Sosa and the PED story

PED. Performance enhancing drugs. Well, now, after all the suspicions and denials by Mr. Sosa, his name has surfaced as one of the 104 players who tested positive in 2003, and if that's true, is another one of the star players of this steroid era to have bitten the infield dirt, or outfield grass in Sammy's case. Hall of Fame. Gone. Reputation. Sullied. Still rich as all get out though, ... isn't that just great.

The thing is, Mr. Sosa was not a special player even with the PED assistance. I know. I know. He hit all those home runs. 609 dingers. And knocked in all those runs. 1682 RBI is one heck of a total. Sure is. Well, okay, he was pretty good. But pretty good in ranking #82 all-time in Total PEVA Player Rating @ 232.726. That's just below Brooks Robinson and only a couple ahead of Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Jimmy Wynn. The point being, Sammy was only in the "maybe they'll get in category" when you look at the totality of his career, including the fact of the parks he played in, the fact he didn't really play defense, or get on-base that much with a 0.344 career OBP. Oh, but he could smile. And he could lie. And he could make money. To bad Sammy doesn't speak English well enough to lie to Congress on his own, otherwise he could ask for membership.

And if all these allegations of PED use are actually true, and you start to factor in the assistance they probably gave him in reaching those totals. Que lastima. Just look at Sammy's stat line. If you accept the fact that he was a PED user in 2003, and that the home run chase between he and McGwire was a PED chase in 1998, then that covers the six best, and only great years, in Sammy's career.

Let's do some quick math deductions.

1996 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.268 Ave. - 16.064 PEVA Rating
1997 - 40 HR, 100 RBI, 0.273 Ave. - 9.113 PEVA
1998 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, 0.251 Ave. - 13.226 PEVA

Ave. Three Years Prior
37.3 HR, 112.7 RBI, 0.263 Ave. - 12.801 PEVA

Ave. Probable Steroid Years (1998-2003)
55.3 HR, 134.7 RBI, 0.302 Ave. - 24.155 PEVA

2004 - 35 HR, 80 RBI, 0.253 Ave. - 6.719 PEVA
2005 - 14 HR, 45 RBI, 0.221 Ave. - 2.214 PEVA
2007 - 21 HR, 92 RBI, 0.252 Ave. - 3.971 PEVA

Ave. Three Years After (2004, 2005, 2007)
23.3 HR, 72.3 RBI, 0.243 Ave. - 4.358 PEVA

So here's what we'll deduce. Sammy Sosa may have been the player who most benefited, in his stats, from the PED era, if the allegations are true. Even if you say that his performance in those six years would have equaled that of his previous three years, that means a loss of ...

108 HR, 132 RBI, and 68.124 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 501 HR, 1550 HR, and 164.602. And what player neighborhood would that be in ... #218 Best Player according to PEVA Ranking, a drop from that #82, just behind Robin Ventura, Roy White, and ahead of Joe Start, Tommy Leach, and Lave Cross.

But that would likely be giving Sammy too much credit, when you look at what happened in his career after the 2003 season. If you say his performance during that six year stretch would have equaled that average year of his previous three and three years after, that means a loss of ...

150 HR, 253.2 RBI, and 93.453 PEVA.

And that leaves Sammy with 459 HR, 1429 HR, and 139.273. And what neighborhood would he be playing in in that more likely scenario ... #307 PEVA Best Player, just behind Cy Williams and Cy Seymour, and ahead of Ken Caminiti, Roger Maris, Denny Lyons, and Garret Anderson. Do you see Hall of Fame next to any of those names?

But what might be the most insidious of the losses that would have occurred, is the one that would have occurred in his pocketbook. SPRO calculation of the lost earnings in the second, and more likely scenario, would be nearly $75,000,000. Yes, that's $75,000,000.

Geez, even in baseball, that's what most would call real money.

Manny, Steroids, and the Money Train

It's time to put a stop to this. To the continual drip of the steroid juice onto the news pages of baseball, to the careers of what one had assumed was a Hall of Fame player, to the proclivity of a baseball player to harm the game of baseball or even themselves. Oh, I know, how harmed is Manny with all the money he's made. Does he really care about reputation? Or honesty? Or integrity? Or not cheating the game? Probably not. But whether Manny, or ARod, or any of the other supposed cheats of this era care or not, we do, and curing this problem, is not as hard to do as many would think. Okay, MLB and the Union have been moving in a better direction with 50 game suspensions and testing programs for PED's that are currently detectible, but it hasn't gone far enough. On to the new plan, and yes, we'll build on the one already in place and take into consideration you have a Union to bargain with on any new additions to it.

1) The first time penalty should be two-tiered, with the 50 game suspension for those that unknowingly had a PED in their system due to a health store supplement or doctor's script legitimately taken. But, at the discretion of baseball and after a hearing that the player would have to request, if the infraction rose above that level, then a 1 year ban for a first time offense would be invoked.

2) No matter whether it was the 50 game, or 1 year suspension level, not only would the player lose his salary for those suspended game, but he would play the remainder of the year, or subsequent year, (112 games for the 50 game type; 162 games for the 1 year type) at the MLB minimum level (currently $400,000). How harmed is Manny now with the $7.5 million dollar hit when he's coming back in July to make $18 million more for the year? He might think twice if the money train was going to cost him a whole lot more.

3) Any player caught using PEDs would automatically have his current contract revoked. Yes, revoked, Manny would not be due $1 more on the current deal, which may have been illegally obtained due to stats gotten under PED performances. Not one $ more of the $38 million dollars still to come. Any new contract would have to wait until after the 50 game or 1 year suspension and time period of playing under the MLB minimum, per #2 above.

4) #3 above also applies to anyone who admits, or is caught for, PED use, prior to the current year. ARod, you are now playing for the minimum, and the Yankees don't owe you a dime more, if they don't want.

5) All players on the 40 man roster would be subject to a mandatory checking of any prescription with the team doctor to check whether it breached the league PED policy. Not a hard thing to accomplish and it would get rid of doubts, i.e. Manny, of an outside physician making a mistake, or prescribing something that he/she shouldn't.

Would these steps eradicate the problem? Probably not. It wouldn't stop a young Dominican from trying to get his first payday, or a minor leaguer just trying to make the show, or hang onto the show. But it might just get rid of most of the arrogant, self-absorbing, money grubbing players who think they deserve Hall of Fame adulation and record shattering feats, along with obscene, ticket raising salaries, for steroid abusing performances, if they knew the money train was ending if they got caught.

Time to toughen it up, folks, and the time is now!

Give the Money Back

February 19, 2009 - Anybody getting tired of this? Another spring training where the biggest story is a steroid induced hero walking in front of the camera and playing sham wow with the media. Oh, yes, some come across as more humble and truly sorry, such as Andy Pettite, while some as arrogant or self-serving, such as this year's poster boy for the enhanced era, Alex Rodriguez. Now I don't really know who is telling what truth here. None of us do. We can only go with what we suspect and what they are saying. Was it done to rehab an injury? Was it done for only those three years in Texas? I don't know. What I do know is that the penalties the fans and media keep talking about; the veracity of the record book, their reputation, or future induction into the Hall of Fame is not what is going to end this era. And fifty game suspensions or even one year will only go part way, too. But one thing surely would! Tell them to give the money back!

First things first. Alex Rodriguez got his latest huge money contract with the New York Yankees based on several things. One, that he was pursuing the records of Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and that other guy, and that this pursuit was worth so much more to the Yankees than just a regular top of the shelf All-Star level player for the sake of promotion and merchandise. Well, that's certainly gone now. Nobody is going to be making a whole lot of money off a chase that's now tainted. Two, some of the money was given to a player whose numbers included those steroid years. So if he's going to be paid today, pay him as if those numbers were reduced to steroid light. At least that 13.4% light quick math would get you. See former blog articles such as "Alex Rodriguez, Steroids, and 103 More." You know, something like $3 to $ million dollar or so, just for a start. But that is just the start, folks, because here's another plan to stop the madness.

Baseball should void his current contract with the New York Yankees, the one gotten on inaccurate information. Now there's a penalty. You think the current slugger who's thinking about taking growth hormone might think big head twice if his $180 miliion dollar deal could go up in smoke. I'd also try to recover some of the Texas money. It seems the owner there isn't too happy that he paid out good money, ridiculous money even at the time, for a tainted player. But perhaps the more prudent thing to do, on this line of reasoning, is to reduce the ARod contract in half. Yes, cut it in half. And give that half to a program that helps society get off this performance enhancing train. Now, the player shouldn't even have to be forced into doing this; he should do it on his own. But since I don't think many of us believe that most will do that. Geez, they can't come up with a good apology. Then I think for the good of baseball, and society, that a penalty of $125 million dollars might just do the trick.

Let's see, you do steroids and get caught ... you lose your good name, reputation, your records, a chance for the Hall of Fame, and $125 million dollars. Now that's even real money to a sports star.

PS - Now let's get back to the real beauty of the sports and discuss the games, the records, the comparisons. Well, maybe next year.

Alex Rodriguez, Steroids, and 103 More

February 11, 2009 - Now I want to know. I want to know the names of the one hundred and three other players who were so stupid, that not only they took an illegal substance to cheat their way into the record books, or to a better contract, or just to the major leagues, and even though they knew that testing was coming, kept up with it. That stupidity, if nothing else, negates their rights to privacy. And we alll know, that right was breached the moment Balco and the federal investigation came into play. And I want to know, because I'm tired of the dribs and drabs of not knowing who was involved and the start of the next baseball season being tarred and feathered with a story about the steroid ball era. Let's get this out in the light of day, take our final measure of the situation as far as what it meant to that tainted era of baseball, then move forward. Oh, I know, the 103 more won't be a definitive list. It will only contain those stupid ones; there were others who had done things before, and probably after, but had stopped before the test. Yes, there probably were. And that's why I'm proposing a final call and policy to account for this.

Steroid Admittance Plan - In concert with legal authorities, offer amnesty to all players, including the 103, Barry Bonds, Miguel Tejada, Roger Clemens, etc., that if they come clean to what they did and when they did it, we will not prosecute, if that comes up, and we will not penalize their careers in baseball in the future. But why would they come forward if not already caught? The penalty for not coming forward is possible prosecution, and if found out by baseball below a legal situation, they would be barred, not only from the Hall of Fame, but working in baseball ever again.

Once we know what, when, who, and what affect it likely had, then baseball can decide what to do about its records. Baseball Writers can decide, with more complete information, whether any of these guys deserve induction into Cooperstown. As for the records, at the minimum, if the suspicions for those involved hold up, the Home Run records revert back to Hank Aaron and Roger Maris. I don't think that's too tough a deal to strike. It's only fair, and right, and just. No asterisk. They're gone, pushed off to the side. Not unlike the World Record by Ben Johnson in the Olympic Games. Not unlike a horse who wins a race, then is DQD for some infraction of his jockey. Not unlike a high school who used an ineligible player, then had to forfeit the game.

Now to Alex Rodriguez. He has now admitted that he did performance enhancing drugs, even if he didn't know what they were, for a period of time, ... he says 2001-3, so that he could justify his contract. Well, there was no justifying that contract or his new one, for that matter. And Mr. Hicks ought to ask for some of that money back, and so should the Yankees. His stats, which they based the money on, weren't the real ones, after all.

Now whether we believe that he used performance enhancing drugs before or after his stint with the Texas Rangers or not is another story. But he has no doubt now joined those on the list of admitted cheats, with more than a few on the think they did it, but have no proof. And his chase of Hank Aaron's 755 home runs has been painted with a steroid brush, tainted forever. But if we believe his timetable, just how much should he be docked, if at all, for that time period.

Totals for 3 Year Periods, Before, During, After

1998-2000 SEA 125 HR, 367 RBI, 68.542 PEVA Player Rating
2001-2003 TEX 156 HR, 395 RBI, 76.868 PEVA
1998-2000 NYA 119 HR, 357 RBI, 72.912 PEVA

During these three time frames, the park factors at SEA and NYA had an average of 98, while Texas averaged 107.3. If you take these into account, a cursory study of, for example, the adjusted Home Run totals, would look somethiing like this. SEA 127.55, TEX 145.39, NYA 121.43. If you average the three years before and after, you can deduct, that Alex Rodriguez hit 20.9 more home runs during his admitted steroid years than he would have without them, or 13.4% more. Now, a more detailed look would have to include age and other factors. Rodriguez was 26-28 during those years in Texas, which most people consider the prime years for production. But it's a start, folks.

We'll stop our rant here and won't hold our breath for the Steroid Admittance Plan we've proposed. But I do want to know. I want to know those 103 more names, and the names of all the others. I want to know if I should really consider Greg Maddux for the top of the era's pitcher list, or whether Randy Johnson should jump ahead of Roger Clemens. At least you can't cheat height. Well, I don't think you can yet. And maybe Jeff Bagwell is the best hitter of the era, not McGwire, Sosa, or Bonds. ... Or maybe not. It's time to clear up that question.