Predictions 2009 - Cy Young Race

Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Most Valuable Player Predictions 2009

Cy Young Race

Projections 2009	W	L	SV	ERA	PEVA Pro
National League
1. Tim Licecum, SFN	19	5	0	2.64	37.534
2. Brandon Webb, ARI	25	8	0	3.59	37.491
3. Danny Haren, ARI	19	9	0	3.35	34.947
4. Cole Hamels, PHI	18	8	0	3.30	31.287
5. Johan Santana, NYM	16	9	0	2.87	28.817
6. Derek Lowe, ATL	17	11	0	3.48	25.869
7. Ryan Dempster, CHN	16	7	13	3.85	24.699
8. Ricky Nolasco, FLA	17	7	0	4.54	21.245
9. Chad Billingsley, LAN	19	9	0	3.33	19.849
10. Roy Oswalt, HOU	17	9	0	3.49	19.813
American League
1. Roy Halladay, TOR	18	11	0	3.13	45.650
2. C.C. Sabathia, NYA	19	9	0	3.48	44.627
3. Cliff Lee, CLE	20	6	0	3.94	40.773
4. Ervin Santana, LAA	19	9	0	4.25	26.182
5. James Shields, TBA	19	8	0	3.76	24.057
6. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS	7	3	52	2.18	23.355
7. Jon Lester, BOS	17	6	0	3.94	21.199
8. Joe Saunders, LAA	20	7	0	3.84	19.579
9. Daisuke Matsusaka, BOS	21	5	0	2.77	18.646
10. Josh Beckett, BOS	18	9	0	3.86	18.000

Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors.

Cy Young Award Race - National League

Will there be a repeat performer from the west coast bay with the powerful arm and new teammate with Cy Young pedigree? What about a second banana in the desert overcoming his better known colleague for the top prize? Or could it be a player with a model wife and Dancing With the Stars affinity, plus last year's playoff awards, to take the step forward and claim the pitching prize in the National League in 2009. The numbers point toward a close race, and a very slight nod, to repeats, but it wouldn't surprise anybody if a Haren or a Hamels jumps past them.

1. Tim Lincecum, SP, SFN - Almost every scout in baseball expected Lincecum to be a great pitcher, but the surprise was, he became that man in 2008. But there's no reason to expect him to stop now. With 265 strikeouts and a 2.62 ERA, even if it's in a pitcher's park, the power hurler from San Francisco now even has a Cy Young mentor in Randy Johnson, but of course, has already proven he does not need it. If Tim puts a second year together that mirrors in any way last year's performance, whoa. And don't be surprised if he does.

2. Brandon Webb, SP, ARI - Somebody wake up the neighbors in the desert and tell them the natives are restless. Oh, not due to a concern about illegal immigration or Mexican sovereignty, but because we still don't think Mr. Webb gets enough credit for his career. No, he's not gonna strikeout out 265 batters, but will give you 175-200 K, 200 IP, 30-35 Starts, and a whole lot of wins. With PEVA Player Ratings of 13.770, 11.349, 14.087, 36.142, 35.177, 31.968 since 2003, what more needs to be said.

3. Danny Haren, SP, ARI - Second banana. Great pitcher. Last year Haren emerged from the shadows, but perhaps only slightly from a national perspective. But even with a pitcher on his own staff playing the shadow game, Haren put up numbers with Webb prowess. Four straight years of over 200 IP point to his durability, and the quality of his pitching now speaks volumes for themselves.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, you'd have to have been sleeping through last year's playoffs to miss the work Cole Hamels did for the Phillies, and this is far from an unknown, typical sleeper pick. We just like him. And think that he has an uncanny ability to pitch well in big games, overcome a hitter's ballpark, and win. Remember, last year his 14 wins were well below what they should have been. The stellar bullpen hiccuped behind Hamels more than anyone else. If he'd have won 20, we would have been talking about Hamels for Cy Young in 2008. We think we will be talking about him this year.

Cy Young Award Race - American League

With Sabathia back in the American League, the race for the Cy Young looks like a real doozy. From Roy north of the border to a Shields in Florida, the arms of the American League will really be throwing a six month race for the best pitcher in the junior circuit. And lest we think that beantown will not be represented in the race, we think that any of four Red Sox hurlers could win the whole thing. And wouldn't you know it, we left last year's winner for last, just like most people are doing. But you know, somehow we don't think Cliff Lee was a fluke. But we still don't think he'll win. We think Mr. Halladay will reclaim the crown.

1. Roy Halladay, SP, TOR - 20-11, 2.46 ERA, 246.3 IP and he was overshadowed by Mr. Lee last year and rightfully finished second in the Cy Young race last year. But we expect that outcome could be reversed in 2009, at least at the top. Still in his prime at 32 years of age in 2009, there's no reason to think Halladay can't approach last year's numbers that added up to one of the best year's for pitching in baseball history, yet not good enough for Cy.

2. C.C Sabathia, SP, NYA - Well, his team should win a lot of games and it's doubtful he'll be traded in mid-season like last year, which surely hurt his chances in either Cy Young race. And while we think that any pitcher who is given a contract in that stratosphere shows a good measure of club insanity, the last two seasons of Sabathia starts have been spectacular. No, he did not win 20 games either year, but this isn't 1970 anymore. We fully expect C.C. to help the Bombers in their quest to unseat Boston and Tampa Bay in the division.

3. Cliff Lee, SP, ARI - Was there a more unsung, and in many ways, disrespected pitching season his baseball history? Most people think it was a fluke. Maybe so. But if that's the case. What a fluke! 22-3 and a PEVA Player Rating that ranked the 21st best pitching season in history. Not since Mort Cooper in 1942 did a pitcher pop up with a season that good after a non-stellar former career, and it likely took war year diminution of talent to produce that. Now Lee had good years before, with double digit wins, yet nothing to suggest his year in 2008. But until we're told by his stats that this was a fluke, we're just gonna believe that the light came on late, but that it still came on, and he'll be a factor in 2009.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Let's come right out and say it. The numbers suggest that Jonathan Papelbon could go forward this year and have one of the best seasons for a relief pitcher ever. We'll believe it when we see it, but if that's true, it would give us one hell of a sleeper in the Cy Young race to talk about. He's been adding up his total in saves for the last three years; 35, 37, and 41, respectively, and if the Red Sox win as many games as we think they could, that number could grow substantially, perhaps into KRod territory, with a lot better supporting numbers beneath them.

Player Predictions 2009

Predictions 2009 - MVP

Stat Geek Baseball Predictions 2009
Cy Young Award Predictions 2009

MVP Race

Projections 2009	HR	RBI	Ave.	PEVA Pro
National League
1. David Wright, NYM	38	143	.311	32.757
2. Albert Pujols, SLN	41	129	.373	31.978
3. Hanley Ramirez, FLA	33	70	.307	28.902
4. Adrian Gonzalez, SDN	41	137	.285	27.856
5. Ryan Howard, PHI	49	143	.268	25.760
6. Carlos Beltran, NYN	31	114	.289	25.383
7. Ryan Ludwick, SLN	37	115	.295	23.253
8. Chase Utley, PHI	33	106	.306	22.276
9. Chipper Jones, ATL	25	84	.374	22.088
10. Prince Fielder, MIL	38	115	.278	21.436
American League
1. Joe Mauer, MIN	9	88	.324	27.562
2. Justin Morneau, MIN	28	132	.297	26.672
3. Nick Markakis, BAL	20	90	.302	24.727
4. Grady Sizemore, CLE	38	104	.275	23.274
5. Mark Teixeira, NYA	36	134	.322	23.068
6. Matt Holliday, OAK	31	110	.335	22.768
7. Josh Hamilton, TEX	32	133	.302	22.049
8. Alex Rodriguez, NYA	41	122	.301	21.732
9. Miguel Cabrera, DET	37	132	.309	21.192
10. Curtis Granderson, DET	22	69	.282	19.269

Note: Peva Pro predictions for 2009 based on relationship of PEVA 2008, 3 Year RAVE Progression, AgeTrack Progression, and other factors. Peva Pro projections do not take into account injury status.

Most Valuable Player Race - National League

It should come as no surprise, since the best teams are in the East, that the Most Valuable Player race will have a large number of candidates for the top position player from that division. With former National League MVP slimmer and happy in Philadelphia, Ryan Howard, plus teammates Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins there, there's always gonna be a contender from the East. When you add in the trio in New York of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, and lest we forget, future Hall of Fame member Chipper Jones and suddenly not quite so happy Hanley Ramirez, nobody should be surprised by a victor from that division. Of course, Albert Pujols will have something to say about that, as the last half dozen years have proved. And some new players will emerge as they always do. But from the perspective of the numbers at baseballevalution.com, the man we think is on the verge of Most Valuable Player status, and our favorite for 2009, is David Wright, third baseman of the New York Mets.

1. David Wright, 3B, NYN - He's moving into a new park and has been moving in the territory of best player in the league for the last several years. He'll be only 27 years old by the end of 2009 and should be continuing to improve. With remarkable consistency for a young player over the last four years (19.979, 20.464, 28.574, 24.501 PEVA Player Rating from 2005-2008), we expect Wright to improve even further, raising his game into the 35 plus homer territory and Golden Glove fielder arena in 2009.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, SLN - What can you say about Albert? Well, kinda the same thing we've been saying for the past couple years and the rest of baseball has been saying as well. We are witnessing one of the best players in MLB history, who's on track for not only a Hall of Fame designation about twenty years from now, but once he gets there, could be lauded as one of the top ten hitters of all-time. So here he is again, a perennial candidate for MVP. He's still under thirty folks, younger than Ryan Howard, and not ready to slow down any time soon.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA - New contract. Upcoming ballpark with a roof to keep out the humidity. A few rules and he's not happy anyway. But that won't slow Ramirez down. With this much talent only turning 26 in 2009, there's no telling what type of number he might put up, particularly if they push him down the lineup where his skills probably belong. Could 30 HR and 30 SB turn into 40/40? Don't be surprised if they do.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Some people are going to be surprised that Adrian Gonzalez, the first sacker of the Padres is on this list, mainly because he can't really win the MVP playing for San Diego. And with the abiliity of the Padres to finish way behind the pack, he'll even be under-appreciated even if he continues his progression into stardom. However, Gonzalez finished with 36 HR and 119 RBI and 0.510 SLG in that Grand Canyon of a park last year. Keep an eye on this fellow.

Most Valuable Player Race - American League

Twins, free agent sluggers from the Bronx, or an emerging player from what we think this year will be a good team, Cleveland, or a bad team, Baltimore. Well, if his back holds up (we're not prediciting injury here at all, just a number progression), we think it's time to give the second Twin, Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the bigs since Mike Piazza, the nod. Oh, yes, there'll have to be winners of their division, or at least a playoff team, to pull votes from one of the bigger market clubs. How many people really think Dustin Pedroia, was better, or more important, to his team than Mauer even last year? But if they do make the playoffs, and a catcher continues to put up numbers in the territory Mauer has been, look out!

1. Joe Mauer, C, MIN - Yes, it would be tough to pick a catcher with a balky spring training back if you're just doing a subjective analysis, but we're not. We're going off the fact that last year, at 25 years of age, a catcher hit 0.328, was on base 0.413, and scored 98 runs. And we think it's certainly possible that his nine homers will improve, although he's not shown any predisposition for that. Will he DH more often in 2009? Maybe. Will that help his chances for MVP? Not sure, but as long as he plays the majority of his games behind the plate, it probably's not gonna hurt.

2. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - We didn't think Justin deserved his MVP in 2006, but that's not to say anything bad about a guy who jacks 20-35 HR and knocks in over 100 while hitting 0.300. And it's hard to pick which Twin will actually nudge ahead in the race for best of Minnesota, but with these two, it will be a fun time in the upper midwest in 2009.

3. Nick Markakis, OF, BAL - Unless Markakis puts up stupendous numbers or the Orioles suddenly shock the baseball world and get competitive with the behemoths in Boston and New York again, he's not going to win, but Nick is going to continue his surge into the upper echelon of American League batters, this year and in years to come. .300/.406/0.491 BA/OBP/SLG in 2008 at 25 years of age. Things are looking up in Baltimore as long as Markakis is patrolling the outfield.

Best of the Rest - Sleeper. Well, we actually think the sleeper is Markakis, but will go with the next player on the list, because some folks in baseball still haven't caught on with the Grady Sizemore train, but that's probably due to a commuter slip on the platform. We think Cleveland's gonna rebound this year and win the division. If they do, a good portion of the reason will be due to Sizemore, their do it all outfielder. Last year, Cliff Lee won the Cy Young; 2009 could be the date for Sizemore to win the MVP.

PEVA Shuffle Index - Pitching Power Rankings

PEVA Shuffle Index - Pitching Power Rankings

March 4, 2009 - The off-season moves are winding down, and spring training games are under way. Now somebody go to Sleepy Hollow or Chavez Ravine or Delusion Fields and tell Manny that baseball games are being played and that there's a recession going on. Translate if you must. But just who has made the biggest splash in roster manipulation, the ripples in the waters that will extend far into the regular season, that based on last year's performance, will auger well for 2009. Has moving the deck chairs of these players really mattered and just how does it look from here, for now, before even one World Baseball Classic game has been played and bored the rest of the USA?

There have been a lot of changes and more than a few teams have made their case for better pitching staffs. The ups and downs of the PEVA Shuffle Index show just where the table will start to be set once the real games begin. This index is not a projection, folks, but it is based on the only thing we know for now. If the year 2009 has player performance like 2008, where do we stand today.

Who has done the best in the PEVA Shuffle for pitchers, here on 3.4.2009.

Top Five
1. New York Yankees - No surprise here. If you spend two hundred and fifty million dollars on two pitchers, one spectacular, the other good and overpaid, you're bound to see a pretty good bump. And the Yankees pitching staff will be better, barring injury of course, with the addition of Sabathia to the rotation. Burnett we're not too sure of. But going into the season, the additions of Sabathia, Burnett, and others have added 24.598 PEVA 2008 player rating points to the pitching staff, and that's certainly good. How good? Think an extra 12 wins.

2. New York Mets - Just go across the city to the other new ballpark and there's no surprise that the increase in revenue has allowed the Mets to parlay the cash into additional free agent pitchers. For them, most of the focus has been on the bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. But the Mets have added a ton of pitchers beyond them, too, through trades of consequential and seemingly inconsequential metal, through free agency. Some will purely add depth. Some will provide a few nice surprises. Has Tim Redding been brought if for a few Phils games since he has shown a masterly proficiency against the boys from Philly? Will a Dessens or Garcia recapture some past magic? All in all a PEVA Shuffle increase of 21.195.

3. Atlanta Braves - Somebody must have told the folks down south that their trip down the standings was not going to stop if the flow of free agents kept leaving town without anyone to take their place. But quietly the Braves have added a few good folks to the pitching mix that may mitigate the losses at hand. Derek Lowe may not have been the top name on the free agent pile, but he's not that far behind. With Lowe and Javier Vazquez, the Bravos have picked up a lot of potential innings while the staff around them jells. Upgade of 20.609 PEVA.

4. Boston Red Sox - Even though they seemed to be taking a big back seat to their rivals to the south, don't be too surprised if the better pitching staff doesn't reside in Beantown. And if John Smoltz comes back to something near his form, look out. 13.003 PEVA Shuffle plus not too shabby.

5. San Francisco Giants - Big ballpark. Big pitcher. Randy Johnson may be old, but the combination of those two factors, if he can retain any amount of good health, will help San Francisco jump back into the mix in the NL West, particularly if the Manny sweepstakes hits a lottery bump for the Dodgers. But he's not the only reason. Think Affeldt, Howry, and Justin Miller, too. Upgrade of 12.770 PEVA, good for an additional 6 wins of so.

Bottom Five
26. San Diego Padres - And if they got their way, they'd delete Jake Peavy, too. PEVA Shuffle downgrade of -17.081.
27. Oakland A's - Kinda like the swallows coming home to Capistrano. This is a seasonal right seeing the A's sell off pitching and going with youth. And it works, a bit, but is a heck of a way to try and compete. Downgrade PEVA - 20.737.
28. Florida Marlins - See Oakland above, but they have a tendency to play well young. Trouble is, ... look at the rest of this division. For some reason, we think Florida is in trouble this year. PEVA Shuffle - 21.473.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers - What would happen if you base your entire off-season of courting one player and that one player doesn't show, or doesn't show up and play as well as he did the last two months of last season. Well, still not sure if we'll get the chance to find out, but the Dodgers lost a lot of pitching in the off-season in Lowe, Penny, Saito, and others. They've got youth, too. The youth has to be ready to pitch. -29.370 in the PEVA Shuffle index.
30. Milwaukee Brewers - You lose the top two pitchers in your rotation; one which might have won the Cy Young if he hadn't moved from one league to the other in the center of the year. The other, injured often, but when healthy, one of the better pitchers in the game. This will be the year that the Brewer offense better come to play. A loss of 46.396 in the PEVA Shuffle from the end of 2009 till today.

PEVA Power Ranking Shuffle Index 2009