Congratulations Rickey, Jim, and Joe

Yesterday, the Hall of Fame saw three new members inducted into its illustrious walls, and congratulations should go out to Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, and Joe Gordon. We are not here to discuss the particular merits of each player. That has been done before. But we're here, perhaps, to put them into context of where they stand within the Hall of Fame, amongst the peers that are already there.

Rickey Henderson. This first ballot Hall of Famer is better than most people think, and most people think he was really good. There are 21 leftfielders inducted at Cooperstown, including the likes of Ted Williams, Billy Williams, and Ralph Kiner. Henderson ranks fifth in Total Regular Season PEVA amongst that 21, behind only Ted, Stan the Man Musial, Ed Delahanty, and Carl Yaztremski. With 331.490 PEVA (Career Player Rating), he ranks at #27 among all position players in history, sandwiched between Frank Thomas and Jim O'Rourke. Yes, Frank will be joining him five years or so from now. He may not have had the highest per season PEVA value @ 13.260, some of which occurred because he hung around the game for a few more years after his peak than most, but that still ranks him #12 out of the #21 leftfielders in the HOF. He was also #26 all-time in Postseason Career ranking, and had one of the Top 4 Batting Postseasons in history in 1989. Congratulations, Rickey, ... well deserved.

Jim Rice. A leftfielder as well as Mr. Henderson, Jim ranked a bit lower on the All-Time lists at #13 (224.084 PEVA Regular Season) of the #21 HOF members, although his per season PEVA average of 14.005 was higher at #10. Ranked amongst all position players for his career, Jim comes in at #93, accounting for the 15 years of waiting for Rice to be inducted. We won't belabor the point here, but there are players in this area that are in and out of the Hall. From a postseason standpoint, Rice had only 2 opportunities to shine, and didn't fare that well at #350 on the list, but it was his steadfast and consistent play near the peak of his era that eventually led to his deserved induction. Well played, Mr. Rice. Welcome to the Hall.

Joe Gordon. It took Mr. Gordon a long time to be inducted by the Veterans Committee this year, and although we're not a big fan of Veterans Committee selections over the years, the player shouldn't be given short shrift amongst today's baseball fan. Joe Gordon was a 2nd Baseman in the Yankee heydey and now sits amongst the #18 2nd sackers in the Hall of Fame. While Gordon is not near the top of the list with 127.893 PEVA Player Rating (Regular Season), ranking him #15, his per season performance raises him to #7. Joe missed two full seasons during World War II. With the addition of those War Years, his overall ranking would have pushed his total ranking to the middle of the pack. That's pretty darn good, and explains a top reason why the Veterans Committee decided that Joe should make it. Being a Yankee in that era, Gordon had a lot of opportunities to showcase his talent in the Fall Classic as well, six times in fact, ranking #23 in All-Time Postseason PEVA with 10.642. Overall, his postseason performance didn't overwhelm, but surely added to his candidacy. Great going, Joe, and congratulations on your induction.

Curt Schilling Deserves the Hall of Fame

March 26, 2009 - While most people in the baseball community are debating the merits of whether recently retired pitcher Curt Schilling deserves induction in Cooperstown, with the concensus melding around the thought that he is a borderline candidate, let's make one thing clear from the baseballevaluiation.com Stat Geek Baseball point of view. We think he deserves it! With no hesitation. With no statement that if Curt gets in, it's predominantly because of his stellar 11-2 record in the postseason and three World Series titles. Yes, they are icing on the cake. And of course, they deserve to be reasons why he should be in. But let's get one thing straight. He deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, because for the majority of twenty seasons, and especially during a ten year stretch from 1997-2006, Curt Schilling was one of the best pitchers of all-time inside an era of great piching. Yes, we've said it. This steroid era of baseball with all those prodigious home run totals put up by the Maguires, Sosas, Bonds, and Brady Andersons of the world was not a great hitter era, it was dominated by seven pitchers (Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown), and Curt Schilling was one of them. And at the end of the day, after all the votes have been counted by the BBWA over their fifteen years of eligibility, don't be surprised if at least six of those seven are in the Hall of Fame, plus Mariano Rivera, too.

But let's focus on Schilling here, and the reasons why we think he's high on that list. Curt Schilling has a total regular season Player Rating for his career of 282.056 (PEVA), #19 on the list of all-time career pitchers. Every pitcher who is eligible for the Hall of Fame who has a higher rating already has a plaque in Cooperstown. It's even above the 275 PEVA total that suggests first round ballot induction, although we think the fantastic year five years hence when Maddux, Mussina, and Schilling are all on the list together will be a fascinating vote. Either Mussina and/or Schilling might not make it in on the first ballot because of that. More about that career best list. Every eligible pitcher above 212 PEVA Career Player Rating is already in, except Bert Blylevin, and he should be.

See Best Pitchers Ever - Career for the list. You can download the full list of rankings for all pitchers in history there (pdf format).

And if you don't like to use counting career numbers, but are more focused on a per year basis, Curt Schilling is #34 (this list includes current pitchers with a total career PEVA over 100 whose Per Year Rating will likely fall toward the end of their careers) with a 14.103 PEVA Per Year Player Rating. Every HOF eligible pitcher with that level PEVA Per and above, except Tommy Bond, is already in the Hall of Fame as well. And Tommy Bond is only on the outside looking in because his career was only ten years long.

See Best Pitchers Ever - Career Per Year for the complete PEVA per year list.

Then there's the Postseason data that most point to as the major reason why Schilling should be in. Oh, and that's so good, it should tip the balance even if you don't think the above is quite good enough. Curt's 11-2 record in five postseasons and 133.3 Innings Pitched to the tune of a 2.23 ERA and three rings gave him the #4 ranking of Career Postseason pitchers with 12.443 Post PEVA Player Rating. (Post PEVA is @10% multiple of regular season totals for those unfamiliar with Post PEVA) But of course, that seems unfair, since unlike the regular season, pitchers have an uneven chance of participating. For all pitchers who have pitched in at least three postseasons, Schilling has the #5 best Per Postseason PEVA rating at 2.489. Who's above him. Try Bob Gibson, Josh Beckett, George Earnshaw, and Christy Mathewson. Rounding out the Top Ten with Curt, and you see other pretty famous folks; Carl Hubbell, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Sandy Koufax, Orel Hershiser, and Herb Pennock.

Still not convinced Schiling should be in. Take a look at the Best Pitching Seasons of All-Time. How does Curt stack up there? Well, he had two years in the Top 100. And how does that compare to his pitching peers? Greg Maddux 6, Randy Johnson 3, Pedro Martinez 4, Tom Glavine 0, Mike Mussina 0, Kevin Brown 2. See Best Pitcher Years Ever.

#76 - Schilling Curt 2001 ARI NL 22-6 W-L, 256.7 IP, 2.98 ERA
38.613 PEVA
#91 - Schilling Curt 2002 ARI NL 23 7 W-L, 259.3 IP, 3.23 ERA
37.153 PEVA

But how do you refute the buts?
Q - But he only had 216 wins over 20 seasons, that's pretty far away from 300.
A - Schilling pitched in an era that devalued wins, particularly in the second half of his career, with the ascendency in the role of relief pitcher thus pushing down win totals. But even with that, he compares well with HOF pitchers such as Jim Bunning (224 wins), Don Drysdale (209), Hal Newhouser (207), Dazzy Vance (197) and Whitey Ford (236).

Q - But that ERA's too high at 3.46. I don't want a pitcher in the HOF with an ERA approaching 3.50.
A - How would you have liked to face those steroid batters and the increase in Run Production during his period of pitching? How do you think some of the pitchers of the past would have fared. Plus pitchers like Robin Roberts (3.41 ERA), Phil Niekro (3.35), Early Wynn (3.54), and Dennis Eckersley (3.50) are pitchers already enshrined with an ERA in the same territory.

Q - But he didn't get going quick enough, so it's valid to say his counting stats not being higher is not just because of era, it's because he wasn't very good at the beginning of his career.
A - Curt Schilling had 14 wins with a 2.35 ERA over 236.3 innings when he was 26 years old and followed that up with 16 wins the next year. He lost out on those counting stats predominantly during the two year stretch after that when injury and the strike years cost him wins. But even with that, Schilling won 20 games three times during his career, had a PEVA Player Rating over 10.000 thirteen times, over 20.000 six times, and over 30.000 four times. And in those years, he was dominant, both in victories, strikeouts, postseason performance, and just look at his strikeout to walk ratios during those years, they were truly amazing for a pitcher with his power style profile.

Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame and we'd vote for him on the first ballot. We think he might miss out on that first year, but within the first five years, think the Baseball Writers will see him with merits and vote him in. And he's going to have a lot of pitching company in those years, plus Frank Thomas from the hitter's side. It'll be interesting to follow the election process five years from now. Interesting to see when, not if, Schilling, will be in. Here's one outsider's vote for Curt.

Alex Rodriguez, Steroids, and 103 More

February 11, 2009 - Now I want to know. I want to know the names of the one hundred and three other players who were so stupid, that not only they took an illegal substance to cheat their way into the record books, or to a better contract, or just to the major leagues, and even though they knew that testing was coming, kept up with it. That stupidity, if nothing else, negates their rights to privacy. And we alll know, that right was breached the moment Balco and the federal investigation came into play. And I want to know, because I'm tired of the dribs and drabs of not knowing who was involved and the start of the next baseball season being tarred and feathered with a story about the steroid ball era. Let's get this out in the light of day, take our final measure of the situation as far as what it meant to that tainted era of baseball, then move forward. Oh, I know, the 103 more won't be a definitive list. It will only contain those stupid ones; there were others who had done things before, and probably after, but had stopped before the test. Yes, there probably were. And that's why I'm proposing a final call and policy to account for this.

Steroid Admittance Plan - In concert with legal authorities, offer amnesty to all players, including the 103, Barry Bonds, Miguel Tejada, Roger Clemens, etc., that if they come clean to what they did and when they did it, we will not prosecute, if that comes up, and we will not penalize their careers in baseball in the future. But why would they come forward if not already caught? The penalty for not coming forward is possible prosecution, and if found out by baseball below a legal situation, they would be barred, not only from the Hall of Fame, but working in baseball ever again.

Once we know what, when, who, and what affect it likely had, then baseball can decide what to do about its records. Baseball Writers can decide, with more complete information, whether any of these guys deserve induction into Cooperstown. As for the records, at the minimum, if the suspicions for those involved hold up, the Home Run records revert back to Hank Aaron and Roger Maris. I don't think that's too tough a deal to strike. It's only fair, and right, and just. No asterisk. They're gone, pushed off to the side. Not unlike the World Record by Ben Johnson in the Olympic Games. Not unlike a horse who wins a race, then is DQD for some infraction of his jockey. Not unlike a high school who used an ineligible player, then had to forfeit the game.

Now to Alex Rodriguez. He has now admitted that he did performance enhancing drugs, even if he didn't know what they were, for a period of time, ... he says 2001-3, so that he could justify his contract. Well, there was no justifying that contract or his new one, for that matter. And Mr. Hicks ought to ask for some of that money back, and so should the Yankees. His stats, which they based the money on, weren't the real ones, after all.

Now whether we believe that he used performance enhancing drugs before or after his stint with the Texas Rangers or not is another story. But he has no doubt now joined those on the list of admitted cheats, with more than a few on the think they did it, but have no proof. And his chase of Hank Aaron's 755 home runs has been painted with a steroid brush, tainted forever. But if we believe his timetable, just how much should he be docked, if at all, for that time period.

Totals for 3 Year Periods, Before, During, After

1998-2000 SEA 125 HR, 367 RBI, 68.542 PEVA Player Rating
2001-2003 TEX 156 HR, 395 RBI, 76.868 PEVA
1998-2000 NYA 119 HR, 357 RBI, 72.912 PEVA

During these three time frames, the park factors at SEA and NYA had an average of 98, while Texas averaged 107.3. If you take these into account, a cursory study of, for example, the adjusted Home Run totals, would look somethiing like this. SEA 127.55, TEX 145.39, NYA 121.43. If you average the three years before and after, you can deduct, that Alex Rodriguez hit 20.9 more home runs during his admitted steroid years than he would have without them, or 13.4% more. Now, a more detailed look would have to include age and other factors. Rodriguez was 26-28 during those years in Texas, which most people consider the prime years for production. But it's a start, folks.

We'll stop our rant here and won't hold our breath for the Steroid Admittance Plan we've proposed. But I do want to know. I want to know those 103 more names, and the names of all the others. I want to know if I should really consider Greg Maddux for the top of the era's pitcher list, or whether Randy Johnson should jump ahead of Roger Clemens. At least you can't cheat height. Well, I don't think you can yet. And maybe Jeff Bagwell is the best hitter of the era, not McGwire, Sosa, or Bonds. ... Or maybe not. It's time to clear up that question.

Henderson Gets Company in Hall of Fame Vote

January 12, 2009 - No big surprises came through in the voting announced today for the Baseball Hall of Fame, with swift outfielder Rickey Henderson inducted on his first try, while Jim Rice, the Boston leftfielder, gaining induction on his last, with 76.4% of the vote. But once again, Bert Blylevin was on the outside of Cooperstown, looking in, despite a stellar pitching career, albeit on average to poor teams for most of his career.

There was no doubt to the election of Henderson, the all-time leader in steals and runs scored. His 25 year career accumulated 331.490 PEVA Player Grade points, #27 All-Time among position players, averaging 13.260 per year, #94 All Time (among players with completed careers). Henderson had 3,055 hits and an OBP of 0.401. Jim Rice waited a long time for his induction, partially due to the debate over the length of his career and the fact that his accumulation stats were just below some important numbers; he hit 382 HR, not 400; he got 2,452 H, not 2,500. But the impressive part about Rice (224.084 PEVA, #93rd All-Time) was the fact that in his relatively short career, his per season averages were high (14.005 PEVA per year, #77 All-Time among player who have finished their careers). This is where Rice stands above some other players on the list with similar accumulation stats, including Andre Dawson and Dale Murphy. But Dawson, who's BBWAA percentage has now risen to 67.0, is a likely inductee in years to come.

Once again, however, the love for Bert fell short. Blylevin, with 287 wins, 242 complete games, and 3,701 strikeouts, came up just short with 62.7% of the ballots cast. Blylevin, in our opinion, should be in the Hall of Fame. He is getting left behind due to his 250 losses, due mostly to the ability of the teams he played on. With 271.050 Career PEVA Player Grade points, 21st among all pitchers, and a per year average of 12.320, there is no doubt, in the opinion of baseballevaluation.com, that Blylevin should be in. Will he? We think so, ... perhaps, like Rice, in the final years of his eligibility, or even from the Veterans Committee. Mark McGwire continues to languish, garnering few votes each year. The controversial slugger, mired in the question of performance enhancing substances, will likely be on the outside looking in, at least for the years to come. It is doubtful that he will see election on the writer's ballot. And we're fine with that. If performance enhancing substances were involved in McGwire's best seasons, it is doubtful that his statistics would elect him to the Hall of Fame. And for now, that is our criteria on a subjective basis. Without a pure objective basis to go on, that's the way we'd approach it.

2009 BBWAA Hall of Fame Voting
(Name, Vote, Percentage)
Rickey Henderson, 511, 94.8%
Jim Rice, 412, 76.4%
Andre Dawson, 361, 67.0%
Bert Blylevin, 338, 62.7%
Lee Smith, 240, 44.5%
Jack Morris, 237, 44.0%
Tommy John, 171, 31.7%
Tim Raines, 122, 22.6%
Mark McGwire, 118, 21.9%
Alan Trammell, 94, 17.4%
Dave Parker, 81, 15.0%
Don Mattingly, 64, 11.9%
Dale Murphy, 62, 11.5%
Harold Baines, 32, 5.9%
Mark Grace, 22, 4.1%
David Cone, 21, 3.9%
Matt Williams, 7, 1.3%
Mo Vaughn, 6, 1.1%
Jay Bell, 2, 0.4%
Jesse Orosco, 1, 0.2%
Ron Gant/Dan Plesac/Greg Vaughn, 0
Note: 75% needed for election

Hall of Fame 2009 Candidates - Position Players
(Name, Career PEVA Player Grade, Rank)
Rickey Henderson, 331.490 PEVA, #27 All-Time Batters
(13.260 per)
Mark McGwire, 261.187 PEVA, #53 (13.364 per)
Andre Dawson, 230.234 PEVA, #84 (10.964 per)
Dale Murphy, 228.943 PEVA, #85 (12.719 per)
Tim Raines, 226.257 PEVA, #88 (9.837 per)
Jim Rice, 224.084 PEVA, #93 (14.005 per)
Dave Parker, 202.394 PEVA, #126
Don Mattingly, 193.054 PEVA, #141
Alan Trammell, 189.326, #151
Harold Baines, 188.522 PEVA, #157
Mark Grace, 156.827 PEVA, #246
Matt Williams, 149.951, #269
Jay Bell, 135.350 PEVA, #320
Mo Vaughn, 132.140 PEVA, #333
Ron Gant, 117.848 PEVA, #433
Greg Vaughn, 118.489, #429

Hall of Fame 2009 Candidates - Pitchers
Bert Blylevin, 271.050 PEVA, #21 All-Time Pitchers
(12.320 per)
Jack Morris, 194.913 PEVA, #46 (10.829 per)
David Cone, 185.152 PEVA, #52 (10.891 per)
Tommy John, 182.842 PEVA, #56 (7.036 per)
Lee Smith, 113.816 PEVA, #179
Jesse Orosco, 77.010 PEVA, #401
Dan Plesac, 64.797 PEVA, #503

Career Best Baseball Pitcher List
Career Best Baseball Player List