Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Sosa and the PED story

PED. Performance enhancing drugs. Well, now, after all the suspicions and denials by Mr. Sosa, his name has surfaced as one of the 104 players who tested positive in 2003, and if that's true, is another one of the star players of this steroid era to have bitten the infield dirt, or outfield grass in Sammy's case. Hall of Fame. Gone. Reputation. Sullied. Still rich as all get out though, ... isn't that just great.

The thing is, Mr. Sosa was not a special player even with the PED assistance. I know. I know. He hit all those home runs. 609 dingers. And knocked in all those runs. 1682 RBI is one heck of a total. Sure is. Well, okay, he was pretty good. But pretty good in ranking #82 all-time in Total PEVA Player Rating @ 232.726. That's just below Brooks Robinson and only a couple ahead of Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Jimmy Wynn. The point being, Sammy was only in the "maybe they'll get in category" when you look at the totality of his career, including the fact of the parks he played in, the fact he didn't really play defense, or get on-base that much with a 0.344 career OBP. Oh, but he could smile. And he could lie. And he could make money. To bad Sammy doesn't speak English well enough to lie to Congress on his own, otherwise he could ask for membership.

And if all these allegations of PED use are actually true, and you start to factor in the assistance they probably gave him in reaching those totals. Que lastima. Just look at Sammy's stat line. If you accept the fact that he was a PED user in 2003, and that the home run chase between he and McGwire was a PED chase in 1998, then that covers the six best, and only great years, in Sammy's career.

Let's do some quick math deductions.

1996 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.268 Ave. - 16.064 PEVA Rating
1997 - 40 HR, 100 RBI, 0.273 Ave. - 9.113 PEVA
1998 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.251 Ave. - 13.226 PEVA

Ave. Three Years Prior
37.3 HR, 112.7 RBI, 0.263 Ave. - 12.801 PEVA

Ave. Probable Steroid Years (1998-2003)
55.3 HR, 134.7 RBI, 0.302 Ave. - 24.155 PEVA

2004 - 35 HR, 80 RBI, 0.253 Ave. - 6.719 PEVA
2005 - 14 HR, 45 RBI, 0.221 Ave. - 2.214 PEVA
2007 - 21 HR, 92 RBI, 0.252 Ave. - 3.971 PEVA

Ave. Three Years After (2004, 2005, 2007)
23.3 HR, 72.3 RBI, 0.243 Ave. - 4.358 PEVA

So here's what we'll deduce. Sammy Sosa may have been the player who most benefited, in his stats, from the PED era, if the allegations are true. Even if you say that his performance in those six years would have equaled that of his previous three years, that means a loss of ...

108 HR, 132 RBI, and 68.124 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 501 HR, 1550 HR, and 164.602. And what player neighborhood would that be in ... #218 Best Player according to PEVA Ranking, a drop from that #82, just behind Robin Ventura, Roy White, and ahead of Joe Start, Tommy Leach, and Lave Cross.

But that would likely be giving Sammy too much credit, when you look at what happened in his career after the 2003 season. If you say his performance during that six year stretch would have equaled that average year of his previous three and three years after, that means a loss of ...

150 HR, 253.2 RBI, and 93.453 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 459 HR, 1429 HR, and 139.273. And what neighborhood would he be playing in in that more likely scenario ... #307 PEVA Best Player, just behind Cy Williams and Cy Seymour, and ahead of Ken Caminiti, Roger Maris, Denny Lyons, and Garret Anderson. Do you see Hall of Fame next to any of those names?

But what might be the most insidious of the losses that would have occurred, is the one that would have occurred in his pocketbook. SPRO calculation of the lost earnings in the second, and more likely scenario, would be nearly $75,000,000. Yes, that's $75,000,000.

Geez, even in baseball, that's what most would call real money.

No comments:

Post a Comment