Lidge Expectation

What should have been expected after a perfect 2009 season, at least perfect from the sense of no blown saves and a World Series championship? Would 0 blown saves have been expected again? No. What was mathematically improbable in one year, particularly with the set of underlying stats that Lidge maintained in 2009, was even less probable for two years in a row. And when you take into account the up and down nature of Lidge's career to that point, one with All-Star level highs and two years prior of average performance, one would assume that the possibility of returning to average performance or All-Star level was likely about the same. But what would come was even less probable, but it has come. Brad Lidge was removed last night from a baseball game in the 9th inning, not because he had blown some saves or been an average pitcher for five months, it was because he was now performing at a level, had the Phillies not given him a 3 year deal worth over $37 million, that would get him into the Arizona Fall League.

And we say this with no pleasure, as the Philadephia Phillies are our favorite team, and we respect and appreciate the stellar season that Brad Lidge gave this town while helping lead them to only the second World Series Championship in team history. But it was not expectation that caused either case to be fulfilled; the wonderful season of 2008 and no blown saves or the season of 2009 when the closer could not find a consistent base at all. It may have been the lack of looking at all of the qualities of a pitcher, but wanting to see only those in the good years.

The 2009 season of Lidge was very good, no doubt about it. But a good deal of credit for that season has to be shared with Charlie Manuel, who used Lidge with perfection at almost every turn. Many of his saves began with more than a one run lead. If memory serves, almost none of them came when Lidge did not start an inning. That's important folks when you think about it. Lidge gives up hits and walks (even last year a WHIP of 1.229, good but not great), but comes through in the end with an unhittable slider when things are going good. This year they are not, giving up 1.816 WHIP and 2.0 HR per 9 inning pitched versus 0.3 HR last year. This all leads to an ERA of 7.11 through September 8 and a PEVA score near 1.000.

But how has Lidge trended throughout his career with his PEVA score (Regular Season).

2003 - 1 Save, 4.396 PEVA
2004 - 29 Saves, 15.433 PEVA
2005 - 42 Saves, 11.321 PEVA
2006 - 32 Saves, 3.112 PEVA
2007 - 19 Saves, 4.858 PEVA
2008 - 41 Saves, 10.887 PEVA

Lidge has been an average to slightly above average pitcher in half of his full seasons, while being an All-Star or slightly below All-Star pitcher in the other three. Expectation. Likely one or the other. And when you start to decipher the contract given in the middle of last year, extending Lidge for three seasons with a 4th year option @ a guaranteed number of $37.5 million,
you can see that the club was counting on the half of Lidge that was All-Star or slightly below.

But his PEVA Player Rating Stats and SPRO Salary Projection numbers indicated all along that you shouldn't count on only the half of Lidge that performs above average level, but consider both. Even after last year's perfect regular season and great playoff performance, SPRO concluded a salary projection for Lidge @ 3 years and $21,644,000. And if you count in this year's performance, it would drop to a 2 year contract and just north of $12,000,000.

And you know, they'd likely be worth it, because in one or two of the next couple years, Brad Lidge will likely rebound to that All-Star or nearly All-Star level closer he is half of the time. We're hoping he rebounds by the time this year's playoffs begin.