, but this isn't 1970 anymore. We fully expect C.C. to help the Bombers in their quest to unseat Boston and Tampa Bay in the division.
3. Cliff Lee, SP, ARI - Was there a more unsung, and in many ways, disrespected pitching season his baseball history? Most people think it was a fluke. Maybe so. But if that's the case. What a fluke! 22-3 and a PEVA Player Rating that ranked the 21st best pitching season in history. Not since Mort Cooper in 1942 did a pitcher pop up with a season that good after a non-stellar former career, and it likely took war year diminution of talent to produce that. Now Lee had good years before, with double digit wins, yet nothing to suggest his year in 2008. But until we're told by his stats that this was a fluke, we're just gonna believe that the light came on late, but that it still came on, and he'll be a factor in 2009.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Let's come right out and say it. The numbers suggest that Jonathan Papelbon could go forward this year and have one of the best seasons for a relief pitcher ever. We'll believe it when we see it, but if that's true, it would give us one hell of a sleeper in the Cy Young race to talk about. He's been adding up his total in saves for the last three years; 35, 37, and 41, respectively, and if the Red Sox win as many games as we think they could, that number could grow substantially, perhaps into KRod territory, with a lot better supporting numbers beneath them.
Player Predictions 2009
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Predictions 2009 - MVP
Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Cy Young Award Predictions 2009
Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors. Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.
Most Valuable Player Race - National League
It should come as no surprise, since the best teams are in the East, that the Most Valuable Player race will have a large number of candidates for the top position player from that division. With former National League MVP slimmer and happy in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard, plus teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins there, there's always gonna be a contender from the East. When you add in the trio in New York of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, and lest we forget, future Hall of Fame member Chipper Jones and suddenly not quite so happy Hanley Ramirez, nobody should be surprised by a victor from that division. Of course, Albert Pujols will have something to say about that, as the last half dozen years have proved. And some new players will emerge as they always do. But from the perspective of the numbers at baseballevalution.com, the man we think is on the verge of Most Valuable Player status, and our favorite for 2009, is David Wright, third baseman of the New York Mets.
1. David Wright, 3B, NYN - He's moving into a new park and has been moving in the territory of best player in the league for the last several years. He'll be only 27 years old by the end of 2009 and should be continuing to improve. With remarkable consistency for a young player over the last four years (19.979, 20.464, 28.574, 24.501 PEVA Player Rating from 2005-2008), we expect Wright to improve even further, raising his game into the 35 plus homer territory and Golden Glove fielder arena in 2009.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN - What can you say about Albert? Well, kinda the same thing we've been saying for the past couple years and the rest of baseball has been saying as well. We are witnessing one of the best players in MLB history, who's on track for not only a Hall of Fame designation about twenty years from now, but once he gets there, could be lauded as one of the top ten hitters of all-time. So here he is again, a perennial candidate for MVP. He's still under thirty folks, younger than Ryan Howard, and not ready to slow down any time soon.
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA - New contract. Upcoming ballpark with a roof to keep out the humidity. A few rules and he's not happy anyway. But that won't slow Ramirez down. With this much talent only turning 26 in 2009, there's no telling what type of number he might put up, particularly if they push him down the lineup where his skills probably belong. Could 30 HR and 30 SB turn into 40/40? Don't be surprised if they do.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Some people are going to be surprised that Adrian Gonzalez, the first sacker of the Padres is on this list, mainly because he can't really win the MVP playing for San Diego. And with the abiliity of the Padres to finish way behind the pack, he'll even be under-appreciated even if he continues his progression into stardom. However, Gonzalez finished with 36 HR and 119 RBI and 0.510 SLG in that Grand Canyon of a park last year. Keep an eye on this fellow.
Most Valuable Player Race - American League
Twins, free agent sluggers from the Bronx, or an emerging player from what we think this year will be a good team, Cleveland, or a bad team, Baltimore. Well, if his back holds up (we're not prediciting injury here at all, just a number progression), we think it's time to give the second Twin, Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the bigs since Mike Piazza, the nod. Oh, yes, there'll have to be winners of their division, or at least a playoff team, to pull votes from one of the bigger market clubs. How many people really think Dustin Pedroia, was better, or more important, to his team than Mauer even last year? But if they do make the playoffs, and a catcher continues to put up numbers in the territory Mauer has been, look out!
1. Joe Mauer, C, MIN - Yes, it would be tough to pick a catcher with a balky spring training back if you're just doing a subjective analysis, but we're not. We're going off the fact that last year, at 25 years of age, a catcher hit 0.328, was on base 0.413, and scored 98 runs. And we think it's certainly possible that his nine homers will improve, although he's not shown any predisposition for that. Will he DH more often in 2009? Maybe. Will that help his chances for MVP? Not sure, but as long as he plays the majority of his games behind the plate, it probably's not gonna hurt.
2. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - We didn't think Justin deserved his MVP in 2006, but that's not to say anything bad about a guy who jacks 20-35 HR and knocks in over 100 while hitting 0.300. And it's hard to pick which Twin will actually nudge ahead in the race for best of Minnesota, but with these two, it will be a fun time in the upper midwest in 2009.
3. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL - Unless Markakis puts up stupendous numbers or the Orioles suddenly shock the baseball world and get competitive with the behemoths in Boston and New York again, he's not going to win, but Nick is going to continue his surge into the upper echelon of American League batters, this year and in years to come. .300/.406/0.491 BA/OBP/SLG in 2008 at 25 years of age. Things are looking up in Baltimore as long as Markakis is patrolling the outfield.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, we actually think the sleeper is Markakis, but will go with the next player on the list, because some folks in baseball still haven't caught on with the Grady Sizemore train, but that's probably due to a commuter slip on the platform. We think Cleveland's gonna rebound this year and win the division. If they do, a good portion of the reason will be due to Sizemore, their do it all outfielder. Last year, Cliff Lee won the Cy Young; 2009 could be the date for Sizemore to win the MVP.
Cy Young Award Predictions 2009
MVP Race
| Projections 2009 | HR | RBI | Ave. | PEVA Pro |
| National League | ||||
| 1. David Wright, NYM | 38 | 143 | .311 | 32.757 |
| 2. Albert Pujols, SLN | 41 | 129 | .373 | 31.978 |
| 3. Hanley Ramirez, FLA | 33 | 70 | .307 | 28.902 |
| 4. Adrian Gonzalez, SDN | 41 | 137 | .285 | 27.856 |
| 5. Ryan Howard, PHI | 49 | 143 | .268 | 25.760 |
| 6. Carlos Beltran, NYN | 31 | 114 | .289 | 25.383 |
| 7. Ryan Ludwick, SLN | 37 | 115 | .295 | 23.253 |
| 8. Chase Utley, PHI | 33 | 106 | .306 | 22.276 |
| 9. Chipper Jones, ATL | 25 | 84 | .374 | 22.088 |
| 10. Prince Fielder, MIL | 38 | 115 | .278 | 21.436 |
| American League | ||||
| 1. Joe Mauer, MIN | 9 | 88 | .324 | 27.562 |
| 2. Justin Morneau, MIN | 28 | 132 | .297 | 26.672 |
| 3. Nick Markakis, BAL | 20 | 90 | .302 | 24.727 |
| 4. Grady Sizemore, CLE | 38 | 104 | .275 | 23.274 |
| 5. Mark Teixeira, NYA | 36 | 134 | .322 | 23.068 |
| 6. Matt Holliday, OAK | 31 | 110 | .335 | 22.768 |
| 7. Josh Hamilton, TEX | 32 | 133 | .302 | 22.049 |
| 8. Alex Rodriguez, NYA | 41 | 122 | .301 | 21.732 |
| 9. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 37 | 132 | .309 | 21.192 |
| 10. Curtis Granderson, DET | 22 | 69 | .282 | 19.269 |
Most Valuable Player Race - National League
It should come as no surprise, since the best teams are in the East, that the Most Valuable Player race will have a large number of candidates for the top position player from that division. With former National League MVP slimmer and happy in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard, plus teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins there, there's always gonna be a contender from the East. When you add in the trio in New York of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, and lest we forget, future Hall of Fame member Chipper Jones and suddenly not quite so happy Hanley Ramirez, nobody should be surprised by a victor from that division. Of course, Albert Pujols will have something to say about that, as the last half dozen years have proved. And some new players will emerge as they always do. But from the perspective of the numbers at baseballevalution.com, the man we think is on the verge of Most Valuable Player status, and our favorite for 2009, is David Wright, third baseman of the New York Mets.
1. David Wright, 3B, NYN - He's moving into a new park and has been moving in the territory of best player in the league for the last several years. He'll be only 27 years old by the end of 2009 and should be continuing to improve. With remarkable consistency for a young player over the last four years (19.979, 20.464, 28.574, 24.501 PEVA Player Rating from 2005-2008), we expect Wright to improve even further, raising his game into the 35 plus homer territory and Golden Glove fielder arena in 2009.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN - What can you say about Albert? Well, kinda the same thing we've been saying for the past couple years and the rest of baseball has been saying as well. We are witnessing one of the best players in MLB history, who's on track for not only a Hall of Fame designation about twenty years from now, but once he gets there, could be lauded as one of the top ten hitters of all-time. So here he is again, a perennial candidate for MVP. He's still under thirty folks, younger than Ryan Howard, and not ready to slow down any time soon.
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA - New contract. Upcoming ballpark with a roof to keep out the humidity. A few rules and he's not happy anyway. But that won't slow Ramirez down. With this much talent only turning 26 in 2009, there's no telling what type of number he might put up, particularly if they push him down the lineup where his skills probably belong. Could 30 HR and 30 SB turn into 40/40? Don't be surprised if they do.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Some people are going to be surprised that Adrian Gonzalez, the first sacker of the Padres is on this list, mainly because he can't really win the MVP playing for San Diego. And with the abiliity of the Padres to finish way behind the pack, he'll even be under-appreciated even if he continues his progression into stardom. However, Gonzalez finished with 36 HR and 119 RBI and 0.510 SLG in that Grand Canyon of a park last year. Keep an eye on this fellow.
Most Valuable Player Race - American League
Twins, free agent sluggers from the Bronx, or an emerging player from what we think this year will be a good team, Cleveland, or a bad team, Baltimore. Well, if his back holds up (we're not prediciting injury here at all, just a number progression), we think it's time to give the second Twin, Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the bigs since Mike Piazza, the nod. Oh, yes, there'll have to be winners of their division, or at least a playoff team, to pull votes from one of the bigger market clubs. How many people really think Dustin Pedroia, was better, or more important, to his team than Mauer even last year? But if they do make the playoffs, and a catcher continues to put up numbers in the territory Mauer has been, look out!
1. Joe Mauer, C, MIN - Yes, it would be tough to pick a catcher with a balky spring training back if you're just doing a subjective analysis, but we're not. We're going off the fact that last year, at 25 years of age, a catcher hit 0.328, was on base 0.413, and scored 98 runs. And we think it's certainly possible that his nine homers will improve, although he's not shown any predisposition for that. Will he DH more often in 2009? Maybe. Will that help his chances for MVP? Not sure, but as long as he plays the majority of his games behind the plate, it probably's not gonna hurt.
2. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - We didn't think Justin deserved his MVP in 2006, but that's not to say anything bad about a guy who jacks 20-35 HR and knocks in over 100 while hitting 0.300. And it's hard to pick which Twin will actually nudge ahead in the race for best of Minnesota, but with these two, it will be a fun time in the upper midwest in 2009.
3. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL - Unless Markakis puts up stupendous numbers or the Orioles suddenly shock the baseball world and get competitive with the behemoths in Boston and New York again, he's not going to win, but Nick is going to continue his surge into the upper echelon of American League batters, this year and in years to come. .300/.406/0.491 BA/OBP/SLG in 2008 at 25 years of age. Things are looking up in Baltimore as long as Markakis is patrolling the outfield.
Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, we actually think the sleeper is Markakis, but will go with the next player on the list, because some folks in baseball still haven't caught on with the Grady Sizemore train, but that's probably due to a commuter slip on the platform. We think Cleveland's gonna rebound this year and win the division. If they do, a good portion of the reason will be due to Sizemore, their do it all outfielder. Last year, Cliff Lee won the Cy Young; 2009 could be the date for Sizemore to win the MVP.
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It's history, baseball style. Check out our new book, Baseball's Best @ 150. Makes a great gift for the baseball fan. Comprehensive...
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It's history, baseball style. Check out our new book, Baseball's Best @ 150. Makes a great gift for the baseball fan. Comprehensive... -
There's not a whole lot a real good number crunching GM can say. Hey, don't you know there's a recession going on? We can'...
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It's gonna be a surprise to most, but it's just as surprising to us that the subject has not been broached in the debate over Major ...