Wednesday, September 16, 2009

PEVA EQ and the Best Batters Season

No stat is perfect. We'll start out there. But for the Best Player Per Average Season stat, it was a challenge. And one we didn't come up with ourselves. Thanks to those who made the challenge that went something like this. How can you count a season for a player that was a partial season? And then the counter challenge by us. How can you account for a season in years of differing games, maximum plate appearances, and innings pitched?

Well, it's called PEVA per EXPEQ year. What is PEVA, for those unfamiliar. This is the acronym for the Player Rating in each season that runs from a minimum of 0.200 to a maximum of 64.000. (No player has ever gotten the max figure for a full year.) EXPEQ, a stat used within the Salary Projection model, is our mathematical approximation of Major League Service Time, calculated using a percentage of the season played by use. It accounts for short seasons, and from a player's perspective, the amount of use or potential use he would have gotten considering Innings Pitched, Games Played, and Plate Appearances.

So now we have PEVA per EQ Year (Regular Season), the Average Player Rating for a career considering the amount of seasons (EQ) played. And now for the interesting part. Who was the best batter using this dynamic? Drum roll please. It was Lou Gehrig.

For one of the few times in baseball history when you go through its batting stats, Babe Ruth does not lead in a category, coming in #2 on the list at 31.665 PEVA per EQ year vs. teammate Gehrig at 33.627. Now, of course, when you add in Ruth's prowess on the pitching mound, his value exceeds Lou's, adding about 2.500 points to the yearly tally, so this all has to be taken into context.

But does this mean that Gehrig was actually a better batter than Ruth? No. To us, looking at Total PEVA career, as well as PEVA Per EQ Year, should both be considered, as well as the circumstances at the end of a player's career. Ruth played until he was in his 40th year while Gehrig played into his 36th year. The last four years saw Ruth's Batting PEVA per EQ drop from 34.678 to 31.665. If Gehrig had been fortunate to play those years, his average season would like have been lower as well.

But PEVA per EQ is an interesting, if not perfect value. Just look at the player's who reside at the top of the list. Gehrig and Ruth are followed by Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, Ross Barnes, and Tris Speaker, just to name the Top Ten. That's a mighty fine group of players, including Jackson and Barnes who often don't get listed in Top Tens due to Jackson's truncated playing career and the early days and short amount of seasons for Barnes. BTW. Isn't it time for the veterans committee to look into some of the early era's best and take into account the short seasons played? We know that Barnes' case is hurt by not only those counting stats, but also the fact that he played under 10 seasons. But anyone with a 0.359 career batting average deserves a bit of HOF love, don't you think?

How does PEVA per EQ season treat today's current players? Well, it should come as no surprise that the man of the year, decade, and era is Albert Pujols. If Pujols career stopped today, he would rank #5 on the list @ 28.443 PEVA per EQ. And this year isn't going to diminish that value at all. We're looking at one of the top players of all-time and only that time will tell how far up the career rankings list Pujols will end up at ten years from now.

Check out the full Top 20 list for All-Time Players and Top 5 list for Current Players.

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