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Contract Escalation, How High Has It Gone?

All you have to do is read the headlines in the baseball pages of your favorite online website to know that despite an economy in the tank for many people, that's certainly not true of the baseball community.  With exceptions of Oakland, stands are filled, cable tv ratings up, and more importantly, rights fees are going through the roof.  And how has this impacted the salary structure of baseball?  Well, just look at the recent contracts of Matt Cain (5 years $112.5m) and Joey Votto (12 years $251.5m or 10 years $225m for the most recent extension), not to mention Ian Kinsler (5 years $75m).  We're thinking, and working on the actual number as we update the baseballevaluation.com projection system, that it's climbing near 20% from a year or two ago.  Now, some of the contact are out of line, just as they always were.  But we're not here to debate whether the overall structure is correct, ... if industry revenue increases, it should filter down to the talent.  But the dynamic has changed.  Just wait to see what Cole Hamels will get.  The thought of Jered Weaver money has now been changed to Matt Cain money plus.  Now we think Hamels is a very good pitcher, in the Matt Cain territory of contracts, but it will be interesting to see just where that contract lands.  As Philly fans, we're just hoping it lands in Philadelphia.

Week Two Countdown

The countdown clock continues with a focus on pitchers in the second week for the franchises from Red Sox nation to White Sox lore, plus a bunch of teams in between. And what you begin to see when you start comparing the best better and best pitchers in the PEVA career totals is, ... geez, some teams were much better at hitting than pitching over their history, and for some, it's almost glaring. We're getting ahead of ourselves here, but the Philadelphia Phillies were so bad at pitching over their history that current players with limited years and accomplishments are already in the top ten, i.e. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. And that's kinda true, in many ways, for those from Red Sox nation and explains why it took so long to get those championship seasons going again. In Red Sox history, only four pitchers have reached the 100 Career PEVA mark, while 19 hitters have done the same. But we're not focusing on that franchise today and those four pitchers mentioned, we're going to look at the second franchise in many Chicago hearts, the Chicago White Sox, where it's a bit more even with 11 batters and 7 pitchers reaching that rarified territory. And we're going to keep the suspense going a bit at the top and let you guess later who might top the pinnacle.

#3 - Red Faber	1933	177.153	20	8.858	254	213	28	4086.3	3.15
#4 - Billy Pierce	1961	163.992	13	12.615	186	152	19	2931.0	3.19
#5 - Wilber Wood	1978	140.663	12	11.722	163	148	57	2524.3	3.18
#6 - Mark Buehrle	2009	139.037	10	13.904	135	97	0	2061.0	3.80
#7 - Eddie Cicotte	1920	122.749	9	13.639	156	102	21	2322.3	2.25

Five of the Top Ten
3. Red Faber. He last pitched in a White Sox uniform in 1933 and he had been pitching there for awhile, twenty seasons in fact. And during those twenty seasons, he would win 254 Games, pitch over 4,000 innings, and all to the ERA tune of 3.15. There were two pitchers in White Sox history who were better, but not much, as the 177.153 PEVA Career Points are only 36 points behind number one. Can you guess who that is yet?

4. Billy Pierce. His career was shorter in Chicago than Faber, but more recent, ending in 1961. For thirteen seasons, he would toil on the mound at Comiskey Park and tally 186 wins, a 3.19 ERA, and 163.992 PEVA ratings points. The top two pitchers in franchise history would win more games, although the man in the number one spot only nine more.

5. Wilbur Wood. He won games, he saved games, he pitched alot a knuckle balls. And all that added up to the #5 spot in the career pitching list for the Chicago White Sox in a career that lasted twelve seasons, ending in 1978. Wood's a pitcher people remember. He was interesting to watch. And with those 163 victories and 57 saves, it added up to 140.663 PEVA for his White Sox playing days.

6. Mark Buehrle. Let's get current! Let's get loud! Let's trumpet the man who can pitch a no hitter and give the current White Sox team a chance to win almost every game he pitches. There are some in baseball today who dismiss Buehrle as one of the game's best, because not every game does he dominate. But he pitches innings and wins, pretty darn important stuff. In only 10 seasons, he has 135 wins and 139.037 PEVA. In an era of relief pitchers, that's pretty heady stuff, and if his career on Chicago's White Sox side last another five years or more, you could be looking at the #1 or #2 pitcher in their history. Okay, the ERA's a bit high, but that's a function of the DH and today for a large part, isn't it?

7. Eddie Cicotte. A bit of the antithesis to Buerhle in the fact that his career in White Sox land was short, under ten years, but his record great. He won 156 games and lost only 102. And his ERA can not be questioned at 2.25, although it certainly was affected by the dead ball era he played in for a good portion of his career. In the end, Eddie accumulated 122.749 PEVA Career points in a White Sox uniform, coming in at #7 in the countdown list.

Now, have you guessed who the Top Two are or their mates in the Top Twenty below those listed. Here's the remaining list of Top Two and Twenty players. Listed alphabetically, they are ... Dick Donovan, Richard Dotson, Alex Fernandez, Jon Garland, Joe Horlen, Ted Lyons, Jack McDowell, Gary Peters, Jim Scott, Frank Smith, Tommy Thomas, Ed Walsh, Doc White, Hoyt Wilhelm. For the full list, plus the Top Twenty batters, too, get Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book. Check sample pages at Google Books.

Best Players by Team (Red Sox, White Sox)
Week Two Countdown Sample

Read More @ Google Books

Buy Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book in paperback @ Amazon.com
or Ebook @ Baseballevaluation.com

Predictions 2009 - Cy Young Race

Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2009

Cy Young Race

Projections 2009	W	L	SV	ERA	PEVA Pro
National League
1. Tim Licecum, SFN	19	5	0	2.64	37.534
2. Brandon Webb, ARI	25	8	0	3.59	37.491
3. Danny Haren, ARI	19	9	0	3.35	34.947
4. Cole Hamels, PHI	18	8	0	3.30	31.287
5. Johan Santana, NYM	16	9	0	2.87	28.817
6. Derek Lowe, ATL	17	11	0	3.48	25.869
7. Ryan Dempster, CHN	16	7	13	3.85	24.699
8. Ricky Nolasco, FLA	17	7	0	4.54	21.245
9. Chad Billingsley, LAN	19	9	0	3.33	19.849
10. Roy Oswalt, HOU	17	9	0	3.49	19.813
American League
1. Roy Halladay, TOR	18	11	0	3.13	45.650
2. C.C. Sabathia, NYA	19	9	0	3.48	44.627
3. Cliff Lee, CLE	20	6	0	3.94	40.773
4. Ervin Santana, LAA	19	9	0	4.25	26.182
5. James Shields, TBA	19	8	0	3.76	24.057
6. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS	7	3	52	2.18	23.355
7. Jon Lester, BOS	17	6	0	3.94	21.199
8. Joe Saunders, LAA	20	7	0	3.84	19.579
9. Daisuke Matsusaka, BOS	21	5	0	2.77	18.646
10. Josh Beckett, BOS	18	9	0	3.86	18.000

Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.

Cy Young Award Race - National League

Will there be a repeat performer from the west coast bay with the powerful arm and new teammate with Cy Young pedigree? What about a second banana in the desert overcoming his better known colleague for the top prize? Or could it be a player with a model wife and Dancing With the Stars affinity, plus last year's playoff awards, to take the step forward and claim the pitching prize in the National League in 2009. The numbers point toward a close race, and a very slight nod, to repeats, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if a Haren or a Hamels jumps past them.

1. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN - Almost every scout in baseball expected Lincecum to be a great pitcher, but the surprise was, he became that man in 2008. But there's no reason to expect him to stop now. With 265 strikeouts and a 2.62 ERA, even if it's in a pitcher's park, the power hurler from San Francisco now even has a Cy Young mentor in Randy Johnson, but of course, has already proven he does not need it. If Tim puts a second year together that mirrors in any way last year's performance, whoa. And don't be surprised if he does.

2. Brandon Webb, SP, ARI - Somebody wake up the neighbors in the desert and tell them the natives are restless. Oh, not due to a concern about illegal immigration or Mexican sovereignty, but because we still don't think Mr. Webb gets enough credit for his career. No, he's not gonna strikeout out 265 batters, but will give you 175-200 K, 200 IP, 30-35 Starts, and a whole lot of wins. With PEVA Player Ratings of 13.770, 11.349, 14.087, 36.142, 35.177, 31.968 since 2003, what more needs to be said.

3. Danny Haren, SP, ARI - Second banana. Great pitcher. Last year Haren emerged from the shadows, but perhaps only slightly from a national perspective. But even with a pitcher on his own staff playing the shadow game, Haren put up numbers with Webb prowess. Four straight years of over 200 IP point to his durability, and the quality of his pitching now speaks volumes for themselves.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, you'd have to have been sleeping through last year's playoffs to miss the work Cole Hamels did for the Phillies, and this is far from an unknown, typical sleeper pick. We just like him. And think that he has an uncanny ability to pitch well in big games, overcome a hitter's ballpark, and win. Remember, last year his 14 wins were well below what they should have been. The stellar bullpen hiccuped behind Hamels more than anyone else. If he'd have won 20, we would have been talking about Hamels for Cy Young in 2008. We think we will be talking about him this year.

Cy Young Award Race - American League

With Sabathia back in the American League, the race for the Cy Young looks like a real doozy. From Roy north of the border to a Shields in Florida, the arms of the American League will really be throwing a six month race for the best pitcher in the junior circuit. And lest we think that beantown will not be represented in the race, we think that any of four Red Sox hurlers could win the whole thing. And wouldn't you know it, we left last year's winner for last, just like most people are doing. But you know, somehow we don't think Cliff Lee was a fluke. But we still don't think he'll win. We think Mr. Halladay will reclaim the crown.

1. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR - 20-11, 2.46 ERA, 246.3 IP and he was overshadowed by Mr. Lee last year and rightfully finished second in the Cy Young race last year. But we expect that outcome could be reversed in 2009, at least at the top. Still in his prime at 32 years of age in 2009, there's no reason to think Halladay can't approach last year's numbers that added up to one of the best year's for pitching in baseball history, yet not good enough for Cy.

2. C.C Sabathia, SP, NYA - Well, his team should win a lot of games and it's doubtful he'll be traded in mid-season like last year, which surely hurt his chances in either Cy Young race. And while we think that any pitcher who is given a contract in that stratosphere shows a good measure of club insanity, the last two seasons of Sabathia starts have been spectacular. No, he did not win 20 games either year, but this isn't 1970 anymore. We fully expect C.C. to help the Bombers in their quest to unseat Boston and Tampa Bay in the division.

3. Cliff Lee, SP, ARI - Was there a more unsung, and in many ways, disrespected pitching season his baseball history? Most people think it was a fluke. Maybe so. But if that's the case. What a fluke! 22-3 and a PEVA Player Rating that ranked the 21st best pitching season in history. Not since Mort Cooper in 1942 did a pitcher pop up with a season that good after a non-stellar former career, and it likely took war year diminution of talent to produce that. Now Lee had good years before, with double digit wins, yet nothing to suggest his year in 2008. But until we're told by his stats that this was a fluke, we're just gonna believe that the light came on late, but that it still came on, and he'll be a factor in 2009.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Let's come right out and say it. The numbers suggest that Jonathan Papelbon could go forward this year and have one of the best seasons for a relief pitcher ever. We'll believe it when we see it, but if that's true, it would give us one hell of a sleeper in the Cy Young race to talk about. He's been adding up his total in saves for the last three years; 35, 37, and 41, respectively, and if the Red Sox win as many games as we think they could, that number could grow substantially, perhaps into KRod territory, with a lot better supporting numbers beneath them.

Player Predictions 2009